The bowls, and the predictions

In chronological order, and keeping count of reality versus my predictions:

New Orleans Bowl - Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss (0/2)
This is the first time North Texas hasn't won the Sun Belt, and gone to the New Orleans Bowl. While both teams have a 6-5 record, Arkansas State did it in the Sun Belt, as compared to North Texas, who would dominate the Sun Belt to lose this game. No question - So. Miss takes this one.

GMAC Bowl - UTEP vs. Toledo (1/4)
Up until the late season collapse by UTEP and Mike Price, which kept them from making it to the CUSA championship game, I would've given the edge to UTEP. The Miners seem to have run out of steam, while Toledo's three losses came to Fresno State, a surprise loss to the Chipewas of Central Michigan, and Northern Ill., keeping them out of the MAC title game. The Rockets still have Bruce Gradkowski, so Toledo walks away with a win.

Las Vegas Bowl - BYU vs. Cal (2/6)
While BYU has shown some improvement under the reign of Bronco Mendenhall this year (can we give this guy Best Coach's Name of the Year?), Cal still has some weapons despite a disappointing showing in the Pac 10 this year. The Cowboys of Wyoming took out UCLA last year, but the odds should be with the Golden Bears this year.

Poinsettia Bowl - Colorado State vs. Navy (2/8)
Neither of my picks made it to this one, but this one looks like a win for the Rams. Navy has managed wins against such perennial powerhouses such as Rice and Tulane, while losing to non-bowl bound teams Maryland and Stanford, and former Big East basement dweller Rutgers. The Rams have played tougher competition, and won't fold. Congrats to the Middies for making their third bowl in a row, but their record will fall to 1-2 after this one.

Fort Worth Bowl - Kansas vs. Houston (2/10)
Another blank for me in the prediction department, but I think I can predict this one. Kansas is 6-0 in Lawrence this year. They have an overall record of 6-5. The Cougars get to take one for CUSA this time.

Hawaii Bowl - UCF vs. Nevada (2/12)
The Golden Knights of Central Florida get their first bowl bid ever, and in a good location. Nevada, meanwhile, gave itself a share of the WAC title by upsetting the Fresno State team that had pushed USC to its limits. Seeing as Fresno State laid an egg the next week to La Tech (way to use that win against Boise State, boys), the Wolfpack's accomplishment looks that much worse. At the same time, UCF lost to the Golden Hurricanes to put a little rain into their Cinderella season this year. George O'Leary has done an amazing job this year, but I think Ault's Wolfpack bring home the hardware in this one.

Motor City Bowl - Akron vs. Memphis (2/14)
Speaking of teams with first ever bowl appearances - the Zips, as a result of their win over Northern Illinois, get to visit Detroit to take on the Memphis Tigers, taking a Big 10 slot due to Ohio State's selection as a BCS at-large team. Memphis, however, has been here before and has one of the best backs that's not going to the Downtown Athletic Club this year, DeAngelo Williams. With over 1800 yards, and averaging 6.5 yards a carry, Williams, and the Tigers, are going to be too much for the Zips to handle.

Champs Sports Bowl - Clemson vs. Colorado (2/16)
The Tigers, avoiding a post-South Carolina brawl, get to go bowling against the cream of the crop of the Big 12 North. Fresh off of a 70-3 shellacking by Texas, the Buffs aren't likely to put up much of a fight in this one. While Gary Barnett needs to rise up and win to perhaps maintain his position after back to back embarassing losses to Nebraska and Texas, Tommy Bowden's boys will win, and keep him off the hot seat for yet another win.

Insight Bowl - Arizona State vs. Rutgers (3/18)
Finally, I manage to get my third pick correct. Rutgers hasn't been bowling since 1978 (longer than at least one of our contributors has been alive), while Arizona State finished poorly after getting a good start. This is almost a home game for the Sun Devils, and as much as the Scarlet Knights want a bowl win, I don't see it happening here. Arizona State has too much talent, and Rutgers hasn't played in December in 27 years. Expect a Sun Devil win here.

MPC Computers Bowl - Boise State vs. Boston College (4/20)
This game is played at Boise State's home field, on the Smurf Turf. Boise State hasn't lost a game at home since 2001. Boston College - enjoy the trip from snowy Chestnut Hill to scenic and . . . snowy Boise. The Broncos take this one on the blue field, and once again we get to wonder at why there's a bowl game outdoors in Boise.

Alamo Bowl - Michigan vs. Nebraska (5/22)
The Wolverines may be the best 4 loss team in the country, as ridiculous as that sounds. Meanwhile, either the Huskers have figured out how to incorporate the forward pass into their game scheme, or Colorado really really really sucks. I tend toward the latter, and expect Michigan to win this one. Certainly Lloyd Carr needs to win this one, after yet another disappointing season capped off by a loss to Ohio State. Lloyd - remember John Cooper? Don't you miss him?

Emerald Bowl - Utah vs. Ga Tech (5/24)
So much for my streak of getting it at least half right. What is up with Georgia Tech? It manages wins against Auburn (poss. the best team in the SEC this season, and the only one to beat Georgia with a healthy D.J. Shockley) and Miami, yet managed to lose to NC State and Virginia (another schizo team this year). This one should be no contest, with the Yellowjackets winning easily, but I am always prepared for that unwelcome surprise from Ga Tech.

Holiday Bowl - Oregon vs. Oklahome (5/26 - noticing a trend here?)
Poor Oregon. One loss all season long, and it came at the hands of the #1 team in the country. Meanwhile, a two-loss Ohio State (to #2 and #3 respectively) gets that Fiesta Bowl bid. I tell you, the Ducks get no respect, which will continue if they can't manage to beat the limping Sooners. While Oklahoma is playing much better football than at the beginning of the season, the Sooners are still a 4-loss team. By the transitive property, since Oklahoma lost to UCLA who lost to USC much worse than the Ducks did, Oregon should win this one. However, expect a performance reminiscent of Cal's last year, as the snubbed team gets drubbed by the Big 12's representative. That, and to hear Boomer Sooner a lot.

Sun Bowl - Northwestern vs. UCLA (6/28 - yay! Another one right!)
The Wildcats have been competitive in a very tough Big Ten this year, and eplosive offensively, but its defense has been questionable. UCLA has been explosive at times on the offensive side of the ball, but its defense has been questionable, especially against the run. Expect a 66-63 shootout in this one. Who wins? Well, which team lost to Arizona this year? Not them.

Independence Bowl - South Carolina vs. Missouri (7/30)
The Old Ball Coach goes bowling again, and Brad Smith gets to try to close out a somewhat disappointing college career with a win against a legendary coach. Well, unfortunately for the Tigers, I think the Gamecocks are better coached, and are going to be better prepared. Spurrier's boys almost upset Georgia - expect a close game, but the W goes to the Cocks.

Music City Bowl - Minnesota vs. Virginia (7/32)
The Gophers return to Nashville to go bowling again, against the schizoid Cavs. After trying to figure out Virginia all year, I just can't call this game. Surely, Minnesota, with Lawrence Maroney and the dominating offensive line, should be able to beat a team that lost to UNC. Right? My gut tells me the Gophers win this one, but Virginia has a way of coming out and beating good teams, and losing to crappy ones. Don't be too surprised if the Cavs rise up again.

Peach Bowl - Miami vs. LSU (7/34)
Two conference also-rans. Maybe that's a bit harsh - for LSU, anyway. Miami had a spot in the ACC championship game locked up until an unfortunate loss to Georgia Tech. Seeing as Va Tech managed to fall, somehow, to the recently abyssmal Seminoles, maybe it's just as well they didn't get the rematch. Meanwhile, Les Miles's true colors shined through in an embarrassing loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Miami's losses - FSU and Ga Tech. LSU's - Georgia and Tennessee!!! Larry Coker, you get another 10 win season - Les, the death watch in Baton Rouge starts Dec. 30.

Meineke Car Care Bowl - South Florida vs. NC State (7/36)
My record keeps getting worse and worse, but this game gets an official "who cares?" from the rest of America. A 6-5 USF from a depleted Big East against a 6-5 NC State - why is this game being broadcast anywhere besides North Carolina and Florida? While the Bulls performed fairly well in their first year in the Big East, and are bowling for the first time (that's 3 this year), NC State played in what might have been the most competitive conference this season. Expect the Wolfpack to win this one.

Houston Bowl - Iowa State vs. TCU (7/38)
If not for a loss to SMU, TCU would be undefeated this season, and possibly be holding a BCS berth. Instead, they get to travel to Houston and take on Iowa State. The Cyclones, who for two seasons in a row have controlled their destiny to go to the Big 12 championship game and come up short, are probably outmatched by the Horned Frogs. Heck, had TCU played in the Big 12 North this year, they likely would've gone to Houston to get pummelled by the Longhorns. Expect the Frogs to win, and wonder about what could've been on the trip back to Fort Worth.

Liberty Bowl - Tulsa vs. Fresno State (7/40)
Fresno State comes into this game on a two game losing streak, while Tulsa rose up and snatched the CUSA title and title game shot from two other newcomers, UTEP and UCF. Give Pat Hill credit where credit is due - the 27 days from now until the bowl game is going to be enough time for him to settle his team down, and get it back to the point where it almost upset both Oregon and USC. The Golden Hurricanes are going to get doused by a well-prepared Fresno State team come New Year's Eve.

Cotton Bowl - Texas Tech vs. Alabama (8/42)
Does Alabama have Tyrone Prothro back? It doesn't - well, then expect the Red Raiders to win this one. The strange spread offense created by Mike Leach can move the bowl and score some points, and, more to the point, the Raiders can actually play defense this year. While Alabama has played wonderful defense all season long, it's offense has been nothing short of non-existent since Prothro was hurt in the Florida game. While the Tide may keep the Raiders out of the end zone for most of the game, I don't think Tech will need more than one touchdown to win this game.

Outback Bowl - Iowa vs. Florida (8/44)
I just don't know about this game, other than the defense will be tight, and the score will be low. Iowa finished the season relatively strongly, as did Florida with its win against FSU. Both teams stuggled, though, throughout the season on offense. Call this a toss up, and expect either some last minute score or overtime to decide this one. But, I'll flip the coin, and go with Florida.

Gator Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Louisville (8/46)
One of the best offenses this year against one of the best defenses and a competent offense, as long as the game doesn't matter. Thankfully for the Hokies, this game doesn't matter, though it will have national attention, since it is one of the more prestigious second tier bowls. Va Tech looked great all year, except for its two losses to Miami and FSU, where it looked awful in the first, and pedestrian in the second. Meanwhile, Louisville was unstoppable in Papa John's Stadium, but managed to lose to South Florida and West Virginia on the road. So, the question is: does Va Tech's inability to show up to the big game this year trump Lousiville's road troubles? I say yes, as the Hokies, falling from grace and out of a BCS bowl bid, don't have much to play for, while Lousiville has a little bit to prove this first year in the Big East.

Captial One (No, Dammit, it's the Citrus) Bowl - Auburn vs. Wisconsin (9/48)
As I said earlier, Auburn may very well be the best team in the SEC, and only inexplicable kicker troubles in Baton Rouge kept them from beating the Tigers of LSU. Wisconsin, meanwhile, after managing to win in the Big House, and hand Barry Alvarez his only win over Michigan, fell at Northwestern, at Penn State, and to a much improved from the first half Iowa at home. The problem for the Badgers, though, is that Auburn can play defense, and Wisconsin hasn't shown that much ability to do that this season. While the Badgers have also put up gaudy scoring numbers and yardage, they looked miserable against the two best defenses they played (Penn State and Iowa). Don't forget that nice 14-5 win over North Carolina, either. The Tigers take out their frustration at not being in a BCS bowl against the Badgers, who don't manage to send off Barry with one last bowl win.

Next up, and in the next post, the BCS bowls. So far, I'm a just plain awful 9/48 in my picks. Can't even make .500 at this point, and the championship games' results and Ohio State sneaking up to #4 in the BCS blew out a lot of my guesses about the BCS. So, what will happen in the Orange (Coaches who Could be Retirees) Bowl, the Fiesta (No Champions Here) Bowl, the Sugar (All-Redneck) Bowl, and the Granddaddy of them all, the Rose (For all the Marbles) Bowl? Stay tuned.