The Cinderella Report

Well, we're 4 weeks into the season, and we've got a grand total of three, count em, three undefeated mid-major teams left. Let's break them down, and see how likely either one is to end up undefeated at the end of the season, and who's likely to gain a BCS bowl berth this year.

1. TCU - The Horned Frogs just have to take care of business in conference to go undefeated, and get a likely BCS bowl invite. After defeating Texas Tech (and Baylor, too, I guess) from the Big 12, the only remaining hurdle is the conference schedule. With a game at Utah at Oct. 5, and a visit from BYU tomorrow night, TCU should likely know its fate. Win both of those, and a BCS berth is almost guaranteed. Lose either and it's a much harder road ahead. Of course, this is the same TCU that after beating Oklahoma last year still managed to lost to SMU the next week. Be wary of a letdown this week against BYU, and the possibility of slipping up somewhere down the line in conference play. Oh yeah, they play Army, too, but let's just call that a win.

2. Boise State - Boise State has three challenges remaining, and only one of them is on the Smurf Turf at home. The Broncos play at Utah this week, face Fresno State on Nov. 1, and play at Nevada Nov. 25. While Boise State doesn't seem to be feeling the loss of Dan Hawkins, the Broncos MUST go undefeated to rise high enough to contend for a BCS bowl bid. As the MWC is on the verge of being the unofficial 7th BCS conference, and is seen that way by the pollsters, an undefeated, or possibly even a 1 loss TCU is likely to be more highly ranked than an undefeated Boise State. also, unlike TCU, Boise State is prone to dropping one or two games in-conference on the road to perfection, so even if it makes it past the speed bumps I mentioned, there's always the chance for the Broncos to blow it on the road.

3. Houston - The surprisingly undefeated Cougars are in the lead in C-USA right now, but don't count on them to make it to the end. Why, you might ask? Because they play Miami, at Miami, this Saturday. Now, we all know Miami isn't what it used to be, and a loss to the Cougs will certainly be Larry Coker's death knell, so the 'Canes are likely to be fired up for this one. In the event that 17 year starter Kevin Kolb (I know, it just feels that way) manages to outshoot Miami and stymie its defense, the Cougs will still face more competition in-conference than either Boise State or TCU. While they get both UTEP and UCF at home, they play at Southern Miss, which should be a stumbling block for them. On the other hand, if the Cougs do manage to beat both Miami and Southern Miss, and run the table (including the C-USA title game), expect them to contend with TCU for the Cinderella this year. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening, but if it does, well, then, go Cougs.

Because Some of Them Have Contracts They Want to Honor . . .

See, the problem with doing things at the last minute (or at the last year, for football scheduling) is all the pretty dance partners probably already have dates.

For instance, Penn State already has its non-conference schedule for 2007 set, with Notre Dame, Florida International, Buffalo, and Temple next year. While I'm sure an upgrade to an opponent like Auburn to replace one of the three bottom dwellers would be nice, I think our program probably just wants to honor contracts. Ohio State, likewise, has their schedule completed, with Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, and Kent State. Notre Dame also has all 12 games filled. Miami's schedule for 2007 hasn't been released, but it has been released that they will be playing Oklahoma in 2007.

Texas, meanwhile, doesn't seem to have the same problem, as it has an empty non-conference game slot to go with TCU, Central Florida, and Rice. Same with Michigan, which has Eastern Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oregon on tap.

So, let's not throw stones at those teams who already have filled out their schedules, and want to honor contracts. (Remember Bowling Green? I bet you do!). As for Texas and Michigan, while it is possible that the avoidance of playing Auburn may have something to do with not wanting to schedule a team that's pretty successful right now, it may also have something to do with what Auburn's schedule has available. Perhaps a hom-home series split between 2007 and 2010 just isn't that attractive to a lot of teams. In addition, Auburn is looking for a season opener, at home. Both Texas and Michigan already have potentially tough non-conference challenges, as does Miami and our teams with set schedules already.

Along those lines, I had a difficult time in finding Auburn's 2007 schedule. And by difficult, I mean I couldn't find it. So if Auburn is scrambling to fill its schedule, whether with big boys or not, I would comment that trying to line someone up in 2006 is much like asking someone to prom about 2 days before the event. While the addition of the 12th game may be at fault, there are some teams (like Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame) who haven't had that problem.

Whining about Bad Calls

With the furor over the horrible calls that ended the OU-Oregon game, and the controversy over the calls in the Auburn-LSU game, I'm reminded of nothing more than school-yard kids calling names and calling for do-overs in kick ball.

This is not to say that the calls were (or weren't) bad, or that bad calls aren't a part of the game. But bad calls should be complained about by fans, sports writes, and other people who really don't have any ability to affect the game. Complaining about bad calls is as much a part of the game as complaining about the BCS or the new timing rules. Even complaints by coaches and players have their place, at least within the first couple of days after the game. But this, this is something new.

The fits being thrown by the administration of both OU and LSU are unprofessional, and show that both schools are missing the point. OU President (and fans), look - the Pac 10 suspended them, recognized they were bad calls, and you unfortunately got shafted. Guess what? Deal with it. You can't open the door to review these post-game, or no final score will ever be final again. Consider yourself Gore-ed and the Pac 10 refs are your Katherine Harris. But for the sake of the game, you've got to let it go. LSU AD - same goes for you. Sorry everybody decided that the calls you thought were bad weren't bad, but guess what - that's the way the ball bounces sometimes. Sometimes the ball bounces against you.

Hey, here's an even better concept. You want to avoid losing a game due to a bad call? Actually play well enough that the bad call doesn't matter. For all the hullabaloo about the onside kick, no one seems to admit that the OU defense, after the call, couldn't stop Oregon from scoring. If the D holds up, then the call doesn't matter. Or that the OU D couldn't stop Oregon from scoring BEFORE the onside kick. Same deal with LSU - the complaints don't stem from the final drive where JaMarcus Russell inexplicably throws the ball to the one player NOT in the end zone, or his decision to run the ball with time running out, and not get out of bounds. No, the dispute is from earlier in the game.

OU, LSU, and everyone else - you don't want bad calls to determine the outcome of your game? Then win the games on your own, and don't blame the calls for your meltdowns after them.

GD stands for...

god dammit.

Greg Davis was up to his old tricks again. Ignoring the strengths of the Texas offense, Davis instead made the following dubious play calls:

- On Texas' opening drive against tOSU, Texas ran the ball with impunity, driving down to the tOSU 7 yard line. Rather than lining up and pounding the ball in, he called a wide-receiver screen on 1st down, which went nowhere. On 2nd down, another wide-receiver screen, which Pittman fumbled on the 1, and tOSU recovered and returned to mid-field.

- On 3rd and 1, on the buckeye side of the field, rather than lining up and running up the gut to get a 1st down, Texas runs the ball out of the shotgun, and loses four yards and momentum. The good news is, in a similar situation later in the game, Texas lined up in goal-line and converted the 1st down. Maybe even GD can learn from his mistakes.

I may be a wistful old fogey, but in goal-line and short yardage situations, put in a fullback or an extra tightend, rely on your stout O-line, and get your yardage. Running out of the shotgun seems to work fine between the 20s, but once inside the red zone, the defense tightens up, and the horizontal running and passing game is ineffective.

tOSU played a great game, and I do not contend Texas would have won if they converted on the above scenarios, but their chances of winning would greatly improve. Its up to the coaches to put the players in position to win, and GD failed again. I have never been on the "fire Greg Davis" bandwagon, and it is hard to criticize a coaching staff that just won 20 games in a row, but if Texas gets inside an opponents ten yard line, and proceeds to line up in shotgun, I'll die a little inside.

Oh, and the zone read only works if you have a QB that is a threat to run.

That said, I still think Texas is the best team in the Big 12. But will the nightmares of RRS pasts come back to haunt GD and Texas on Oct. 7? We'll see.

Perhaps I was wrong . . .

I have been known for my opposition and sadness toward IA teams, especially IA powerhouses, playing IAA teams. Not just for the lack of gamemanship in such games, but that they represent one of the plagues of modern college football: bowing down to the almighty dollar. Well, this first weekend of college football 2006 has shown me something: perhaps I have been a little hasty in my opinions considering this.

For what must be a the first time since the rigid distinction between IA and IAA was made, 3, count them, 3 IA teams lost to their IAA opponents. The Richmond Spiders posted a 13-0 win over Duke, continuing the Blue Devils misery on the gridiron. Portland State overcame the Lobos of New Mexico 17-6, a result somewhat more surprising than a IAA teams posting a win over the woeful Blue Devils. But the biggest shocker of all - Colorado - Big 12 North champ last year, BCS conference member, losing to the Bobcats of Montana State 19-10. What a good start to the Dan Hawkins era!

Even more surprising, and disappointing for fans of certain teams, were the troubles that some teams had with the lower division teams they played. Maryland struggled with William and Mary, finally winning 27-14. NC State had similar problems against perennial IAA power, Appalachian State. (By the way, ACC, that's not a good way to establish yourself as a power conference). Kansas State managed a win against Illinois State, only because after a late TD, the Rebirds went for the 2 point conversion for the win, and didn't kick the point after for the tie to force overtime. Arizona State had all it could handle against Northern Arizona, until pulling away in the 4th quarter. The same could be said for South Florida in its opener against McNeese State. Or Purdue, against Indiana State.

Meanwhile, of course, some teams managed to completely dismantle their IA opponents, regardless of conference (Arkansas - at least you didn't give up 70 this time. That 36 point margin of victory, so much more acceptable). So, perhaps a rethinking of my position the IAA game is necessary. Clearly, for some teams, the better IAA teams are just as comparable as any IA team - Sun Belt, Duke, the bottom half of the Mac, I'm talking to you. Also clear, though, following last year's huge upset of Stanford by UC Davis (a newly risen IAA team) and the Colorado debacle this year, is that big time programs, in BCS conferences, can lose to IAA teams. That speaks of a far more even playing field than I could have imagined. I will state, however, that a bye week later in the season would've done these teams more good than these losses seem to have.

Other thoughts on the weekend so far -
1. The worst game in college football has in all likelihood been played already. The worst team in IA, Temple, was beaten by Buffalo, one of the Bottom 10, 9-3. In OT. Which resulted in Bulls fans rushing the field. A win against Temple, you rush the field? What a comment on how your team has been doing lately.

2. Coaching - there has been some really bad, bad, bad coaching decisions this opening weekend. While there's some adjustment to the new timing rules, and the first week bugs that need to get ironed out, there have just been some flat-out awful calls. Central Michigan, driving to tie up the game, calls a trick play that sends a QB and 4 receivers out to face 11 men, while the other 6 are lined up halfway across the field, resulting in a pick. Nevada, with little time left and down by 9 points to Fresno State, goes for it on fourth down with 20 seconds left, instead of taking the FG, and trying for the requisite onside kick for the win. GT burns time-outs early and punts late in the game, instead of going for it on the 45 yard line, not recognizing that ND will be able to run out the clock. Jeff Tedford once again making the wrong call between Longshore and Ayoob pre-season, which is shown in the openner against Tennessee. I know the new rule that the clock will start on a change of possession is a change, but come on, coaches - you do this for a living - you should adjust better than that, and it doesn't explain some of the bonehead calls.

3. The first game - I know you can't put much stock in the first game, but somethings I think I've learned:

a. unless GT's D was just that good, I'm now less worried about the Nittany Lions visit to South Bend next week. I think if Penn State can hold ND to 14 points, too, we win that game.

b. The Big 12 seems even more divided into haves and have nots this year. The haves, so far: Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech. The have nots: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma. Look for some lopsided scores in conference play, and Oklahoma boosters - Texas fans want you to keep cheating - it works so well for us.

c. Conference records vs. OOC opponents to date (I'll be keeping a running tally):
ACC 6-4 (with a loss and two very close wins coming to IAA teams, 4 IAA overall)
Big 12 10-1 (sole loss to IAA, 6 IAA opponents overall - taking over from the SEC this year)
Big East 6-1 (3 IAA opponents)
Big Ten 11-0 (4 IAA opponents - keeping with the Joneses, are we, Big 10?)
C-USA 3-5 (Only 2AA opponents - good for you, C-USA!)
Independents 2-2 (No IAA yet, but with Army and Temple, that chance to win a game guarantees some IAA action in the future)
MAC 2-8 (1 IAA, and kudos to CMU and Toledo for almost making the upsets)
MWC 4-3 (3 IAA, and a loss to one of them - way to go, New Mexico!)
Pac 10 6-2 (2 IAA, and one loss - that bye week looks better and better, doesn't it?)
SEC 6-2 (and wait for it - only a single IAA game - on top of that, let's look at opening week conference opponents - 3 Pac 10, 1 Big 10, 1 C-USA, 1 WAC, 1 Sun Belt - good going, SEC, for showing that you CAN win when you play quality opponents. Well, except for Vandy and Arkansas, anyway)
Sun Belt 3-3 (2 IAA so far, and 2 wins against IAA. Well, 3, if you count Army)
WAC 2-6 (With both victories coming against the 2 IAA opponents - trying to compete with the Sun Belt, are we?)

So there you have it - the only undefeated in non-conference play to date is the Big 10, with their slate of MAC teams, WAC teams, IAA teams, and Vandy. Next best is the Big 12, with a similar slate, plus some Sun Belt action. The SEC is our #3, and, with the best OOC SOS to date, needs to be given the trophy for the week, for actually playing teams that just might be able to beat you. Well done, SEC, and we'll see what happens through the rest of the weekend.