Breaking down Texas
Well, as promised, here is my evaluation of the Texas Longhorns and the upcoming season.
Just like last year, I'll start with the strength of the team, the defense. The defensive line looks to be improved this year. Tim Crowder and Brian Robison return at the DE position for the third year in a row. This position was thin last season after the loss of Michael Williams to academics. This year Brian Orakpo and Chris Brown will fit in the rotation, while true freshman Lamar Houston may get some playing time.
The interior will feature Frank Okam, who NFL scouts are already drooling over. Derek Lokey will finally get the chance to start. Despite the loss of Rod Wright and Larry Dibbles, the DL should also improve this year. Okam had replaced Dibbles as starter last year, and despite his talent, Wright had a habit of taking plays off during the game. Roy Miller will press Lokey for playing time, and Tulley Janzen fills out the rotation. Freshman Ben Alexander may also get some PT.
The linebacking core was the weakness in the defense last year, but figures to be better this year. Rashad Bobino will move to MLB, which is his natural position. Robert Killebrew starts at SLB, but will need to cut down on the late hits. Drew Kelson is a speed guy, as he is a converted safety. Kelson will play the weak-side. Rod Muckelroy can spell Bobino in the middle. Sergio Kindle is being hailed as the next great Texas linebacker, and will be hard to keep off the field.
The secondary is good, but relatively thin. Michael Griffin gives Texas a chance to have back-to-back Thorpe award winners. Griffin made that great interception in the end zone during the Rose Bowl. Michael will be joined at the other safety spot by his twin brother, Marcus. Tarrell Brown and Aaron Ross spilt time at corner last year, but will need to start at both positions and will have to contribute. After that, the secondary gets iffy. Eric Jackson and Ryan Palmer can fill in when needed. But the secondary cannot afford an injury to any of the starters.
On offense, the real question mark is, of course, QB. Has VY returned for another season, Texas would be a hands down preseason #1. And that perhaps is the good news. That means a lot of pieces are in place on the offense, and the young QBs will just need to be serviceable, rather than god-like. But that means this team cannot afford to get down by 28 points to Oklahoma St., or any team for that matter. Gone are the days VY can bail the team out on 4th and 18. Gone are the days when the pocket collapses and VY wiggles his way out for a 20 yards gain. After attending the scrimmage last week, it seems clear Colt McCoy is the better QB right now, and he should be the starter. Jevan Sneed is the better athlete, but just doesn't look as comfortable running the offense. Another freshman, Sherrod Harris is third-string QB. The good news is, McCoy and Sneed have an arm and can make certain passes.
The better news is, Texas should dominate the line in every game they play this year. The O-line is going to be great again this year. Justin Blalock returns and may be the best O-lineman in the country. Kasey Studdard and Center Lyle Sendlein also return. Tony Hills, Jr. is a converted tight end that played a lot of minutes last year, and will be a starter this year. Adam Ulatoski and Cedric Dockery will step up into the other O-line positions. Texas also has some talented recruits coming in. Buck Burnette and J'marcus Webb are the best of the incoming fish, but hopefully will not need to be called upon to contribute.
Texas also has a deep stable of running backs, which is good considering they may be injury prone. Whereas Adrian Peterson will be called upon to run the ball 30 to 35 times a game, Selvin Young, Jamaal Charles, Henry Melton will split carries. Charles has been receiving some early Heisman buzz, but he is still a year away. Freshman Vondrell McGee is a speedster. Fullback, when used, will be spilt between Marcus Meyers and Chris Ogbonnaya. Although Ogbonnaya will probably be in a running back during garbage time. The running backs will need to take up the slack for the 1,000 yards VY gained on the ground last year.
Even better news is, Texas is solid at WR. Limas Sweed, Billy Pittman, and Quan Cosby can all stretch the field. The reserves are good too. Jordan Shipley was the most prolific WR in Texas high school history, but has been saddled with injuries the last two seasons. Nate Jones is a former starter, and Myron Hardy has been performing well in practice. Provided the QBs can get the ball to them, the receiving core should be take care of the rest. I hope to see a lot of defenses stack the box, b/c I like our odds with Sweed and Pittman in one-on-one coverage.
David Thomas will be impossible to replace, but Neale Tweedie brings the experience of a senior to the tight end position. Peter Ullman played some minutes last year. And Britt Mitchell and Greg Smith were highly recruited last year. Most folks are excited about Jermichael Finley. He needs to improve his blocking, but is a great receiver. Finley will be able to beat most LBs down the field. Tweedie and Finley will both play significant minutes and will be important safety valves for the young QBs.
On special teams, Aaron Ross will return punts again this year after a fine season of return duty last year. Tarrell Brown and Quan Cosby will be the kick returners. Greg Johnson will punt and probably handle kick-offs. The Vandy transfer has been inconsistent at times and will need to improve. Trevor Gerland will compete for place kicker, but a lot of folks are excited about Hunter Lawrence. Mack Brown thought enough of him to offer a scholarship. Lawrence also runs track, and could figure into some fake kicks. Kicking will be very important this year, as games against tOSU and Oklahoma may come down to a FG.
Texas schedule isn't as easy as last year. Admittedly, the Big 12 is not a conference full of monsters. However, I feel the North division has improved. Texas benefits from playing the Buckeyes at home, and early in the season. Oklahoma is a neutral site game. That leaves trips to Lubbock and Lincoln in consecutive weeks as Texas' road challenges.
The Ohio St. game will be difficult. The Texas D will have to shut down Troy Smith. The defense performed well last year in Columbus. But Texas probably benefited from Tressel's juggling of the QB in last year's game. Texas will lose a shoot-out to Ohio St. Texas will need to establish the ground game and keep the Buckeye offense off the field.
The Oklahoma game is a toss-up. Okies would have you believe Bomar's dismissal was a good thing. Don't buy it. The loss of Quinn may have been more significant. Many view Oklahoma's O-line as the team's weakness. Peterson will carry the load, and may take a lot of punishment. Peterson only rushed three times for ten yards in last year's shootout (that's right, it is the Red River Shootout, you PC pussies - sorry). We'll know a lot about both of these teams by the time Oct. 7 rolls around. OU makes a trip to Autzen early in the season for a rematch of the Holiday Bowl. They also have UAB and Washington at home. Texas and OU may meet for the first time in a while with both teams having a blemish on their record.
Trips to Lubbock have been an adventure of late for Texas. The drunken lawyer is a master of offense, and wacky o-line arrangements. Tech replaces their QB - big deal. The real chore will be replacing Taurean Henderson at RB. Tech will be good, but not great. Provided the QB doesn't fall flat on his face, Texas should win this one. Nebraska may be improved, but Texas should out-talent the Cornhuskers in a potential Big 12 championship game match-up.
Best case scenario, obviously 12-0, and playing in the Fiesta. But can Texas do it? Yes, but will need mistake-free play from the QB position, and the defense will need to hold every opponent to less than 21. Worst case, probably 8-4. But then again, I thought worse case last year was 8-3. So we'll see. The OSU game will go a long way to setting the tone for this season. The players seem motivated, they are tired of hearing last year was all Vince. The other 23 players on the field want to prove they have what it takes to compete for that crystal football.
posted by Brad @ 5:02 PM
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