BCS busters - this year's Utah (maybe)

Despite having rules allowing for a team from a non-BCS conference to get an invitation to a BCS game, last year's invitation to Utah was the first time it had happened since the beginning of the BCS. There are a number of factors that went into Utah's crawling up the BCS ranks to achieve what it did last year:

1. Schedule - Utah not only finished the season with a perfect record, but managed it against a non-conference schedule that included North Carolina, Texas A&M, and Arizona. Now, while Arizona is still rebuilding under Mike Stoops, the other two wins aided Utah's quest. North Carolina, though at times abysmal, did manage an upset of Miami. A&M, also still rebuilding under Francione, was the most impressive of the wins, as the Aggies were never in the game. To top it off, it was a banner year for the MWC, with Wyoming and New Mexico also making into bowls, and BYU managing to knock off Notre Dame.

2. Exposure - Urban Meyer was the hottest thing since sliced bread last year, which led to a lot more attention to a program that otherwise would've been ignored by the sportswriters. This attention leads to votes in the polls, and a high draft position for Alex Smith, who under any other situation would've been a low first round draft pick at best. Heck, Notre Dame broke with tradition, fired Willingham before the end of his contact, all in an apparent effort to get Meyer. In addition, the above-mentioned schedule helped provide more national exposure to its games.

So, with that in mind, what teams this year have a shot at busting into the BCS?

1. Boise State - This is the big one. Not only do they have a difficult non-conference schedule (at Georgia, at Oregon State, and Bowling Green), but they have to go head to head against fellow WAC power Fresno State. While the WAC has been diluted by the raiding of the Sun Belt, the non-con schedule (aside from IAA Portland State) should make up for it. Also, by finishing the regular season undefeated last year, and having a close loss against Louisville in the Liberty Bowl, the buzz is up on Boise State. In fact, the only reason I have them at No. 1 instead of the next pick is the higher probability of being able to go undefeated.

2. Fresno State - The second giant in the weakened WAC, Fresno State has an even tougher non-conference schedule, which really comes down to: USC. That's right, Pat Hill's scrappy bunch is making the trip to L.A. to take on the Trojans on their home turf. Win the WAC, and beat USC, pull out wins against the remaining non-cons (Oregon, Weber State, and Toledo) and the Bulldogs should be getting that big game payout come January. So why do I have them ranked lower than Boise State? Cause beating USC at home this year is going to be a lot harder than outgunning Georgia between the hedges, also no mean feat.

So who else is out there, ready to break into the big time? Well, probably not much of anyone. There are possibilites - UTEP has the buzz after last year, and a tougher schedule in the expanded CUSA. Wyoming could duplicate Utah's feat in the MWC, with an opener at Florida and Urban Meyer. Bowling Green or Miami(OH) could both be there if they run the table, though Miami, with Ohio State as its Big 10 non-con, would have a better shot than Bowling Green, with Wisconsin and Boise State.

The real question is how likely is any of this to happen? Good question. I think Boise State has a good shot, seeing as the Broncos return 8 starters on both sides of the ball. They beat Oregon State on the blue turf last year, and had a narrow loss the year before in Corvallis. Beat the Dawgs, the Beavers, and the other 'Dogs, and we can see Boise State playing on January 1. Everyone else has even longer odds to go undefeated, the first requirement to be a BCS buster. So, if the Broncos are in the Fiesta Bowl this year, don't say I didn't warn you?