Playoff Pictures, Ideas, and Formulas

Now that the BCS has breathed a sigh of relief, and has two and only two undefeated teams this season, I want to spend some time talking about playoff posibilities - what one would, could, or should look like, and who would be in it.

1. Four team mini-playoff
Let's start with the simplest - a four team playoff, that produces two winners who play for the national championship. The fairest way to do this would be to take the top 4 teams in BCS rankings (USC, Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State), match 1 and 4, 2 and 3, and let the winners battle it out. This system doesn't disrupt the bowls at all, especially with the addition of the "Plus One" game next year. You'd play all the bowls, let two of the big four be the playoff games, and then the two teams standing would go to "Plus One." Alternatively, this system would work if there was a final BCS poll after the bowls, prior to the MNC game, and the #1 and #2 at that point went to the game. Still, that would bear many of the same problems as the current system does.

2. Eight team playoff
This not one of my favorites, but it also has the benefit of not disrupting the current bowl setup too much. Again, the only fair determination would be to take the top eight schools in the BCS rnakings (though an argument could be made to take the 6 BCS conference champs, and the best ranked 2 at-large teams, similar to the current BCS system). In the first, our eight schools would be the four mentioned above, followed by Oregon, ND, Georgia and Miami. Using the BCS conference champs, our field would include USC, Texas, Penn State, West Virginia, Georgia, FSU, Ohio State, and Oregon. As you would need seven games (4, 2, 1), I would propose adding the Cotton Bowl and either the Gator or the Capital One Bowl as playoff bowls, followed up with a "Plus One" game.

3. The Sixteen Team Playoff - My Personal Favorite
I like this setup for one reason - it gives a shot to the have-nots. There are two styles, which I will call the Patterson and the Crawford methods. The Patterson Method would take the top 16 teams in the BCS (which this year would leave out FSU, the ACC champ, but include TCU, the MWC champ). The Crawford Method includes all 11 conference champs (yes, even Arkansas State from the Sun Belt) and the next best 5 teams. Why do I prefer this method? Quite simply, because it still provides a reward to winning a conference, and there is always the slight, small chance for a Cinderella team to pull a couple of upsets along the way. A 16 team playoff could either be played at home fields, or even divvied up like the NCAA baskteball tourney, or could accomodate some of the bowls (14 or 15 of them, depending on the use of a Plus One), leaving the others to continue on as they do now, or even set up an NIT-esque tourney.


But who would our participants be? Here are the Patterson playoff teams:
USC, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, ND, Georgia, Miami, Auburn, Va Tech, West Virginia, LSU, Alabama, TCU, Texas Tech, and UCLA.

Under the Crawford scheme, here would be the playoff field:

USC, Texas, Penn State, Georgia, West Virginia, FSU, TCU, Akron, Tulsa, Arkansas State, and Boise State, as conference champs, with Ohio State, Oregon, ND, Miami, and Auburn as the at-larges.

Either setup has #1 vs. #16, all the way down the line to #7 vs. #8.

Also, to see another version of a sixteen team playoff, visit College Football News's version:
http://www.collegefootballnews.com/2005/Bowls/CFNChampionshipSeries.htm

At the end of the day, what would the merits of a playoff be? No more Mythical National Championship. The champ would be determined on the field (though the field would be determined by polls). No more nightmare like 2004, where you have an unprecedented 5 undefeated teams walking into the bowls. No more nightmares in 2003, where you have 3 one-loss teams, with (mostly) equally good claims on the title game (Sorry, OU, you lost to K State in your conference champ - you shouldn't have been in that game). No more split titles. No more complaints from the non-BCS schools (under the Crawford Method, anyway) that they aren't included or given a fair shot - just prove it on the field.

Will it ever happen? Probably not anytime soon, as the current BCS setup is contracted through 2011. With Congress getting involved, though, and enough pressure from the fans (who, after all, provide the money that these teams get), some playoff, more likely the 4 team version, may eventually be in the works. Until then, marvel at the poll selections made by some of the coaches and the Harris voters, and the ability of the BCS to say that the system doesn't need to be fixed.