Mid-Majors in the BCS? Who is the most likely to go?

Starting this year, the BCS has changed its rules once again, adding a fifth BCS bowl as an unnamed title game, which will rotate through the four big boys of the BCS every year (Fiesta, Orange, Rose, and Sugar), so once every years, one bowl will host two games. This year, the lucky bowl is the Fiesta, so the Phoenix area gets to be home not to two (Insight and Fiesta), but three bowls this year.

More importantly, the two additional at-large bids come with some new rules, favoring the inclusion of mid-majors. These rules allow for a non-BCS conference team with a rating of 16th or higher in the BCS poll to gain an at-large bid if it is ranked higher than any of the BCS conference champions. Under these rules, last year, TCU, winner of the Mountain West, would have received a BCS bid, as it was ranked higher than 16th and higher ranked than Florida State, the lowest ranked BCS conference champion. I'm sure the powers that be at the BCS hope this change to give the have-nots some table scraps will help them maintain their stranglehold on the national championship, and keep Congress and the mid-majors from talking about unfair competition. What it certainly does is keep the prospects of any form of a playoff very dim indeed.

However, the changes are a bright spot for the following mid-major teams, who could, just possibly, slip into a BCS bowl and big bucks this season. One thing to keep in mind - to make it, a non-BCS team will almost certainly have to win its conference, and probably can't survive more than one loss to a BCS conference opponent. Any loss in conference or to a non-BCS conference opponent likely kills any chance to slip into the BCS. The possible Cinderellas for this year, in order of likelihood, are as follows:

1.) TCU - If the Horned Frogs should've gone last year, they certainly should this year. While their loss last year to SMU still leaves people scratching their heads, and the win over Oklahoma was over a very different team than the Oklahoma at the end of the season, TCU made a bang in its first season in the Mountain West. Expect the trend to continue, although it may face some in-conference opposition from Utah. It's non-conference schedule so far includes at Baylor, at Army, and a visit from Texas Tech. If the Horned Frogs can beat the Red Raiders, or even keep it close, and win out, expect them to have a BCS bid at the end of the season.

2.) Utah - Utah finds itself in a similar situation to TCU, as its non-conference schedule includes at UCLA, Northern Arizona, at Utah State, and Boise State. Of these, only UCLA and Boise State provide any challenge, and Boise State have to come to Salt Lake City. With a win over UCLA, or a close loss, and winning every other game, Utah will bump out TCU and take its BCS hopes away.

3.) Boise State (notice a trend here?) - Boise State is poised to win the WAC again, if it can manage to win out. Boise State lost its chance at perfection by losing to Fresno State last year, but at least this year, its non-conference schedule isn't as brutal. It gets Oregon State at home, replaces Georgia with at Utah, and has at Wyoming and I-AA Sacramento State to fill out its non-conference schedule. In this case, Boise State has to win out altogether to make it to the BCS, as the WAC schedule is not going to be quite as demanding as the MWC slate Utah and TCU face. A win in Salt Lake City, and a repeat of 2004's win over Oregon State on the Smurf Turf, ought to send the Broncos to the BCS, assuming they manage to overcome both Fresno State and a quickly improving Nevada in-conference.

4.) UTEP - Mike Price has shown his ability to coach (and stay away from one-night stands with strippers) in El Paso, and the Miners have a real chance to win the C-USA crown and go undefeated. With a non-conference slate that includes getting Texas Tech at home, and playing New Mexico, New Mexico State, and San Diego State, UTEP has a real shot at making it into conference play undefeated. Once in conference, the biggest hurdle is a game at Marshall, and the C-USA conference championship game, likely against UCF from the East. Like Boise State, UTEP will have to win out, due to the pollsters having far more respect for the Mountain West competition than the C-USA competition. It'll help if Texas Tech, in losing to the Miners, also manages to beat the Horned Frogs. Otherwise, even an undefeated season may not be enough to lift the Miners to one of the big bowls.

Outside of these four, all the other mid-major teams are a real longshot to make it to the BCS. TCU, Utah, Boise State, and UTEP stand out by having winnable contests with BCS conference opponents, and a chance to win every game in-conference. Marshall and UCF face much bigger non-conference opponents (West Virginia and Florida, respectively), and even in the unlikely event a MAC or Sun Belt team manages to win out, the quality of conference competition and the likely awful season for whatever BCS conference opponent can somehow lose to a member of one of these two conferences puts it out of reach. So, if one of our 4 Cinderellas can win out, or in the case of TCU or Utah, manage a very close loss to their BCS conference opponents, we'll see a mid-major in a BCS bowl again this year.

Way to go, BCS - you made it possible for one of four additional teams to make it. Way to open it up to the little guys.

Now Just Four Little Indians

Prior to June 1, 2006, there were five remaining universities that had Native American mascots that played college football at the Division 1A level. Those five instituions were Arkansas State (Indians), Central Michigan (Chippewas), Florida State (Seminoles), Louisiana-Monroe (Indians), and Utah (Utes). Of those, CMU, FSU, and Utah had been granted permission to continue using their nicknames, primarily because a. the nicknames were actual tribes and b. the schools gained permission from at least one remaining branch of those tribes to keep using the names.

However, as of June 1, 2006, Louisiana-Monroe (or ULaMo, as I like to call it) will now use "Warhawks" as its nickname for its athletic teams. Now, on one level, I applaud this. One of the most annoying things to me in a sports league/conference is for multiple teams to have the same nickname (such as Auburn/LSU Tigers, MSU/Georgia Bulldogs, the two Roughriders teams formerly in the CFL (Ottawa has since folded)). In addition, Warhawks apparently has a connection with the area, as the P-40 Warhawk was flown by General Claire Chennault, a graduate of what was once Northeastern Louisiana.

But, on the other hand, I have come to despise the trend in political correctness in sports. While it may or may not be fair to Native Americans to be utilized as a sports mascot, the fact remains that no one picks a mascot to ridicule it (the UC-Santa Cruz Banana Slug an exception to this rule). Teams want a mascot that exudes stength and victory and honor and glory. Like Spartan. Or Trojan. Or Mountaineer. Or Ragin' Cajun. I bring the last two up, only because they are the two non-Native American mascots that actually could apply to modern demographic groups in the United States. I understand that Redskin or Redman or Savage can be seen as offensive, just as changing Mountaineer to Redneck or Inbreeder would be. But the NCAA's heavy handed policy of forcing schools to change their long-standing nicknames to appease a small but vocal group of people who find it insulting or demeaning disturbs me. What's next? Greek-Americans advocating a ban on the use of Spartan or Trojan? PETA complaining about animal mascots or nicknames? Crayola copyrighting Crimson, Cardinal, and the like? Where does it stop?

Kudos to ULaMo for finding an alternative that not only ties into school history, but also sounds pretty intimidating too. I just hate the fact that the NCAA forced them into it, by pandering to the opinions of people who really just ought to be told, "Tough. Guess you'll have to be insulted. Don't come to any of games, then."

uh oh

the problem with using a timely handle is you have to keep it updated. to that end, Vince4Heisman has left early for the draft, you may now call me JamaalRunGood, or sir.

Comparing the Pre-Season Polls

Way back in January, before the Ocho went on an unplanned temporary hiatus, I put up my pre-pre-season top 8. Now, most of the other polls have come out, the spring games have happened, and we can see how my top 8 stacks up against everyone else's.

So, here are the JoePa Uber Alles Top 8 Pre-Pre-Season picks.
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. West Virginia
4. Texas
5. USC
6. Oklahoma
7. Notre Dame
8. Florida

Now, in comparison, here are some other top eights that have appeared since then, with links attached:

Stewart Mandel of SI.com

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. ND
4. WVU
5. LSU
6. Oklahoma
7. USC
8. Cal (Incidentally, Mandel had Florida as his number 11, while I don't mention Cal at all)

Dennis Dodd of CBS Sportsline.com

1. Ohio State
2. WVU
3. Auburn (mentioned in my 8 next teams, in no particular order)
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas
7. Notre Dame
8. USC (Florida comes in as his number 9)

Ivan Maisel at ESPN.com

1. Ohio State
2. Oklahoma
3. WVU
4. Texas
5. Florida State (mentioned in my next 8 list)
6. USC
7. Cal (again, I didn't mention the Golden Bears)
8. Notre Dame (Florida and LSU come in at 12 and not mentioned. UTEP is his 23, but no LSU? Wow.)

Okay, so what do we gather from all this? Every poll has Ohio State at number one. 6 of the 8 teams I picked as my top eight are in every poll listed here. So, this means one of three things:
1. My picks are about as good as those of sportswriters and professionals, and are a result of having spent years watching and commenting on college football as an amateur
2. Sportswriters' picks are about as bad as mine, despite their supposed better experience as professionals.
3. All of us jump on certain teams' bandwagons, and the preseason polls reflect those bandwagons more than giving any sort of reliable indicator of expected finish in the upcoming college football season.

Figure it out yourselves, and remember, college football starts on September 2. Only 88 more days to go.

Why I Was Wrong in Saying that Joe Pa is the Winningest Coach

Some may remember a few months ago that I wrote an impassioned argument as to why Joe Pa should retain the crown as winningest Division IA coach. This argument had everything to do with 21 wins Bobby Bowden had at Howard College (now Samford) and the injustice of counting those toward his overall win total. Well, while I may still find it unjust, I cannot say any longer that it was against the rules.

Upon trolling the Internet and researching this issue further, I found that the NCAA does indeed have a rule to cover this (and my questions about either Eddie Robinson or John Gagliardi coaching a Division IA game to get the record). The NCAA rules allow all prior wins to be counted if the coach coaches ten years at the Division IA level. Therefore, if ER or JG ever had coached/will coach a DIA program for 10 years, all of their prior wins would be counted toward their overall DIA win total.

While I may debate the fairness of this rule, and its future applicability now that there are clear divisions in college football (which there were not when Bobby Bowden was at Howard), the fact remains that the rules do indeed explaign why Bobby gets credit for those 21 wins.

All that's left to me is to say I was wrong, and that I hope Penn State keeps moving up and FSU keeps moving down. A couple more 1 loss seasons for my boys balanced by a couple more 5 loss seasons for the Seminoles will catapult JoePa back into first place again.