The Cinderella Report

Well, we're 4 weeks into the season, and we've got a grand total of three, count em, three undefeated mid-major teams left. Let's break them down, and see how likely either one is to end up undefeated at the end of the season, and who's likely to gain a BCS bowl berth this year.

1. TCU - The Horned Frogs just have to take care of business in conference to go undefeated, and get a likely BCS bowl invite. After defeating Texas Tech (and Baylor, too, I guess) from the Big 12, the only remaining hurdle is the conference schedule. With a game at Utah at Oct. 5, and a visit from BYU tomorrow night, TCU should likely know its fate. Win both of those, and a BCS berth is almost guaranteed. Lose either and it's a much harder road ahead. Of course, this is the same TCU that after beating Oklahoma last year still managed to lost to SMU the next week. Be wary of a letdown this week against BYU, and the possibility of slipping up somewhere down the line in conference play. Oh yeah, they play Army, too, but let's just call that a win.

2. Boise State - Boise State has three challenges remaining, and only one of them is on the Smurf Turf at home. The Broncos play at Utah this week, face Fresno State on Nov. 1, and play at Nevada Nov. 25. While Boise State doesn't seem to be feeling the loss of Dan Hawkins, the Broncos MUST go undefeated to rise high enough to contend for a BCS bowl bid. As the MWC is on the verge of being the unofficial 7th BCS conference, and is seen that way by the pollsters, an undefeated, or possibly even a 1 loss TCU is likely to be more highly ranked than an undefeated Boise State. also, unlike TCU, Boise State is prone to dropping one or two games in-conference on the road to perfection, so even if it makes it past the speed bumps I mentioned, there's always the chance for the Broncos to blow it on the road.

3. Houston - The surprisingly undefeated Cougars are in the lead in C-USA right now, but don't count on them to make it to the end. Why, you might ask? Because they play Miami, at Miami, this Saturday. Now, we all know Miami isn't what it used to be, and a loss to the Cougs will certainly be Larry Coker's death knell, so the 'Canes are likely to be fired up for this one. In the event that 17 year starter Kevin Kolb (I know, it just feels that way) manages to outshoot Miami and stymie its defense, the Cougs will still face more competition in-conference than either Boise State or TCU. While they get both UTEP and UCF at home, they play at Southern Miss, which should be a stumbling block for them. On the other hand, if the Cougs do manage to beat both Miami and Southern Miss, and run the table (including the C-USA title game), expect them to contend with TCU for the Cinderella this year. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening, but if it does, well, then, go Cougs.