Week 6 - What Will Happen Next?

Here it is, Week 6, and the crazy world that is college football continues to surprise us. Here are my thoughts on some of the aspects of this year's season, my games of the week, and of course, the Penn State report.

1. Sorry, You're Not Invited - The BCS Cinderella game is over, with UTEP's loss last week. In fact, the ranks of all the undefeateds were winnowed in a number of games last week. All 4 of the unlikely unbeatens (Vandy, Kansas, Baylor, and Indiana) lost, with Vandy's being the most heart breaking. Vandy - you beat two SEC opponents, and lost to MTSU? A Sun Belt team? Really? Baylor, on the other hand, nearly upset the Aggies, in a game that many (including myself) expected to be a vengeful romp after A&M's loss lost year at Baylor. The Bears almost pulled off the upset AT KYLE FIELD!!! Longhorn fans, I think it's time to stop worrying about your visit to College Station.

2. Survivor - College Football - The ranks of the unbeatens have been winnowed again, with a grand total of 12 teams still unbeaten. Michigan State has done it again, by dropping a game against the Wolverines with an utter lack of defense. Florida lost to a resurgent Bama, only to watch the Tide lose its most exciting playmaker for the rest of the season. So of who's left, who's likely to keep the dream alive? USC and Cal are still both unbeaten, which is likely to stay true until their match-up on Nov. 12. Look for the winner of that game to be the Pac-1o champion, as UCLA, also undefeated, looked pretty awful against Washington, and even if it beats USC, is likely to have picked up a loss or two on the way. Penn State's dream season has a good shot at ending this week, when the Buckeyes come to town, though I think the game is winnable by the Nittany Lions if they play like they did against Minnesota. Alabama will feel the loss of Prothro, and Mike Shula has a habit of losing at least one game he shouldn't. Georgia remains undefeated, and pretty unimpressive, but with Tennessee underachieving and Florida's vulnerabilities highlighted this past weekend, has a good shot at making it all the way. Wisconsin could have a dream season, after its win against Michigan and no Ohio State on the schedule, but games against Minnesota, Purdue, at Penn State, and at Iowa jeopardize an undefeated season. Texas will almost certainly be able to contain Texas Tech, knocking them out, and should remain undefeated if Mack Brown can get over the hump and whup the Sooners this weekend. Nebraska will fall eventually, as its offense seems almost as bad as Penn State's last year. FSU and Va Tech are both likely to run the board, with a showdown in the ACC Championship game. All signs are starting to point at potentially 3 or maybe even 4 unbeaten teams by season's end. Heck, if Penn State or Wisconsin can run the table along with Georgia, Texas, USC/Cal. and FSU/Va Tech, we'll have a controversy never seen before regarding the BCS championship. Still, it's only the second week of October - expect some more losses by the 12 teams left standing, some quite possibly coming this week.

Games of the Week

1. Texas vs. OU - How can you not lead off with this one? Mack, this should be your year. TCU beat the Sooners. Watch that tape. UCLA beat the Sooners. Watch that tape. Stop Adrian Peterson, throw deep, and win the game. Or, return to your form years' past, and play so conservatively even Pat Buchanan thinks you're too far right. As much talent as the Horns have, their coach holds them back on this one, and I'm calling it OU over the Longhorns, with some key turnovers a la Missouri, 14-10.

2. Illinois at Indiana - The battle for last place in the Big Ten, interesting only to see how the conference's two first year coaches handle each other. Terry Hoeppner has kept the Hoosiers competitive, which is more than the Zooker has done at Illinois so far. Can a game have a negative score? Still, since it's a home game, I'm giving the Hoosiers the edge in this one, as both schools really look forward to basketball starting soon.

3. Baylor at Iowa State - The Bears continue their quest to get bowl eligible, as the Cyclones lick their wounds after the loss at Lincoln. Is Baylor for real, or do they just give the Aggies fits? And are the Cyclones really back, or does the Big 12 North just suck that much? My money's on the latter, but the Cyclones should still have the edge here.

4. Cincinnati at Pitt - Can Wanny manage his first IA win against the Bearcats, who have been almost equally awful this year? You know, I don't think so. Cincy at least has managed one win against the MAC's Eastern Michigan, though a 7-3 win over IAA Western Kentucky looks pretty awful. For once, Rutgers isn't the most likely team to be in the Big East basement (aside from Temple, well on its way to zero wins for the season). Another basement battle between first year coaches, Wanny's utter ineptitude will give way to Cincy's lack of talent, with the Bearcats getting their first Big East victory in this game.

5. Cal at UCLA - The battle to be the challenger to USC. Both teams are undefeated. Two teams enter the Rose Bowl, only one team leaves. UCLA has managed to get here undefeated, but its come-from-behind victory against Washington last weeks has to give Cal the odds in this game. Cal's offense finally seems to be gelling, and expect the Golden Bears to end this year's campaign for the Bruins as the two teams of bears battle it out in the Granddaddy of them All.

And, finally, the Penn State report, and wouldn't you know it, it would be a game of the week without my ties

Ohio State at Penn State

The battle of the defenses, and at least one of these teams has an offense this year. Guess what? It's not the Buckeyes. This game has been close, even in Penn State's decline, with a narrow loss in 2003, and only special teams and turnovers keeping the Buckeyes on top last year. The game's back in Happy Valley, Penn State just crushed the golden boys from Minneapolis, and this game will be another step in JoePa's return to the Big Ten championship circle, if not the Rose Bowl itself. Right? Well, to borrow from Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend. I like the Nittany Lions in this matchup, but the Minnesota Michael Robinson has to show up, and not the Northwestern Michael Robinson. Turnovers, again, will be the key. Both teams feature solid defenses, and Ohio State has been anything but impressive on the offensive side of the ball. Penn State, on the other hand, has shown in the turnover-less game against Minnesota what it can do if it doesn't give the ball up. The Ohio State defense will provide a lot more pressure than Minnesota did, despite the Penn State offensive line looking better than it has in years. If Michael Robinson can avoid turning the ball over, I think the freshmen playmakers at wide out and the steady attack that is Tony Hunt wins this one for JoePa, especially after a little visit to Austin by the offensive staff to see how the Longhorns did it. Without turnovers, expect a close 21-17 win by the Nittany Lions. With turnovers, expect a 28-7 win by the Buckeyes. Remember, Michael - the ball is your friend and you shouldn't hand it over to those nasty white jerseyed folk from Ohio. Really. Let's go, Lions!!!