Week 5 - One Third Down, The Rest to Go

It's been a crazy college football season, and one third of the way in, some big surprises, and some shifts in the game have appeared. Here's my weekly installment on what I think is news in the college football world, followed by my favorite games of the week, and my weekly Penn State Report.

Surprise #1 - No Cinderella - Maybe this comes as no surprise to anyone else, but with Fresno State's 44-14 pasting of Toledo last night, one, and only one, undefeated non-BCS team remains. Give a big hand to Mike Price and the Miners of UTEP. The season isn't over yet, but so far they're our non-BCS survivor. In addition, the C-USA schedule facing UTEP isn't particularly daunting, and gives them a good chance to end the season undefeated. However, that same schedule will hurt them, as UTEP has and will play exactly 0 BCS conference teams. Its non-conference slate this year: New Mexico (a 21-13 victory), New Mexico State, and Texas Southern. Its remaining C-USA schedule: Memphis, Tulane, Marshall, Rice, Tulsa, UAB, and SMU. Not looking too powerful there. It's going to take multiple losses by all but one or two BCS teams to let the Miners dig their way into a BCS bowl this year. But still, best of luck, and I wonder if Bama is wondering if they let Strippergate be too big of a deal.

Surprise #2 - The Undefeateds (so far) - The ranks have been winnowed to 26 out of 119. There's basically four categories of teams still unblemished up to this point. The first category are those that are no surprise to anyone, and legitimate national title contenders. These include Texas, USC, Cal, Virginia Tech, Georgia, and Florida. The second group has those teams that have done well in recent memory, but have always managed to screw it up somehow down the stretch. In this hallowed group are FSU, Virginia, Kansas State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, UCLA, and Washington State. Our third group are those powers on the rebound, maybe, who've done well so far, but are starting to face some real tests. This subgroup includes Penn State, Nebraska, Alabama, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State. The final group are the Fantastic Four of this year's season. Granted, they haven't played much of anybody yet, but these four teams have never been undefeated at the same time. Kudos to Vanderbilt, Baylor, Kansas, and Indiana. I don't know how long the dream will last for any of these four, but bowl eligibility, usually a pipe dream, is only two victories away for some of these teams. Our special fifth goes to UTEP, mentioned above. Not really fitting in any category, let's call them the Utah-but-not-BCS-bowl-bound-Utah team this year. Til they lose, anyway.

Surprise #3 - The Importance of Being Coach - Coaching decisions seem to have more and more impact this season, as opposed to many others. A perfect example of this are the differences between teams with basically the same personnel but a new head coach. Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame has done amazing things with his team so far, as has Frank Solich with Ohio. Urban Meyer at Florida has passed his first test, and made it through, in a situation that the Zooker often lost in. On the other hand, there are the apparent washouts. Wanny at Pitt looks just awful - how many games will it take to post a win against a IA opponent? (I shouldn't complain - it makes Penn State look a lot more attractive to the in-state recruits.) Les Miles, in the snatching defeat from the jaws of victory Monday in Death Valley, shows how important coaching can be. Even Mike Gundy, at Oklahoma State, has looked awful, moving Donovan Woods from QB to CB, and posting such impressive wins as a 15-10 win over the Bobcats of Montana State. The coach is apparently more important than the talent, and this trend has been shown over the years by FSU's drop after losing Mark Richt and Chuck Amato to head coaching jobs, and even Oklahoma's demise since losing Stoops the Younger to Arizona.

Games of the Week - Week 5

1. Pittsburgh at Rutgers - Can Wanny manage a win against a IA opponent? Surely, the new doormat of the Big East, since they kicked Temple out, will provide it. Right? Don't count on it. Wanny managed a loss to Ohio, and with props to Frank Solich, the Bobcats aren't that good yet. Meanwhile, Rutgers has been prophesied for years now to have a big season. While I don't believe the hype, Wanny has managed to destroy a once proud program so quickly that I like the Scarlet Knights chances in this one.

2. Michigan at Michigan State - Can the Spartans keep the momentum going? This is a real test here, as Michigan State has habitually choked, and the Wolverines have often benefited from it. A win here might make MSU the favorite in the Big Ten championship race, and I think the Spartans manage to keep it together for yet another week.

3. Texas at Missouri - The battle of running QBs is on in Columbia, MO. So far, the Big 12 South championship seems Texas's to lose. This game is the second real challenge to the Longhorns, with the dust-up in Columbus being the first one. Let's hope this one won't be as close, and I don't think it will be. Texas, ever since the OSU game last year and coming back from a 35-7 deficit, has displayed a toughness not shown before by previous Mack Brown squads. The talent level in this one is squarely on Texas's side, and Mack still has the edge in coaching. Maybe the Tigers can get Quinn Snyder to shift over, and try his greasy haired hand at football, because Gary Pinkel ain't getting the job done.

4. Indiana at Wisconsin; Baylor at Texas A&M; Kansas at Texas Tech - Time to kiss the dream goodbye, boys. It's been a nice run, but none of these three dream teams will be undefeated by the end of Saturday. Indiana, barring a letdown after the Badgers' emotional win over Michigan and Lloyd Carr, Barry Alvarez's first, will be overmanned and beaten up on the line. Baylor goes into Kyle Field, with a 12th man hungry for revenge over last year's embarrassing loss to the Bears. Kansas, meanwhile, has displayed a stout defense to date, but hasn't played anybody with the offensive firepower Texas Tech brings to the table. On the other hand . . .

5. Middle Tennessee State at Vanderbilt - Surely this one is in the bag, after victories over Ole Miss and Miss State. While Vandy does possess the ability to let this one get away from them, hopefully the Commodores will must enough magic to win this one and go 5-0. In fact, with a conference game against Kentucky awaiting them, a win this Sat. puts the Commodores in great shape to get its first bowl berth since 1982, when it lost to Air Force in the now defunct Hall of Fame Classic. This battle of Tennesseans I think is taken by the Commodores, who know how big this game is for their best season in their team's lifetime.

6. Florida at Alabama - The second big test for Urban Meyer - going into Tuscaloosa. Has Alabama's misfortunes of late been due more to Brodie Croyle's injuries and less on Mike Shula's abyssmal coaching? With a healthy Brodie Croyle, this game may be a breaker for Mr. Shula's continuation as the Bear's heir, and may further enhance the reputation of Meyer's Gators, who look even better after the Vols came back and beat LSU at home at night. Still, seeing what I said above about coaching, this one goes to Florida. Urban Meyer is untested as a recruiter, having never stayed anywhere longer than two years, but his ability to coach with lesser material has been showcased at both Bowling Green and Utah. Expect the Gators to win a tough, close one here.

7. Iowa State at Nebraska - The battle to see who is for real in the Big 12 North. Neither has looked impressive so far, with Bill Callahan, despite a 3-0 start, guaranteed to be making the Cornhusker loyalists question his hiring. Iowa State, which dominated a Drew Tate-less Iowa, looked downright pedestrian against a scrappy Army last week. The battle to see who sucks less will probably go to Nebraska, as Lincoln gives it home field advantage. Still, I'm rooting for the Cyclones to ramrod the Huskers in this one.

8. South Florida at Miami - This game will tell us whether Louisville just had an off week, or if the Bulls are for real. I for one am hoping for the latter, as it makes Penn State's 23-13 victory look that much better. Miami finally showed some signs of life in the game against Colorado, and I expect to see some of that. I think the Bulls may be more talented than anyone expected, but not talented enough to pull off the upset here. Look for a close one, but Miami soldiers on in this one.

9. Washington at UCLA - Why can't I believe in the Bruins? They beat OU, right? What is it about them that makes me think they're not for real? Could it be . . . recent history? That's pretty much it. UCLA did well against an Oklahoma that seems like it'll be lucky to manage a winning record. So far, though, it's opponents have managed a grand total of 2 wins, against Tulsa and San Jose State. Not too impressive. Washington, meanwhile, isn't looking too great itself, with it's sole win against Idaho's Vandals. I don't think the Bruins are as good as their record indicates, but I think they are good enough to beat the Huskies. And probably pretty badly. Look for a 42-17 win in the Rose Bowl this Saturday.

And now, the moment you've been waiting for,

Minnesota at Penn State - 4-0 despite their best efforts in Evanston, Penn State welcomes an undefeated Golden Gophers to Beaver Stadium. I feel good about this game, for a number of reasons. One, the 16-7 loss last year in the Metrodome was due mostly to completely ineffectual offensive production. Two, the game's in Beaver Stadium, which surely gives some advantage to the Nittany Lions in this one. Three, the defense is just as good as last year's, and Minnesota's offense seems pretty much the same. This game, though, comes down to one person: Michael Robinson. Penn State can't expect to turn the ball over to Minn. 4 times, and give up only 13 points like last week at Northwestern. The defense has been performing up to last season's standards, and the new freshman speedsters have opened up the Penn State offense. As I've said before, if Robinson can play like it's the second half the whole game, this game is a toss up, with my emotional gut check giving the Lions an edge, at 31-28. On the other hand, if he play's anything like he did the first half of the Northwestern game, I can see a 35-7 deficit easily by the end of the first half, which the Minnesota defense should be able to defend. In addition, I have to comment on Galen Hall's play-calling as OC. So you have Tony Hunt, who seems to average about 6-7 yards a carry, a questionable QB, and admittedly some real talent at wideout. Why, though, do you feel compelled to throw every first down? With some more running plays called on first and second down, and fewer mistakes from Robinson, this game is Penn State's to lose in a close battle. I call it 31-28. With four turnovers in the first half, though, this one goes to the Gophers, 49-28, and the battle to return to a bowl game gets that much harder.