Week 11 - And then there were 3?
Back from a bit of a schedule/Time Warner imposed hiatus (a full week and a half to fix my broadband), I've got some more insights about the season so far, predictions for what's to come, and a whole lot of love for my alma mater.
1. The Undefeateds - Now it's done to a troika of undefeated teams. USC, Texas, and Alabama are the only three teams that have managed to get this far into the season without a slip-up of some sort. Are all three going to make it to the end, setting up a BCS nightmare like last year's? I don't think so. Texas has a pesky and very exultant Kansas at home and a trip to College Station coming up. Despite Kansas's impressive win over Neb., and its stingy defense, Texas wins out at least until the Big 12 championship game. The OSU first half scare has kicked some more life back into the Longhorns, and don't expecet either of these games to be close. The championship game, likely to be a rematch against Colorado, is only scary because of Mack's past history to blow Round 2. Texas, however, has enough firepower to roll right past the Buffs again.
USC's path seams to have cleared up, following the losses by both Cal and UCLA. The only real danger to USC, who also seems to have learned the lesson of allowing first-half leads and more from its cross-town rival, is the fact that it still has three games in a row at Cal, against a scrappy Fresno State, and against a UCLA squad that will be seeking redemption come Dec. 3.
Alabama faces the toughest road of all three. With a depleted O-line, the loss of its biggest offensive playmaker, and a stingy defense and some field goals separating them from losses so far, Alabama faces 7-1 LSU, 7-2 Auburn, and, if it manages to get over the hump, either Georgia or Florida in the SEC championship game. Not a lot of talk has been made about Alabama being left out in the cold, but I've got to say this - if the Tide does manage to win all three of those games, it will have as much justification to argue for inclusion as Auburn did last year. In fact, Alabama may have a better argument, as it's non-con schedule at the very least has all Div I-A teams. Do I think it'll happen? No, I think the Tide's offensive impotence will catch up to them at least once in that stretch, but if it doesn't expect even more controversy come January.
2. TCU Kicking Itself Again - TCU has clinched the MWC chamiponship, and is likely to end its season undefeated in the MWC. Leading once again to the question - how did the Horned Frogs manage to lose to SMU? The only more inexplicable lost to date is LSU's loss to Tennessee, which I can at least chalk up to Les definitely not being more. While TCU wouldn't have been in the NC mix, it could've followed on Utah's heels, and help strengthen the argument that perhaps the Big East's BCS slot should be moving westward.
3. Coaching report cards - Enough of the season has passed, and the new coaches this year have played enough that we can start separating the wheat from the chaff:
Top of the class: Charlie Weis at ND, Terry Hoeppner at Indiana (not the worst in the Big 10 this year), Steve Spurrier at SC
Drop-outs: Dave Wannstedt (Pitt), Hal Mumme (NM State), Mike Gundy (OSU), Greg Robinson (Syracuse)
Sophomore Honorable Mentions: George O'Leary at UCF, Mike Price of UTEP. Welcome back from the penalty box, boys.
On the Hot Seat: Bill Callahan (Neb.), John Bunting (UNC), Rich Brooks (KY)
Coach of the Year: Got to give it to either Charlie Weis or Greg Schiano of Rutgers, for doing so much with so little. Honorable mentions to Guy Morriss at Baylor, and Bobby Johnson at Vanderbilt.
Games of the week -
1. Northwestern at Ohio State - Time to see if the cardiac 'Cats can keep it up again. Northwestern's offense ought to challenge the Ohio State defense, while the OSU offense, if it can get moving, ought to be able to score points against Northwestern's suspect defense. Expect a shoot-out, with the Buckeyes walking away with a 45-38 victory at the end. Half of those OSU points will be scored by its defense or special teams, so be prepared for some back and forth basketball on grass.
2. Florida at South Carolina - This match-up between old coach and old team proves far more compelling, following Florida's near loss to Vandy in the Swamp, and SC's team remaining in the hunt for a better bowl bid. Spurrier has managed wins not thought possible with what he inherited from Lou Holtz, whereas Urban Meyer is still struggling to play with the big boys. Florida has the talent - SC has the better coach. This one is too close to call for me.
3. USC at Cal - Not a battle of undefeateds, but still a tough test for the Trojans. Cal is the only team to beat them since in nearly 3 years (the win streak started AFTER the 2003 Cal game), but this is not last year's Cal. No Kyle Boller or Jeff Tedford - instead, the ever-unpredictable Joe Ayoob. Still, this game starts off the grind for USC to win out, and the game is in Berkeley. Expect a close game, but USC prevails in the end 35-33.
4. LSU at Bama - LSU has an offense, at times. Not this past Saturday, though, so I expect a battle of good defenses. Bama seems to have the better defense, but you can't count on all your TDs coming on defense against a team like LSU, and one field goal probably won't cut it. Expect the Tide to stop rolling this week, when the Tigers come to town, in a real barnburner, where the total score may be less than 2 digits.
5. Auburn at Georgia - Another set of Tigers go traveling, when the Plainsmen meet up with the Bulldogs of Georgia. This game may well depend on whether D.J. Shockley is able to play, and if Mark Richt will actually let his backup QB play some offense. Without Shockley, and an uber-conservative game plan from Georgia, Auburn's good D and better O win this game. With Shockley, I think this game is a toss-up, with Georgia getting a slight edge since it's between the hedges.
The Penn State Report -
No game this week, as the Lions get to prepare for one last game at MSU. Penn State is one win away from clinching the Big Ten, JoePa's first BCS bowl berth, and years of "what ifs?" looking back at that last second loss to Michigan. Let's be honest - Penn State would be on the outside looking in if it finished as a third or fourth unbeaten this year. That, and as stout as the D has been all year long, Michigan shouldn't have been in position to win with one second left at the end of that game. However, this year is an unqualified success for the boys in blue, and Penn State has exceeded just about everyone's expectations. We're going bowling, and I think it might be on New Year's Day.
posted by Da Craw @ 1:05 PM
6 Comments:
the sec is hurt, and will continue to be hurt, by the national media's perception that the conference as a whole plays a weak non-con (this may be justified). i have read some columnists who view this as arrogance on the part of the sec, and it could be that voters want to send a message to the sec.
then again, it could be that voters look at factors other than the conference a school is in when voting. voters look at usc, texas and bama, and have determined that usc and texas are the better teams, despite belonging to weaker conferences (supposedly).
be angry at ou all you want, but the sec doesn't deserve a free pass year in, year out, just b/c of their secness. this year your beef is with usc, who has gotten a free pass based on the two previous years (which i also disagree with).
i would love to see texas and bama in the nc. royal would be there and we could dig up bear bryant, it would be great. texas would win 23-6.
joepa, you got to include francione on your hot-seat list. them ags sure like frenching their sisters when they score, and dennis just don't let them do it that much anymore.
I'd argue, Jimbo, that Southern Miss is by far the better of the 6. Let's compare: WAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt to Wac, Sun Belt, and IAA. You cancel out the WACs and the Sun Belt's and you have Southern Miss vs. the Citadel. That's a pretty significant drop off in quality of non-conf opponents. Even if you want to compare Utah State to the Citadel (almost fair), So. Miss still beats out La Tech as best team.
The SEC is year in, year out, one of the best 4 conferences. If you take Nat'l Champs into account, they are the best conference of the past decade (go back further, and best conference clearly is Big 8 on that account, seeing as former Big 8 members are the only Big 12 champs as well). But V4H is right - by playing, generally, a weaker weak non-con schedule (cause let's be honest - non-cons have gotten lamefor the big conferences), and by that I mean an abundance of IAA and Sun Belt teams, the SEC weakens its reputation. Since the SEC tends to do well in bowl season, play some of those teams in the regular season and dispel any notion of weak non-cons.
V4H, you're right - I should've included Fran, though, unlike the others, he has actually managed a winning season before.
I've been a playoff supporter pretty muche ver since 94, for reasons that should be self-evident. Perhaps coming from a school that has had 5 undefeated seasons, but only 1 NC in any of those seasons pushes me in that direction. Nearly the same effect could be had by a Plus One bowl, esp. with the right matchups. Last year, you match unbeatens, and USC and Auburn win out, and play each other (presuming Auburn would've beaten Utah, but we'll never know, despite their whupping of an 8-4 Pitt).
Having the Plus One bowl take the top two teams after the regular bowls maintains the bowl system, plus adds more fairness, esp. when you have multiple 1 loss or no loss teams. Unfortunately, it makes it unfair in years there is a no loss team that has dominated, but frankly, they should be good enough to win just one more.
C-USA: better conference than WAC. North Texas was 7-4 last year - in the Sun Belt. You have to look at the competition.
Yeah, actually, you did have people look at the schedule last year. Auburn got screwed by Bowling Green pulling out and playing OU last year, but look at last year's non-cons:
OU - BGSU, Houston, Oregon
Auburn - ULaMo, Citadel, La Tech
Auburn got screwed, but you can't complain about "bad" conferences when the guy you're complaining about is playing BCS teams non-con. Again, good MAC team, eh CUSA, and decent Pac 10, vs crap Sun Belt, IAA, and decent WAC. OU had the tougher schedule. Auburn still should've played in the title game, but you can make that statement by not scheduling pussies (again, the BGSU and Citadel swap hurt badly).
Look how much crap TT got for playing 2 IAA. Other schools catch hell. But let's take your examples, over the past 10 (95-04) years of IAA opponents:
Auburn: 5
Alabama: 1
Fla: 3
Tenn: 0
Ga: 3
LSU: 3
Miami: 6
FSU: 1 (Central Fla in 95 still IAA)
Penn State: 0
Texas: 0
USC: 0
OU: 1
Ohio State: 0
Michigan: 0
Neb: 1 (2 if Pacific was IAA, but I think they IA in the Big West)
Included are the top teams in the SEC, plus recent Nat'l Champs, and my alma mater for comparison.
Your comment is fair when it comes to Miami - obviously, they've played the most IAA teams in the past 10 years and should be roasted for it. And perhaps my comments about the SEC are unwarranted - though Auburn is flying at No. 2 in most IAA teams played there, Jimbo. As a whole, they're averaging 2.5 IAA teams per team (and those aren't even the bottom half of the SEC). But the SEC teams combined play more IAA than any other conference. K State's powder puff non-cons were an aberration in the Big 12 - it'd be business as usual in the SEC.
Absolutely - I agree with you on that. Penn State would've had 2, mayb 3 NCs in the 90's had we joined the Big East as opposed to the Big 10. And I'm very aware of the polls not providing a fair resolution. How about FSU playing OU, instead of Miami, seeing as Miami beat them, in 2000?
But, I don't think the media has an unfair SEC bias. As a whole, the SEC does play a weaker non-con schedule. Auburn got hurt by that, and by the fact that they started out ranked lower than OU. Why? Performance the year before, which is typically what pre-season rankings are based on, minus loss of personnel.
If the media was so biased, why would the SEC have 4 NCs in the past ten years? Other than Auburn last year, there hasn't been a year where the SEC had a legitimate argument that they should be in the title game. Going back to pre-BCS/BA, etc., is comparing apples to oranges.
That having been said, I won't comment on whether or not there's been a bias against Auburn. Certainly I know that a school can face a bias - look at the four times Penn State went undefeated and didn't win a NC. And I don't deny that the SEC teams beat themselves up, with the usual exception of Vandy (replaced by KY, MSU, and Miss this year). But there's no way of telling how good those teams are if their only outside competition is pure crap. This is a trend overall in college football, one I abhor. Penn State should play Pitt, ND, Alabama, and not South Florida, Cinc., and Central Michigan. I don't deny that, but some conferences and schools are more guilty than others. It's a price you pay a la OSU this year, or Auburn in 03 (with the loss to USC), or Arkansas this year. But it's a price worth paying. The SEC as a conference bears the brunt of it, because they're more guilty of it. K State has been worse individually, and Texas Tech wins hands down this year for wimpiest non-conference sched. ever.
And I think that's my goof on Neb. I caught McNeese - maybe I mistook the Illinois State for N. Illinois or something. Still, the averages are there.
I guess that's why Texas, with a game against OSU, isn't undefeated. Wait, it is.
Or why Penn State in 94, in the Big Ten, played Southern Cal and wasn't undefeated? Wait, it was.
Or Michigan against Colorado and Notre Dame in 97?
No, none of them have conference championships.
Tenn against Syracuse in 98?
Nebraska against Washington in 97?
No - you can play BCS competition in the non-con and go undefeated. To not do so is chickenshit. That applies to all teams, all conferences. To schedule a weak non-con is just chickenshit. I'd rather see matchups in the NC between 1 or 2 loss teams, than see big programs play the competition they do in the "pre-season." So kudos to Texas and OSU, and OU and UCLA, and Arkansas and USC, and all the other teams that have the guts to sign up for a good series every year, as opposed to playing patsies.
And yes, that applies to the chickenshit non-con schedule Penn State has typically played since joining the Big 10. Though, no IAA teams, I might mention. Or Sun Belt.
Non-con games, by conference:
ACC: 3 IAA, 7 Big East, 5 SEC, 2 MWC, 7 Ind., 3 MAC, 3 Big 12, 4 CUSA, 1 Sun Belt, 1 Big Ten
Big 10: 11 MAC, 3 Big East, 2 Big 12, 3 WAC, 4 Ind., 1 ACC, 3 Pac 10, 1 CUSA, 1 Sun Belt, 1 MWC., 2 IAA, 1 SEC
Big 12: 2 MWC, 3 WAC, 2 ACC, 8 IAA, 2 Big Ten, 2 Ind., 9 Sun Belt, 1 ACC, 1 Big East, 5 CUSA, 1 Pac 10
Big East: 7 ACC, 6 IAA, 2 CUSA, 3 Big 10, 6 MAC, 4 Ind., 1 Big 12, 1 SEC, 1 Pac 10, 1 Sun Belt
Pac 10: 1 SEC, 8 WAC, 5 Ind., 1 Big 12, 2 CUSA, 6 IAA, 3 Big 10, 1 SEC, 1 Big East, 3 MWC
SEC: 3 WAC, 6 Sun Belt, 5 ACC, 2 MWC, 7 CUSA, 7 IAA, 1 Ind., 1 Big East, 1 Big 10, 1 MAC, 2 Pac 10
While the SEC is a tough conference, and more years than not the best conference, I refuse to believe that the difficulty of the conference schedule is too much to win. Note I called out modern scheduling practices on everyone - the SEC is just the biggest culprit conference wide. I do have to admit, in figuring this out, the Big 12 came up No. 1 in IAA and Sun Belt, followed by SEC, and then followed by Pac 10. Worst culprit of all time, period, would have to be K State.
Looking at this, maybe the Big 10 ought to have 2 BCS bids, since they play the least number of IAA teams . . .
Oh, and Temple really should have credit as an ACC team this year, seeing as almost half of them played Temple.
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