Week 8 - BCS Poll is Out
After having recovered from the pain of that last second loss to Michigan at the Big House, I return with my thoughts about the season so far, my games of the week this week, and the Penn State Update.
#1 - And then there were 7 - Only seven teams remain unbeaten this week, as PSU and FSU both fall out of the mix. These undefeated teams are clustered, with two each in the Pac 10, Big 12, and SEC, and the lone remaining team in the ACC. So what are the chances to these teams to stay undefeated?
Let's start with Va Tech, who thankfully for it has no undefeated teams left on its schedule. That having been said, the Hokies have to beat BC, Miami, Maryland, Virginia and UNC to stay unbeaten, plus a likely game against FSU in the ACC title game if they run the gauntlet. Va Tech has yet to really be slowed down by any opponent, with their closest game being a 34-17 win over WVU. I think the Hokies have both the talent and the schedule to make it, as both the BC and Miami games are in Blacksburg.
Going alphabetically by conference, we come to the Big 12, with the other Lone Star State Showdown this weekend, as Texas Tech comes to Austin to try to upset the Longhorns. Maybe I'm giving Tech too much credit, but I don't think this going to be the blowout most everyone else expects. Texas has a good D, but a defensive coordinator untested against the craziness that is Mike Leach. That having been said, if it does become a shootout as I predict, Texas still has the weapons to take this one and mow down its remaining Big 12 opponents. Tech, if by some chance they win, still has the potential to struggle with both a resurgent OU and Texas A&M (if they manage to pull their collective heads out of their, well, you know). Texas has the edge, and is likely to be going to Houston to face Colorado (probably) in a rematch for the Big 12 title. Last time that happened, the Longhorns lost, after a similar early season pasting of the Buffs. I wouldn't expect history to repeat itself this year. Look for Texas to go all the way.
Next up is the Pac-10, which also features a battle of its unbeatens, USC and UCLA, on 12/03. I don't expect that game to be between undefeateds, and could be between two one-loss teams. UCLA, while playing much tougher than recently, has had to pull out last minute wins against the likes of Washington and Washington State. With both the Beavers and the Sun Devils waiting for them, I expect UCLA to have lost at least one game before the Battle for LA. USC, meanwhile, has become the Luckjans this year, with three come from behind victories in a row now, capped by the very questionable aid of Reggie Bush to get Leinart into the end zone this past Sat. With both Cal and Fresno State before the UCLA game, USC has every opportunity to lose. Unfortunately, for fans of everyone else, USC has just demonstrated the mojo to pull a win right out of their ass, when you least expect it. Despite the hopes of the rest of college fandom, USC will manage to pull at least three more (probably the other two will be closer than they should be too) wins, and run the table.
Finally, we get to the SEC and Bama and Georgia. We'll take the east one first. UGA goes all the way to the championship game of they beat Florida this year, without a loss. They get Auburn at home, and will be flushed with victory if they manage to steal one from the Gators (very doable this year). Auburn may give Georgia a hard time, but again, the Bulldogs have just been winning this year. If Auburn can walk out of Death Valley with a win, check back with me next week. Bama? 13-10 win over Ole Miss? I don't think so - they'll lose to LSU, and probably Auburn as well. Georgia, meanwhile, if they manage to not get tripped up before the SEC title game, will face either LSU or Auburn, and manage to once again almost go undefeated.
So there you ahve it - my mid-season prediction that Texas and Va Tech should win out, and USC shouldn't but probably will anyway. What does that mean?
#2 - BCS rankings - It means the Hokies get to be this year's Auburn. Texas has a pretty commanding edge over the Hokies, which seems pretty insurmountable at this point if both win out. Again, now that we're here at mid-season, I'll update my BCS bowl picks, and start throwing in some of the other bowl picks as the season continues. Here's what I think the BCS will look like this year: undefeated champs of the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 10 Va Tech, Texas, and USC; Big Ten champ Penn State (I think we have only two touch games left, Wisc. and at MSU, and I think we take them both, even without Derrick Williams); Big East champ WVU (Bye bye Louisville, and welcome to a BCS (kind of) conference);, and SEC champ LSU. Throw in FSU and Texas Tech as your at large teams, and the bowls look a little something like this:
Rose - USC v. Texas; Sugar - LSU v. Va Tech; Orange - WVU v. FSU; and Fiesta - Texas Tech v. Penn State.
#3 - TCU, What the hell? - I'll make this call now. TCU is going to finish out the rest of the season without anymore losses, win the MWC in its first year in, and look back at the SMU game. I guess that's why we actually play the games . . .
Games of the Week -
1. Va Tech at Maryland - One of the remaining roadblocks to a perfect season, the Terps look to be beaten by the Hokies. Expect them, though, to test them as much as WVU did. This one will be won by less than 10 points, but I think the Hokies roll on with a 31-24 win at Maryland.
2. Ohio State at Indiana - Terry Hoepner has done amazing things with the Hoosiers this year, including getting fans excited about Indiana football. The Hoosiers have been playing people a lot closer than expected, and this one is at home. Ohio State may have an off day, but will probably still manage to pull off a win. I give this one to the Bucks, 27-17.
3. Texas Tech at Texas - I went into detail above, but I'll repeat my score: Texas 48-45.
4. Tennessee at Alabama - Who wins this one? Who knows? Both teams have been sporadic, but the edge has to go the Tide, with the game in Tuscaloosa. Alabama 14-10.
5. Auburn at LSU - Ah, the Tiger fight! The joy of having teams with the same mascot in the same conference playing. LSU showed it could gut it out against Florida, and still can't quite figure out how it lost to Tennessee. Meanwhile, Auburn has gotten back on track after the unfortunate earlyt loss to a Ga Tech team that's looking worse and worse. The home Tigers have the edge - it's a night game in Baton Rouge. No matter what happens, there will be drunken revelry all day long, but LSU walks away with another squeaker 17-14.
And now, the Penn State Update
Penn State at Illinois - So we don't have Derrick Williams? So it's on the road? So it's homecoming for the Illini? Sorry, Illini, this is a win. Illinois will keep alive its bid to remain winless in the Big Ten (I feel your pain - I really do), after being whipped by 36-13 by Indiana. Indiana! That, and my boys are going to be hungry for a win. We'll call off the dogs in the third quarter, but we win this one 44-7.
2 Comments:
i must (respectfully) disagree with some of your analysis.
VA Tech untested? really? i must have imagined the 20-16 road game win against an underrated NC State team. with the remaining schedule, there is NO WAY this team goes undefeated. just last week you were saying FSU would go undefeated, and they lost to Virginia... the ACC probably has the most good teams in the country... a team like Clemson might not even make a bowl, but they probably go 8-3 in the Big 12 South...
Texas-Texas Tech. I guess it's somewhat fair to state that Chizik did not face an offense like Texas Tech last year while he was at Auburn. Our Auburn fan can correct me on this if I'm wrong, but wasn't Chizik a defensive coordinator in the MAC the season before that? If so, there is a good possibility he faced some squads like Miami (OH), Bowling Green, and/or Toledo that had ridiculously high powered offenses, although I'm not saying that they run the same scheme as Mike Leach at Texas Tech. Before the season began, I said that a sleeper in the Big 12 was Texas Tech, largely due to their schedule. Still think it's too much to ask them to knock out the Longhorns on the road though. I think the winner of this game goes undefeated.
Georgia/Alabama: I don't know why you are so down on the Tide and so high on Georgia. Is it because the Tide hammered South Carolina on the road 37-14 one week after Georgia beat them 17-15 at home? Or because the Tide sports the conference's #1 defense? If you are going to call out the Tide, be fair and call out the Dawgs. As far as either team going undefeated, I doubt it, but certainly Bama's chances are equal to that of Georgia's, given common opponents. It's a season, not just one game.
(and for the record, I think Georgia loses to Florida...)
And my responses -
I don't count the first game of the season as being indicative of a team's performance the rest of the season, especially when breaking in a (mostly) new QB. Since that game, Va Tech has dominated everyone else they've played. Saying the ACC is great because they play each other well is like saying the same about the Big Ten - parity doesn't mean great teams, and I haven't seen a lot of ACC blowouts against quality out-of-conference opponents. That Clemson win over A&M looks pretty weak now . . .
UCF was MAC in 02, and they were pretty awful. I just think Tech has a tough scheme without athletes, and this year they have athletes, in Henderson and better wideouts than usual. Also, I have to say that the Texas D really hasn't been tested by anybody so far this season, so it's ahrd to say how they'll respond to a team that has moved the ball against everyone they've played.
Bame before Prothro's injury - wins the SEC. After - I don't think so. As far as why I rate Georgia more likely to win out (and then lose the title game), it's because Mark Richt is a far better coach than Mike Shula. Case in point - Prothro wouldn't have been playing if a smarter coach was there. That, and Ole Miss is god awful this year, and South Carolina at least has Spurrier. And I think I did call out the Dawgs, by saying they'll drop one they shouldn't. I just don't think much of the SEC east this year, so I don't think anyone (outside of the bugaboo of Florida) will get them.
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