The Ocho

lessons from week five...

2007-10-01T23:39:00.000-05:00

1. LSU's main threat in the SEC West will be... Auburn. As much as I would like to have it otherwise, the apparent demise of Auburn was a bit premature. The Mississippi State loss can be attributed to shock from the South Florida home loss, but that isn't looking so bad anymore. Neither is the home victory over a suddenly dangerous Kansas State team which just hit Texas in the mouth. As far as other teams providing LSU a challenge, Florida has not proved they are a threat when they go on the road and Alabama is just too young to tame the Tigers. Other than Auburn, the road trip to Kentucky might be interesting.

2. South Florida is the best team in the state of Florida. After listening to a Saban press conference earlier this evening, it became evident why a team like South Florida has suddenly risen to prominence. Other than the typical excuse of less scholarships, Saban added the insight that South Florida is also allowed to recruit Prop 48 players whereas teams like Alabama, Florida State, and Miami are not provided this same luxury. Saban's own assessment of the nasty Bulls defense was that it had six players who would start for FSU (FSU's defense is playing at a near championship level this season). This does help explain the wacky Big East, where perennial doormats like Rutgers and Cincinatti are suddenly top 20 schools.

3. The best remaining under the radar squads are: Illinois, Kansas, and Cincinatti. As stated in Week One of our lessons, the Big Twelve North sports five teams who are certainly bowl worthy (Kansas State, Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska in that order). Kansas State joins South Florida, Arizona State, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Boston College as teams that are now known commodities. Illinois, despite its win over Penn State (predicted along with the South Florida to win outright last week), remains unheralded as does Cincinatti, a team that only humiliated an Oregon State team that won 10 games last season by the score of 34-3. Kansas has a tough game this week against Kansas State. I think Kansas State wins it, but it will be VERY close.

4. Too much shall be made of the Oklahoma loss to Colorado. That was an upset in its purest form. If they played 40 times, Colorado might win twice. I rank it as the major upset from last week. The other ones that really shocked me were 1) Rutgers 34-24 loss to Maryland (I was quite sold on this Rutgers team) and 2) Florida's home loss to Auburn 20-17 (Meyer had never lost at home, and the Tigers appeared to be reeling).

5. Ohio State is a legitimate contender for the national title. In fact, I think they will play either LSU or USC for the title. I am thinking USC is going to lose at least one game in the Pac-10 as it is asking too much to go undefeated through a schedule containing landmine games with Arizona State, Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and Oregon State. Ohio State, meanwhile, just has Wisconsion and a highly overrated Michigan squad. Ohio State's most difficult game in the Big 10 would be against Illinois.

6. Here's my view of the top 15 teams in the country right now:
1) LSU
2) Ohio State
3) USC
4) California
5) Oklahoma
6) South Florida
7) Oregon
8) Arizona State
9) Florida
10) Kansas State
11) Kentucky
12) Boston College
13) Missouri
14) Wisconsin
15) Kansas

Texas v. UCF

2007-09-20T18:21:00.000-05:00

I think I will abandon my prior format and just mention a few things I saw from the game:

- The passing game still seems stunted. Will the return of Billy Pittman also mean the return of a vertical passing game?

- I have never seen so many personal foul calls. Our defensive guys can't seem to help themselves. When they see a player going out-of-bounds, the Horns gotta hit him. It's ridiculous.

- I'll warrant the weather was bad and the balls were slippery, but Jamaal, hang on the the freaking football.

The sloppiness on both sides of the ball have held this team back. They still have three weeks to work it out before OU (who, by the way, is clicking on all cylinders). This week's game against Rice will provide an opportunity to work out the kinks. The Longhorns really need to win this game 66-3.

Academics and Football: Did Jim Delaney Have a Point?

2007-09-20T16:34:00.000-05:00

In my last post, an interesting tidbit about the Big Ten came up: every member of the Big Ten is also a member of the Association of American Universities . Now, whether membership in this organization means that there are higher academic standards is debatable. The membership is by invitation only, and a stated focus on research doesn't necessarily mean higher academic standards. On the other hand, pretty much every school that is typically mentioned of having high academic standards in US News or any other source is on this list. Except for, you know, Notre Dame.

At any rate, without passing any judgment on what it means for football, here's the breakdown of how many schools from each conference are members of the AAU.

ACC: 4 of 12 - Maryland, Duke, UNC, and Virginia
Big 12: 7 of 12 - Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Texas, and Texas A&M
Big East: 3 of 7 - Pitt, Rutgers, and Syracuse
Big Ten: 11 of 11
C-USA: 2 of 12 - Rice and Tulane
MAC: 1 of 13 - Buffalo
MWC: 0 of 9
Pac 10: 7 of 10 - Arizona, Cal, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon
SEC: 2 of 12- Florida and Vanderbilt
Sun Belt: 0 of 9 (including Western Kentucky)
WAC: 0 of 9

Now obviously, being a member of this doesn't preclude football greatness: our last 3 MNC winners are on this list (Florida, Texas, and USC). Also obviously, not being on the list doesn't mean football strength - every BCS conference has at least 2 members and the MWC, Sun Belt, and WAC all have none.

What I do find interesting, though, is if you apply this list to relative conference strength, especially on a yearly basis. For instance, the SEC is deemed the toughest conference, certainly by its fans, year in and year out, and it has the fewest members of any BCS conference. The Big East has risen to prominence of late, and has only three. On the other hand, the Pac 10 also seems to be gaining strength, and it has the second highest percentage of membership. The Big 12 also has more than half of its membership in the AAU.

So what does this mean? Probably nothing. On the other hand, though it may not apply to Florida, Delaney was right on the money when he said the Big Ten schools have different academic priorities than the SEC schools. That difference could merely be the focus and funding given to research, and not necessarily mean higher academic standards and less cutting of corners for football players. Or it might mean he has a point. That's up to you to decide.

More College Football What-Ifs - Big Ten Edition

2007-09-20T15:01:00.000-05:00

The innevitable annual article about Notre Dame joining a conference has begun:

CNNSi.com

This actually leads to some interesting questions, once of which is: does the Big Ten want to expand, and have an evermore increasingly incorrect title? Would expansion include a championship game? Would it help it's current non-conference record (1-1 against the Sun Belt right now, which is the same as the record against the Pac 10)? Assuming expansion happens, and it's not Notre Dame, what effect would it have on other conferences? Will they somehow manage to have a title game prior to December?

So, here are the possibilities:

A 12 team Big Ten (surely they'll have to come up with a new name, unless they start referring to the current bottom dwellers as the Little 2 - guess that would be Northwestern and Minnesota right now) would almost have to have a Structure similar to the SEC /Big 12 or the ACC. In other words, either you have 2 six team divisions, on a geographical basis, and play 3 other teams from the other division in a 2 year cycle, or you have the same 2 six team divisions, without that geographical distinction, one permanent interdivisional rival, and play the other 5 teams in some sort of rotating schedule. Currently, the Big Ten is set up for every team to have two permanent rivals (PSU has OSU and Mich. State, OSU has Mich. and PSU, etc., etc.).

Here's an idea, with ND, of how a geographical split would go, with East vs. West:
East: PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Purdue, ND
West: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern
Pluses for this: the Big Ten teams ND plays semi-regularly are all in its division, and it maintains some of the primary rivalries.
Downside: Much like putting Miami and FSU in separate divisions so (theoretically) they could meet again in the title game, the Big 2 (Mich and OSU) would knock each other out, with only Wisconsin (to round up the top 4 with PSU) in the other division. If you want to include Iowa and Purdue, you've got 4 better teams and 2 better teams (typically) split up.

So, how about non-geographical? Well, here are the lists of the current permanent rivals:
Illinois: Northwestern, Indiana
Indiana: Illinois, Purdue
Iowa: Minnesota, Wisconsin
Michigan: Michigan State, Ohio State
Michigan State: Michigan, Penn State
Minnesota: Iowa, Wisconsin
Northwestern: Illinois, Purdue
Ohio State: Michigan, Penn State
Penn State: Michigan State, Ohio State
Purdue: Indiana, Northwestern
Wisconsin: Iowa, Minnesota

The problem here is someone will have to lose "traditional rivals" for this to work, and other teams to keep theirs. Since PSU and ND would be the newcomers, and we want Michigan and OSU to be in seprate conferences, the line-up would be something like this:
Div. A: OSU, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, PSU, ND
Div. B: Mich, MSU, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern
Permanent rivals: OSU/Mich; PSU/MSU; Iowa/Illinois; Minnesota/Northwestern; Wisconsin/Indiana; ND/Purdue

This allows some balance in the divisions, maintains all the traditional rivals either within division or permanent rival, and also allows the current ND/Purdue game to be pretty regular, as well. It also creates some new divisional rivalries, with the Iowa/Illinois, Minn/NW, and Wisconsin/Indiana. This is the optimal setup, I think, for a 12 team Big Ten.

So, here's the Big Ten if ND joins, as I would see it - but what if not ND?

What are the other possibilities? The Big Ten is the only Division I conference to have all of its member institutions affiliated with the Association of American Universities, an invitation only grouping of schools meeting certain scholarship and research standards, and that is likely going to be a requirement. Also, a new TV market for the floundering Big Ten Network is also going to be a requirement. Current Big Ten bylaws, any expansion must either be in current Big Ten territory, or next to it. So, assuming this isn't changed to allow for a Texas or Colorado, what states can the Big Ten cherry pick from: New York, New Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia, Delaware, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, as well as it's current states, PA, OH, MI, IN, IL, MN, WI, and IA. The leading contenders, according to Wikipedia.com, are Rutgers, Syracuse, Missouri, Nebraska, and Pitt. Texas has been mentioned, but it fails because of the geographical rule. Other teams in the area aren't considered, either because they don't bring enough market, new or otherwise, to the table (Iowa State, any MAC team, rising Western Kentucky), lack of competitiveness on the field (Navy, Army, the MAC teams - though almost every year the MAC teams get their vengeance on a Big Ten team), or strong conference ties elsewhere (Kentucky, Maryland, and ultimately, probably, Nebraska and Missouri). Other teams that might be interesting don't seem to get considered are Cincinnati, Louisville and West Virginia. It's hard to say that the Big East has that much die-hard loyalty, so perhaps a combination of no major new markets and that all three aren't members of the AAU, mentioned above.

Of all these teams, Rutgers and Pitt make the most sense. Syracuse just doesn't bring much to the table, and I think Nebraska and Missouri have too many ties to the Big 12. Rutgers brings the NYC market to the table, and Pitt brings longstanding ties with PSU, plus being in the heart of Big Ten country as it is. Both are AAU members, which, ironically, Notre Dame isn't.

Assuming, then, the Big Ten does expand, what happens to the new teams former conference. The Big East would likely want to get back up to 7 football teams, and the most likely option would be going after Marshall from the C-USA or trying for a current MAC team (Temple, Miami OH, Toledo or Bowling Green are possibilities). Obviously, former Big East member BC and current ACC member Maryland would be attractive, but I think both are pretty much off the radar. Picking from the MAC would actually allow the MAC to have an even number of teams again, and end what must be creative scheduling with 7 in the East and 6 in the West. Taking from the C-USA, though, would probably prompt them to try to pick up another team, and a pretty sensible target would be LA Tech, from the WAC. It would get the C-USA back up to 12, and would also allow LA Tech to cut a lot of costs, considering it's closest conference member is in New Mexico right now. Moreover, the WAC doesn't have a pesky divisional structure to keep balanced.

So here's a peak into how the dominoes might fall in the wake of a Big Ten expansion. Of course, none of this would do anything about the fact that the Big Ten has just been embarrassing so far on the gridiron this year.

Week 2 Review: Texas v. TCU

2007-09-11T16:52:00.000-05:00

Well, the sky is no longer falling in Austin. The Longhorns finally came to play and pulled away from the Frogs in the second half. Some thoughts and ruminations from the game...

OFFENSE

After a rough start, Colt McCoy made one of his best plays as a Horn to get the scoring started in the second half. Jamaal Charles also started slow, but finished with over 100 yards. Nate Jones is the beneficiary of all the attention Limas Sweed receives from the defense. Jones has 17 receptions in two games this year.

Unfortunately, the O-line took a hit this week with the elbow injury to Adam Ulotoski. The Horns are already thin on the line, and cannot afford any more injuries.

DEFENSE

Hello Linebackers! Its good you could join the rest of the D on the field. Jared Norton and Rod Muckelroy lit up the field Saturday night. The D-line played well, limiting the Frog's running attack. The Frogs managed only 13 points, 7 of those coming on an interception return.

Assessment

The Horns will need to play more like they performed in the second half in order to have success the rest of the year. Oklahoma has looked solid, and is the class of the Big 12 after 2 games. The Horns get a good test this week, traveling to Orlando for a game against UCF. The Longhorns will need to maintain their momentum from the second half of Saturday's game to compete with the Sooners later this year.

lessons from week two

2007-09-10T08:27:00.000-05:00

1) If Wake Forest had Riley Skinner, they would have "upset" Nebraska this week. This does not bode well for the Huskers after USC has had to listen to everyone talk about how LSU and Oklahoma are so much better than them.
2) Kansas (yes, Kansas) is the real deal and will shock some teams in the Big 12 (think Nebraska and/or Missouri).
3) As advertised by Steve Spurrier prior to the start of the season, South Carolina is a legitimate contender in the SEC this year.
4) Rutgers is the best team in the Big East and the second best team just might be South Florida.
5) Notre Dame will not go 0-8 to start the season. Try 3-5.

A Modest Proposal

2007-09-07T15:51:00.000-05:00

With the impending rise of Western Kentucky to the ranks of Division I-A, the division will soon have 120 teams. With all the chaos of conference realignment, BCS or playoff arguments, and the general disorganization of Division I-A, I've come up with an idea of how to solve the problem. 15 8 team conferences, with a 16 seed playoff of the 15 conference champs and one at-large bid, to be determined by something approaching the current BCS rankings. Said rankings would also determine the seeding of the playoff. The conferences will be put together geographically, with as much balance as possible while also trying to maintain rivalries. This setup would provide a true conference champion, with only 7 conference games, allowing 5 games a year to be played against traditional rivals now shipped off to another conference and anyone else. I have attempted to maintain, where possble, the geographically based conference names, whether active or not, and even some Division I-AA conference names may crop up. Purely fantasy, I know, but here is my modest proposal for the realignment of Division I-A football.

So, with no further ado, here are my conferences for Division I-A football:

Big East: Buffalo, Syracuse, Army, U Conn, Boston College, Rutgers, Maryland, and Navy
Atlantic: Temple, Pitt, Penn State, West Virginia, Marshall, Virginia, Va Tech, and Kentucky
Ohio Valley: Akron, Ohio, Ohio State, Miami (OH), Cincinnati, Bowling Green, Toledo, and Kent State
Midwestern: Michigan, Mich State, Central Mich, Eastern Mich, Western Mich, Notre Dame, Purdue, and Indiana
MAC: Ball State, Louisville, Illinois, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Western Kentucky
Blue Ridge:Duke, UNC, NC State, Wake Forest, East Carolina, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State, and Vanderbilt
Southeastern: Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Alabama, Auburn, UAB, and Southern Miss
Sun Belt: Florida, FSU, UCF, USF, FIU, FAU, Miami (FL), and Troy
Southern: Ole Miss, Miss. State, Memphis, Arkansas, Arkansas State, LSU, Tulane, and La Tech
Bayou: ULaMo, ULaLa, Rice, Houston, UNT, SMU, Tulsa, and Baylor
Southwest: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, UTEP, Oklahoma, Ok State, and Missouri
Great Plains: Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, and Colorado State
Mountain West: Air Force, New Mexico, NM State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, and Utah State
Big West: UNLV, Nevada, Idaho, Boise State, Washington, Washington State, Oregon, and Oregon State
WAC: Cal, Stanford, San Jose State, Fresno State, UCLA, USC, San Diego State, and Hawaii

Some preliminary comments on this arrangement. Yes, it does lead to some unbalanced conferences, with the Southeastern and Southwest being particularly brutal, and the Ohio Valley and Bayou being particularly easy for the one good to average team in them. However, even the two brutal conferences have only 4-5 teams that each year would be top flight, as opposed to the real SEC, with pretty much every team but the Mississippi teams (and maybe Vandy) being highly competitive this year. On the other hand, even the powder puff conferences are more reminiscent of the FSU ACC years of the early 90's, as opposed to the actual Sun Belt.

So there you go - one man's solution to the mess that is Division I-A football. Not that it will ever happen.

Texas vs. Arkansas State

2007-09-05T18:52:00.000-05:00

Ouch. Nothing makes my heart swell with content like watching the Horns run out of the shotgun. GD still equals God Dammit. What follows is a mix of rational thought and hopeless delusion. Keep in mind, I attended the game, but have yet to watch the TV broadcast.

OFFENSE

Colt McCoy started the game 8 for 8 with two touchdowns, and the Longhorn offense appeared unstoppable. And then the offense stopped. Jamaal Charles' talent continues to be wasted on running out of the shotgun formation. Don't get me wrong, I do not long for the days of the power I. Charles is not durable enough to run it up the middle 30 times a game. At the same time, starting flat-footed seven yards deep in the backfield makes no sense. Charles had to break several tackles just to gain 5 yards. The Horns ran the ball 38 times, 20 of those runs were for two yards or less. The Horns had four opportunities to score from the 3 yard line, and could not get the ball across the goalline. That is inexcusable.

Colt spent the balance of his evening throwing into coverage or throwing into impossibly tight windows. He routinely missed wide-open receivers. He didn't over- or under-throw them, he just didn't see them. McCoy did miss a wide-open Nate Jones while scrambling, a completion would have resulted in another TD.

Lots of work is needed to prepare for TCU.

DEFENSE

It is hard to beat up on the defense too much. Yes they gave up a lot of yardage, but ultimately they held the Indians to 13 points. The line played well, and at times put pressure on the quarterback. Most of the ground yardage came on long scrambles rather than running plays designed for the running back. The secondary play was merely adequate. The young secondary played off of the receivers, giving Arkansas State many yards underneath the coverage. The linebackers, unfortunately, were non-existent. Even when a backer made a big play, it seems a roughing or face-mask penalty wiped out the loss.

The worst news is the injury to Brian Orakpo. He is doubtful for Saturday, and Eddie Jones will have to play in his place. The good news, Jones had the Horns lone interception on the evening.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Special teams was probably the best unit. Kick-offs consistently reached the goalline. Punt and kick returns were decent and on two occasions set the offense up with great field position. McCoy pulled one trick out of the bag, using a quick-kick on 4th down twice. Each time the ball was downed inside the opponent's 20 yardline.

ASSESSMENT

Needless to say, given the Horns were out rushed, out passed, and out-possessed, there has been a lot of negative prognostication. I am not ready to abandon ship just yet, but there is a lot of room for improvement. I'll hold off burying this team for the season until after the TCU game.

McCoy will have to improve his passes and make better decisions. The running game needs improvement, but that may not be possible until the offensive line comes together and develops a push-em around attitude. The defense will need to tighten up and eliminate needless penalties that extend drives.

In the end, the score wasn't pretty, but the Horns were also two plays away from winning 35-13, and maybe we aren't hearing as much chatter this week. Certainly, a good outing against TCU will put a lot of the doubt to rest for the time being. TCU is already a popular pick, so in a sense the Horns may feel like the underdogs at home. Let's see how they react.

Three More Wins, and Other Thoughts from this Week

2007-09-04T12:13:00.000-05:00

After last night, with FSU's new Jimbo Fisher made offense still falling flat and the resulting loss to Clemson, Joe Paterno is two wins (and two FSU losses) away from pulling even with Bobby Bowden for the winningest Division I-A football coach. 3 from claiming it outright again. And yes, I said Divison I-A. I don't believe in the new FBS/FCS nomenclature - if it were just a matter of opting into a bowl system or a playoff, that'd be one thing. But it's a difference between 85 scholarships and 63 scholarships, so I don't have any problem with the I-A/I-AA breakdown.

That being said, what a game between Michigan and Appalachian State. Before focusing too much on the divisional differences, this is not as big of an upset as Temple over Virginia Tech in 1998, or pretty much any Sun Belt team except for Troy beating any BCS conference opponent. Appalachian State is the two-time defending I-AA champion. It owned a 14 game winning streak going into the Big House, longer than the any Division I-A team walking into the season. 3 of its last 4 losses were to Division I-A teams. But wow. We've seen over the past two seasons more losses by I-A teams to I-AA teams than ever before, which is just a sign of growing parity between the divisions, let alone between the BCS and the non-BCS teams. Western Kentucky moving up to Division I-A? I think ASU, one of their primary rivals, is ready to make the jump to the Sun Belt with them. Imagine Middle Tennessee State going into the Big House and coming out with a win? You can't, can you? Anyway, kudos to the Mountaineers, and I hope you don't let this lead to a post-win ahngover, like TCU did with Oklahoma and SMU two years ago.

The first week of the season is funny. Experienced teams with experienced coaches sometimes fall flat, while teams that enter the season with a big question mark seem to shine. With the acknowledgment that you can only take so much from one week, here are my thoughts so far:

1. The underachievers of the week
a. Texas, beware of the Horned Frog. 117 yards rushing against Arkansas State? Really?
b. Auburn, desperately seeking offense. K State was up 13-9 so far into the 4th quarter that I actually texted my condolences to one of my fellow contributors to this blog. This could be a sign that Ron Prince has Kansas State back. It could be a sign that Auburn really missed Brad Lester, held out for academic reasons. Or it could be a sign that the Bulls of USF may be coming out of Jordan-Hare with a win.
c. Michigan. Nuff said

2. The "I don't know what it means cause the opponent was that bad" teams of the week
Penn State, Florida, Ohio State, Boise State, Louisville, Rutgers,Oklahoma, Texas A&M, USC, Hawaii

3. Most overrated teams (I think)
Oklahoma State, Tennessee

4. Biggest surprises of the week (excepting Michigan)
a. ECU at Virginia Tech - whether it was due to all the emotion surrounding this game, Skip Logan doing a tremendous rebuilding job, or the supposed cream of the ACC being not all that impressive, no one expected this game to be as close as it was. If it was just emotion, hopefully that has passed. Otherwise, it may be a long year for the Hokies.
b. Wyoming over Virginia. Wow, bet the Cavaliers wished they had their $2 million a year back, huh? That's a lot of money for a string of 5, 6, and 7 win seasons, but starting off the year with a loss against a non-BCS opponent wasn't part of the deal, I bet. Yes, the Mountain West is probably the best non-BCS conference. And yes, Wyoming has been up and down but generally better the past couple of seasons. But 20 points? Wow - not looking good for the ACC this year.
c. UCF over NC State. Tom O'Brien - feeling nostalgic for Chestnut Hill now?

5. "I've got the first game at Div I-A blues", or, "Here's your wake-up call, sir"
a. Rice's David Bailiff, who lost to Div. I-AA Nicholls State. At least his team last year, the Texas State Bobcats, had the same result last year - a loss by two to Nicholls State.
b. UNT's Todd Dodge. 48 wins in a row at a high school? Well, at least that's within 22 of the margin of victory against the Sooners. Ouch.
c. Minnesota's Tim Brewster. No, the Gophers didn't get blown out. Yes, Bowling Green has the makings of being competitive in the MAC this year. But the Big 10 doesn't schedule MAC teams to lose to them. It's like losing to a Division I-AA team . . ., oh, never mind. For the all excitement and energy Brewster brought on board, there's going to need to be some results soon.

6. Coaching hot seat.
Lloyd Carr (though he shouldn't be, at least until he loses to Ohio State again). Mike Stoops (the Desert Spread isn't working). Sylvester Crooms (MSU will make history by also being the first SEC team to fire an African American head coach). Ted Roof (C'mon, Spurrier could win at Duke. Wait, that was before FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, and BC were in the ACC, huh? Never mind - it is Duke, after all.)

Early predictions for Week 2
TCU over Texas, unless the Longhorns can find an offense.
PSU over ND, unless the Irish can find an offense.
LSU over Va Tech, unless the Hokies can find an offense. (Notice a theme here?)
Oregon over Michigan, unless the Wolverines can pull themselves off the floor after last week.

Upset special of the week
BYU over UCLA. I still don't buy into Karl Dorrell, and a win over Stanford and Motor Mough Harbaugh doesn't mean anything. BYU tuned up against the Wildcats, and will shock the Bruins this Saturday.

week one

2007-09-04T11:29:00.000-05:00

Aside from learning that Michigan's defense needs some REAL work, what else can be gleaned from week one of the season?

1) Notre Dame shall be irrelevant all year (NOT Georgia Tech is a legitimate national title contender).
2) Oklahoma State is not as good as advertised (NOT Georgia is better than advertised).
3) The Big 12 North will be a slugfest this year because the teams are actually good (5 teams have a legitimate chance of going bowling; Iowa State should be the doormat of the league).
4) If Week One performances dictate reality, there is no way in hell Texas is 18 points better than TCU (Indeed, TCU would have drilled Texas if they played last week).
5) FSU will be much improved at the end of the season

Here is what to look for this year:
1) Florida will defend their national title -- I have no idea why people think this team will suddenly go in the tank after Tebow's impressive mop up duty as a freshman. Remember, this guy was recruited at Florida as much for his cannon arm as for his mobility. Granted, the defense lost some big name starters, but this is Florida. The Gators will have a strong shot at repeating as SEC Champions, and I would place them as moderate favorites over LSU to do just that.
2) Oklahoma has finally reloaded -- it may have been a nobody, but this team looked scary efficient. They could have easily scored 100+ if they had not called off the dogs. Look for them to reclaim dominance in the Big 12 South.
3) USC and California are the only true players in the Pac-1o race. Look for UCLA, despite a cosmetically acceptable performance against Stanford, to go in the tank. BYU will take down the Bruins this weekend, and there is a moderate possibility the Dorrell era will come to a surprising close at the end of the year.
4) Michigan can still win the Big 10. Despite the monumental loss, this team still returns as strong an offensive core as anyone in the nation. Play that game 1000 times and Michigan wins 999 times.
5) Louisville, Rutgers, and West Virginia all deserve spots in the top 10. If Mike Teel can pass this year, watch out for Rutgers.
6) The ACC has no teams capable of winning a national title. In what should be an ugly year for the conference, look for Boston College, Virginia Tech, or Georgia Tech to nab the conference title. Miami (FL) will likely once again emerge as the cream of the ACC starting next year.

My picks for the 2007 season

2007-08-25T13:57:00.000-05:00

Big 12

South:

Texas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor

North:

Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado
Kansas
Iowa State

Championship game: Texas over Nebraska

For starters, I really like the Aggies this year. But I hate their schedule. The Ags play at Oklahoma, Tech, Missouri, and Nebraska. In addition, there is the early season non-conference game at Miami. Even if the Ags manage to go 2-2 on the road in the Big 12, they could still end up in third in the South, again. Texas and Oklahoma are close, but until I see Sam Bradford in game action, I can't give Oklahoma the edge. Nebraska is the best team in the North, but the champion comes out of the South again this year.

Big 11

Michigan
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan State
Northwestern
Minnesota
Indiana

Michigan needs to get it done this year. Chad Henne and Mike Hart are finally seniors, and another loss to Ohio State could spell doom for Lloyd Carr. Wisconsin finished last year 12-1 with the lone loss to Michigan. Nevertheless, I am not quite ready to jump on the Bielma bandwagon. Ohio State and Penn State could flip-flop, given the Lions get both the Buckeyes and the Badgers at home this year. My surprise team is Illinois. The Illini are still a few years away, but they played in some close games last year. Look for them to win (and probably lose) some games they shouldn't this year.

SEC

West:

LSU
Auburn
Arkansas
Bama
Mississippi State
Ole Miss

East:

Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Kentucky
Vandy

Championship game: LSU over Tennessee

I really like LSU this year. The Tigers are stout on defense, and should have an adequate offense. Their schedule sets up well too. Florida will take a step back this year, leaving room for Tennessee to win the East. And yes, the SEC is the best conference in the nation. Now let's never speak of it again.

Big East

West Virginia
Louisville
Rutgers
South Florida
Pitt
Cincinnati
Syracuse
UConn

This conference is very competitive at the top. Just like last year, expect USF to win a stunner or two. West Virginia is strong on offense, but suspect on defense. I wouldn't be surprised if any of the top four schools wins the conference.

Pac 10

USC
UCLA
California
Oregon State
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon
Washington
Washington State
Stanford

USC is the team to beat again, and their schedule sets up pretty well for them. There are potential stumbling blocks with games at Nebraska and at Cal. UCLA continues to improve and can build on a season ending win over USC last year.

ACC

Atlantic:

Florida State
Boston College
Wake Forest
Clemson
Maryland
NC State

Coastal:

Va Tech
Miami
Ga Tech
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke

Championship game: Va Tech over Florida St.

The ACC is an interesting conference this year. Look for the return of Florida State to national prominence. There is a lot of excitement at the Carolina schools, with the hiring of Butch Davis at UNC and Tom O'brien at NC State, but those schools will struggle. Miami also has a new coach. It is hard to pick against Va Tech, given they will play this season riding a wave of emotion. They will be tested early out of conference, with a road game at LSU.

BCS Bowls:

BCS Championship: USC v. LSU

Rose Bowl: Michigan v. UCLA

Sugar Bowl: Tennessee v. Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: Texas V. West Virginia

Orange Bowl: Va Tech v. Oklahoma

2007 Texas Season Preview

2007-08-14T17:38:00.000-05:00

The 2006 Texas football season started with promise but ended with disappointment. The fear of a Vince Young hangover was temporarily put to rest by the emergence of Colt McCoy at quarterback. Unfortunately, an injury to McCoy derailed a Big 12 winning season and cost the Longhorns a third consecutive trip to a BCS bowl. The issues that dogged the Longhorns at the end of last season remain questions for the upcoming year: health at the QB position, the efficiency of the running attack, and a suspect secondary. Can the Longhorns answer these lingering question en route to another BCS appearance, or will the ghosts of last year continue to haunt Texas?

OFFENSE

The 2005 Texas team featured the most prolific offense in NCAA history. The 2006 team could not match that output, but thanks to the success of McCoy was able to put up points. The running game started strong, but faltered down the stretch. The offensive line lost three starters to the NFL, but the receiving corps return every starter and almost every backup.

The Quarterbacks

No one could have predicted McCoy's success as a freshman. McCoy's emergence was at once a blessing and a curse. The Longhorns passing game produced above expectations, but the depth chart took a hit with Jevan Snead opting to transfer to Ole Miss. The Longhorns even missed out on prize recruit John Brantley, who chose to sit three years behind Tim Tebow rather than three years behind McCoy. McCoy set a school-record with 29 passing touchdowns and threw for over 2500 yards. The Longhorns hope McCoy can avoid injury again and avoid a sophomore slump.

The Horns need McCoy to stay healthy, because of the aforementioned transfer of Snead, Texas is left with two freshman backups who have never taken a college snap. Sherrod Harris should win the back-up job, but suffered a strained MCL at practice. Coaches hope he will be healthy for the opener against the Arkansas State Blanks. Third string belongs to the dynamic John Chiles - who will be difficult to keep off the field, at QB or otherwise. CJ Kinne is being redshirted this year.

The Running Backs

Frequent readers of this blog know how big a fan I am of Jamaal Charles. He is lightening quick, but needs to prove he is durable enough to carry 30 times a game. Chris Ogbonnaya will spell Charles and may be the featured short-yardage back. Coaches are also high on Vondrell McGee.

When the Horns use a full-back, it will be Luke Tiemann and Antwann Cobb. Defensive tackle Derek Lokey will be used at full-back in short yardage and goalline situations. Lokey was a monster in this role until he broke his leg in the Nebraska game last year. The goalline offense fell off sharply after Lokey went down. The Henry Melton experiment is over too. Once he returns from his suspension, Melton will be limited to defensive end duty.

The Offensive Line

The O-line will be rebuilding this year, and therefore is a cause for concern on the 40 acres. The Horns lost three linemen to graduation. Most important of these is Kasey Studdard, who brought 100% attitude to the position. The O-line will be helped with the return of Cedric Dockery, who is returning early from an ACL tear. Tony Hills, Jr. has been solid at tackle and sophomore Adam Ulatoski had a good freshman year. Dallas Griffin will step in at center, and Charlie Tanner or Chris Hall will have to step up at the other guard position. The Horns also have a number of talented freshman who may see playing time.

This O-line doesn't feature the talent of the 2005 line, but will be relied upon to give Colt time to find his receivers. Speaking of...

The Receiving Corp

This is hands down the best receiving group, top to bottom, of Mack Brown's tenure, and may be the best receiving group in the country. Yes, this group is better than the Williams, Johnson, and Thomas group of the early 2000s. Every receiver from last year is back, led by big-play receiver Limas Sweed. Lining up with Sweed are speedster Billy Pittman and 24 year old Quan Cosby. Nate Jones, Jordan Shipley, and George Walker are the second team receivers.

Many Longhorn faithful are excited about the development of Jermichael Finley at tight end. The Longhorns are in need of a dependable receiving tight end since the departure of David Thomas. Finley definitely needs to improve on his blocking though. Junior Peter Ullman is the other tight end for the rare occasion the Longhorns line up in a two tight-end formation.

DEFENSE

The departure of Gene Chizik led to the promotion of Duane Akina to Defensive Coordinator. While Chizik engineered the defense that won the BCS Championship in 2005, many Longhorn fans were unhappy with the performance of the defense last year. Despite the presence of a Thorpe award winner and two other NFL caliber players, last years pass defense was ranked 99th in the NCAA. Grumbling on the 40 Acres seems to lead to the conclusion that Chizik and Akina were not always on the same page. Akina seems to prefer an aggressive defense whereas Chizik favored a conservative scheme. The Longhorns have a strong front 7, and Akina's new-fangled blitzing attack will have to take the pressure off of the secondary.

The Defensive Line

Once again, the Horns should feature a dominant D-line. NFL scouts are salivating over DT Frank Okam. He is a big, big man. Although the defense had issues against the pass, the run defense performed well due in part to the presence of Okam. The line will be bolstered by the return of Derek Lokey. Roy Miller, who played well in place of the injured Lokey last year, and Ben Alexander will rotate in with Okam and Lokey.

Despite the departure of Brian Robinson and Tim Crowder, there should be no drop-off at the end position. Juniors Brian Orakpo and Aaron Lewis each saw significant playing time last year. Orakpo has NFL talent, and Lewis is a bulldog. Former goal line back Henry Melton will be a backup after he returns from suspension. Lamar Houston is also a suitable backup. The Longhorns were excited about true freshman Andre Jones, but his availability is in question after some off-season legal troubles.

The Linebackers

Despite the performance of the secondary last year, the linebackers may have been the most disappointing unit. The linebacker position is loaded with talent, but they rarely made an impact in games last year. Some of the lack of stellar play may have been the result of injury, as Drew Kelson and Roderick Muckelroy each dealt with injuries throughout the season. Kelson has been moved back to the secondary, but Muckelroy returns along with the rest of the unit from last year. Rashad Bobino will anchor the middle and fan favorite Robert Killebrew will play outside along with Muck. The second team unit is also formidable. Scott Derry is back. He started for most of last year, and may have been the most dependable linebacker. Longhorn coaches are high on both Jared Norton and Sergio Kindle. Kindle will have to wait three games to return to the field due to off the field issues. Once he does return, the Longhorns will have two full linebacking units to rotate during game play.

The Secondary

The secondary can't play much worse than last year, but can they be any better? The troubles against the pass were perplexing, given the talent on display. Recall the last two Thorpe Award winners wore burnt orange. Akina was in charge of the secondary, and was given credit for turning Michael Huff and Aaron Ross into great defensive backs. Once again, he has talent to work with. The success of the pass defense will depend on his being able to coach up that talent.

The secondary will benefit from the return of Marcus Griffin, twin brother of former standout Michael. Drew Kelson will move back to the secondary to lend experience, though he may also see time at linebacker. Cornerbacks Brandon Foster and Ryan Palmer have been patiently biding their time behind Griffin (Michael), Ross, and Tarrel Brown. Now is their time to shine. If Foster and Palmer falter, a talented crop of newcomers await their chance to show what they can do. Look for Chykie Brown, Deon Beasley, Curtis Brown, and Ben Wells to get some playing time.

Given the lack of experience, the secondary is the unit with the biggest question mark hanging over it. Akina will have earned his stripes if he can return the passing defense to dominance.

Special Teams

New kick-off rules will put a greater emphasis on the return game across the nation. The Longhorns will continue to use Quan Cosby as a return man, but don't be surprised to see Jamaal Charles returning as well.

Ryan Bailey has parlayed his game winning heroics in Lincoln into a starting job, and will do the kicking on field goals. The Longhorns also have Hunter Lawrence and Trevor Gerland returning to help with punts and kick-offs. The kicking game should be solid.

The Longhorns are often over-looked for their kicking defense. Since 2000, the Longhorns have blocked more kicks and punts than any other team. The Horns will look to keep the pressure on the opposition.

Fearless Predictions

Despite the emergence of Colt McCoy as a blossoming star, I can't feel as confident about this team as years past. This team needs to re-establish its identity with the run game. That will be difficult to do with the losses on the offensive line. The mystery of the passing defense needs to be solved as well.

That said, this is a team capable of winning the conference championship, but contending for a national championship is too much to ask. The schedule sets up nicely for the Horns. They play TCU, Nebraska, and Texas Tech at home. However, the Horns play dangerous Oklahoma State and Texas A&M on the road. There is also the annual game in Dallas against the Sooners. I look for this team to go 10-2, with the losses to either Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., or A&M.

Ah... The Fall is almost upon us.

2007-08-13T18:48:00.000-05:00

Let the trashtalking begin!

The Alabama Coaching Conundrum

2006-12-11T14:55:00.000-06:00

So, once again, the brain trust in Tuscaloosa is looking for a new coach (the fifth one in as many years), and have already been spurned by Rich Rodriguez of West Virginia. Now whether it was WVU's ability to must a decent counter-offer, or the tears shed by his wife at the thought of leaving cosmopolitan Morgantown for Tuscaloosa, or the absolute disregard Bama has for its coaches is hard to say. But here are some reasons why Bama has built the bed its currently lying in, and why I'll be surprised if any good coach in anything approaching a good situation will uproot to pace the fields at Bryant Denny Stadium:

1. The treatment of Mike Shula
Was Shula a great coach? No, though he certainly was the son of one. But he didn't deserve to be fired after this 6-6 season. Why, you might ask? Well, I'll tell you. Shula had been coaching since 2003, and prior to this season, had compiled a 20-17 record. When Shula took over for Mike Price (more on him later), Alabama was on NCAA probation. That same probation ended, well, gee whiz, it HASN'T ended yet. In fact, it will end next year. Now, not everyone can pull a Terry Bowden and rattle off the first (before 2004) undefeated season in the history of their school. But to have been a coach entirely during a probation, have a 10 win season, and be over .500 at the end of those 4 seasons should have been good enough. It wasn't, and due to losing 4 in a row to Auburn (who have gone 8-5, 13-0, 9-3, and 10-2 those seasons), he's gone, and any new coach should be leery about jumping into the mix.

2. Dennis Franchione's jump to A&M
What happened that a move to Texas A&M, even with looming probation, was more attractive than staying in Tuscaloosa? I guess it was Alabama fans and boosters. 7-5 and 10-3 in his two years there, Franchione probably would've been able to continue winning, even with the limitations. He's been able to cobble together a mostly successful team, in a Texas recruiting field where he ranks at least fourth (behind OU, UT, and LSU), and possible behind Texas Tech and TCU in recent years, as the most attractive destination for Texas high school players. Meanwhile, in Alabama, aside from the few who have a love affair with some other state's schools, the number one (depending on family affiliation) is always going to be Auburn or Alabama. Trust me, no high schooler in the state decides he'd rather play for Troy or UAB - if it's a Bama family, Bama is the target. Whether it was just a preference for Texas, or whether it was the pressure cooker (and completely unreasonable expectations for the past 25 years) at Bama, Coach Fran chose A&M, much to the delight of Auburn fans year in and year out.

3. Mike Dubose: You can bang 'em, as long as you win
Let's face facts: Dubose faced a sexual harassment situation in 1999, but kept his job because he went 10-3 and beat Auburn. He lost his job the next year due to a 3-8 season, not morality issues. All his dalliances did was get Mike Price fired for his evening with the stripper before he coached a single down.

4. The Rival Problem (or the Cooper Conundrum)
John Cooper got fired from Ohio State for not beating Michigan. Lloyd Carr is under fire in some quarters for not being able to beat Ohio State, and Mack Brown was under a lot of fire until 2005 for his problems with OU. So, as we can see, a coach with an impeccable record at a school not hamstrung by multiple years of probation can face problems when he can't beat the rivals. Now take Bama, which is still on probation, and definitely playing second fiddle to Auburn since the Stallings era, and imagine the difficulty in trying to build a program back to what it's been while facing a desire for immediate success. A new chef isn't going to turn ground check into Kobe beef - what do you expect, Bama fans?

5. Instant Gratification
Tom Osborne coached for 21 years at Nebraska before winning a NC. Joe Paterno coached for 16 at PSU before his first. Bobby Bowden coached for 16 years at FSU before getting one. Lou Holtz had a 19 year career before winning the big one at ND. The Bear had been at Bama for only 4 years before winning one, but he'd been a head coach for 16 years altogether at that point. Let's look at Bama's post-Bear coaches to see why, just maybe, the lack of patience may be working against them:
Ray Perkins: 4 years at Bama, 0 years total prior
Bill Curry: 3 years at Bama, 7 years total prior (winning record at Bama, just couldn't beat pesky Auburn)
Gene Stallings: 7 years at Bama, 7 years total prior (and oh, there were some major NCAA problems during Stallings era)
Mike Dubose: 4 years at Bama, 0 years total prior
Dennis Franchione: 2 years at Bama, 11 years total prior
Mike Price: 2 minutes at Bama (never coached a game, so experience doesn't really matter)
Mike Shula: 4 years at Bama, 0 years total prior

Amazing how the guys who had prior experience had winning records as coaches at Bama. Even Shula did well compared to Perkins or Dubose, but Curry and Shula, while having overall winning records, couldn't beat the Tigers.

So Bama, enjoy your situation - let's see what other rising coach you can wear out in the next three-four years. Don't be surprised if there aren't many takers. But hey, Miami's already hired a coach, so maybe Bernie Kosar is still available . . .

The best argument for a playoff

2006-11-20T09:10:00.000-06:00

I've never been a playoff guy, and still am not, but the last three years have provided compelling reasons to support one. In '04, an average Oklahoma team that probably shouldn't've been ranked was voted into the NC game. Then, in the last two years, we've seen 3 #1 vs. #2 matchups. Two of them - last year's Rose Bowl and this past weekend's Michigan -tOSU game - have featured games in which the teams combined for an average of 80 points. 80 points is not a championship game. 80 points is a reflection of media bias. The system in I-A football is theoretically superior to March Madness or any such silliness, but we've now apparently found the 200 biggest idiots in the world to make the voting decisions.

Rutgers: the MNC?

2006-11-09T23:33:00.000-06:00

Ah, God bless Rutgers, for completely fouling up the BCS, no matter what happens from this point. After watching the thrilling Louisville at Rutgers (first half, Louisville blowout; second half, Louisville shut out, Rutgers scores 21 unanswered points for the win), I am convinced of a couple of things:

1. If Rutgers goes undefeated, it should be in the BCS Championship Game. Why? We're at the point that, at most, there will be 3 unbeatens at the end of the season. Boise State. The winner of Ohio State-Michigan (assuming both are unbeaten by Nov. 18, which, after last week, may not be so certain). And Rutgers, which controls its own destiny now. If the general consensus had been that an unbeaten Louisville or WVU should be in it, how can Rutgers not be included, if it manages this feat?

2. That doesn't mean that they will. Unfortunately, without a lot of help from the humans, an unbeaten Rutgers may be lower ranked in the BCS ratings than not only Texas, Florida, and Auburn (if all three win out), but also the loser of Ohio State-Michigan. Talk about needing to scrap the system - an unbeaten from a BCS conference being shut out? Heads will roll.

Come on, voters - if Louisville deserved it, Rutgers would too. Go Scarlet Knights! Keep on winning.

The NFL Draft and conferences: By the #s

2006-11-02T07:53:00.000-06:00

Here are the number of players taken in the NFL draft from the years 2002-2006 (that would correspond with the 2001-2005 college seasons)

SEC - 169
Big 10 - 142
ACC - 133*
Pac 10 - 104
Big 12 - 83
Big East - 30*
*Miami and VaTech counted in ACC.

During that time, there have been 10 participants in the BCS NC game. 4 have come from the Big XII, 2 from the Pac 10, 2 from Miami, now in the ACC but in the Big East both times it appeared, and 1 each from the Big 10 and SEC.

Draw your own conclusions.

The Colley Problem: Still not solved

2006-10-20T12:27:00.001-05:00

Earlier, I posted about Wes Colley's not considering I-AA games in his rankings (included in the BCS formula). The concern was that rather high profile BCS programs (Colorado and Northwestern) had lost to I-AA teams, and the teams that play them were not being "punished" for it. After Indiana's loss to a I-AA team (Southern Illinois, the "other" school where Brandon Jacobs played college ball), Colley emailed me saying that he was developing some code ideas to count the results. He has not done so. The result? Big 10 team Indiana is ranked at #31 in the Colley poll, with its record listed at 4-2 (it's actually 4-3; but of course the SIU game isn't counted). Coming in at #32 is Wazhington State at 4-3.

That means that if, say, Michigan were to beat Ohio State, and there were no unbeatens or Michigan were the only one, if Auburn (or Cal or USC) were competing with tOSU for the remaining slot, they'd fare WORSE as a result of Wazzu's having lost to (pick one) Auburn, Cal, or USC than tOSU b/c of Indiana's lost to Southern Illinois.

If that isn't backwards, I don't know what is.

The Colley Problem: Still not solved

2006-10-20T12:27:00.000-05:00

Texas vs. Baylor

2006-10-17T14:29:00.000-05:00

I was at Auburn-Florida, so I didn't get to see the Horns in action, but saw they gave up 31. At first I assumed it was mostly garbage time pts. but that doesn't seem to be the case. What happened? Look ahead to NU, or something more problematic?

Reason No. 4576 why Division IA College Football needs a playoff . . .

2006-10-15T23:36:00.000-05:00

Okay - a new low in the polls after this week's games. I'll take each one on in turn.

AP poll voters - I understand my beloved Nittany Lions not being ranked. Really, I do. Three losses, two of which were close (as anyone who actually WATCHED the Ohio State game would know), even to #1, #2, and #10 in your poll, is not justification to have enough votes to be ranked in the top 25. But what kills me is that not a single pollster voted Penn State even #25. No single points. Iowa, which lost to Indiana of all teams, and Georgia, who provided Vandy with a number of firsts this weekend, have 61 and 63 points, respectively. I'm sorry - you get votes for losing to teams you shouldn't have lost to, but not for losing to those you should?

Even worse, the coaches' poll still has Iowa and Georgia ranked. That is worse than last year's debacle with the Harris poll voter being the brick laying son-in-law or whaterver of Troy University's coach. How can anyone, who follows college football, think those two teams should be ranked at all?

But, to top everything off, the BCS poll has Tulsa as Number 25. Tulsa. Now I don't want to badmouth the Golden Hurricane, but let's compare some notes. Tulsa is 5-1, after losing to BYU by 25 points, and beating the powerhouses from Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, Navy, and East Carolina. Their only decent win is against Southern Miss. Meanwhile, 6-1 Pittsburgh? Not in the BCS top 25. 6-1 Wake Forest? Nope, not there either. 6-1 Missouri is there, with a sole quality win over Texas Tech, but Texas A&M who BEAT Missouri yesterday is not. For all those who've said the computers are less biased and more objective than the human polls, this surely must show the failure in relying on computers. Ah, Tulsa - enjoy your stay, due to whatever foul programming mistake that put you in the BCS top 25. I don't expect it to last too long.

The Bowl Picture, Part 2

2006-10-15T21:23:00.000-05:00

Another weekend of college football, and more bowl predictions go by the way side. My previosuly decided prediction of Florida playing Ohio State in the MNC is now gone, as Auburn is clearly the best placed one loss team to end up there, and Texas is hoping a lot of chips falls its way.

Anyway, to continue, here are my next few predictions.

Hawaii Bowl (Pac Ten 6 vs. WAC) - Washington State vs. Hawaii.
Isn't every game a bowl game for Hawaii? As long as the Warriors are bowl eligible, they are likely to be in this bowl. Meanwhile, Wazzu seems to have pulled it self together enough to manage 6th in the Pac 10. 2 more wins, and they'll be bowl eligible.

Moter City Bowl (MAC vs. Big Ten 7) - Central Michigan vs. San Jose State
The Big Ten is going to be lucky to ahve 6 bowl eligible teams besides Ohio State (my predicted number one and BCS Championship Game participant), so filling this slot is going to be hard. Seeing as its likely to be a bowl eligible MAC team or WAC team left out in the cold, and the MAC already has one slot, I'm going out on a limb and picking San Jose State. Only two more wins to get bowl eligible - surely they can manage that in the WAC. Meanwhile, CMU gets the nod as my predicted #2 in the MAC this season.

Emerald Bowl (ACC 4 or 5 vs. Pac Ten 4 or 5) - Washington vs. Virginia Tech
Ty Willingham has rebuilt Washington to the point that the Huskies should go bowling this season. Meanwhile, Beamer Bowl has had a little drop off, and Va Tech should slide down to the 4 or 5 spot in the ACC this year.

Independence Bowl (Big 12 7/8 vs. SEC 8) - Bowling Green vs. South Carolina
The Big 12 is going to be scrambling to have 8 bowl eligible teams this year, but the Bears are at 3-4. Only 3 more games to reach bowl eligibility. Unfortunately, those games are Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. Assuming a loss to Oklahoma, a win against Kansas, and then you've got to win two of the remaining three? Not going to happen. The MAC is likely to have an extra bowl eligible team or two this year, so expect Bowling Green (or possibly Western Michigan) to slot in here. South Carolina will win enough to get bowl eligible, and make the trip to Shreveport.

Texas Bowl (Big 12 vs. Big East or C-USA) - Oklahoma State vs. Rutgers
Oklahoma State will sneak across the wire with 6 or 7 wins, and Rutgers, going to back to back bowls for the first time ever, will make the trip out to Houston.

Holiday Bowl (Pac Ten 2 vs. Big 12 3) - USC vs. Oklahoma
USC will drop at least one to Cal and/or Oregon, and fail to win the Pac 10 this year. Meanwhile, OU will continue without Adrian Peterson, as both Missouri and Texas A&M's early inflated records will collapse in the back half.

Another 6 down, 20 more to go.

The Bowl Picture - My Predictions, on the Season So Far, Part 1

2006-10-12T10:17:00.000-05:00

There are 32 bowl games this year, so that means we need 64 bowl eligible teams (that don't end up in brawls, anyway - be careful, Clemson-South Carolina). Here's the first of my quick and dirty predictions, looking at the teams today, and predicting their probable outcome.

Poinsettia (MWC 2/3 vs. at-large) - BYU v. Army
BYU seems to be back, but I don't think back enough to win the MWC. Army has got an arrangement with the Poinsettia, so expect a 6-6 Army to get the nod.

Las Vegas (Pac-10 4 vs. MWC 1) - UCLA v. Utah
The Las Vegas Bowl will sponsor a rematch between these two teams, which UCLA won handily the first time 31-10. Let's see how well the rematch will go for them.

New Orleans (Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA) - La.-Lafayette vs. East Carolina.
The Ragin' Cajuns have actually beat two non-conference opponents (Eastern Michigan and Houston). That's right, the same Houston that came up a point short against Miami. Expect them to win out in the Sun Belt. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz seems to have the Pirates good enough to go 6-6, for 6th place in the C-USA and a bowl trip to New Orleans.

New Mexico (MWC 4 vs. WAC) - Air Force vs. Fresno State
Air Force seems to have reloaded enough to coax out 7 wins this season, while Fresno State needs to stop worrying about the big boys and start winning in conference.

Birmingham (C-USA vs. Big East or MAC) - UAB vs. South Florida
UAB won't quite make it to the top of the C-USA this season, and it'll be hard for the inaguaral Birmingham Bowl to not snag them. Meanwhile, the Bulls will just make the cut, and edge out a potential MAC bowl qualifier out here.

Armed Forces (MWC 2/3 vs. C-USA 4) - TCU vs. UTEP
The Texas match-up. TCU has too much work to do to win the MWC again, and UTEP doesn't seem poised to win out in the C-USA.

6 down, 26 more to go.

Texas Fight

2006-10-10T18:19:00.000-05:00

Thanks to the magic of DVR, I just watched the TX/OU game again. The Texas defense was doing some serious hitting. I haven't seen a Texas D hit like that in recent memory. Chizik and Akina personally challenged some of those guys last week and it made an impact.

However, the defense is still susceptible to PA passes, and that is disconcerting. Here's hoping they lock up the pass defense so this team can remain in position to defend the MNC.

Texas needs Auburn, Penn St., and Arizona St. to man up and pull upsets at home this week. I have officially given up on Michigan St. doing anything meaningful this year.

the only solution

2006-10-09T09:36:00.000-05:00

As I noted in my August post that no one was a true #1 (at least in the preseason), the stretch Auburn played vs. S. Carolina, Arkansas, and Florida was so brutal likely no one could survive it. That's true, as proven on Saturday. There's no shame in losing to Arkansas - after Calvin Johnson, McFadden is the single best offensive skill player in the nation. There is shame - horrible shame - in being physically manhandled the way Auburn was on Saturday.

Arkansas threw ten passes the entire game, and just 5 in the final 3 quarters. As Pat Dye said after a brutal loss in the '80s, "They took away our manhood." Such was the case on Saturday. Auburn looked positively Shula-ish.

There should be severe, brutal consequences. The only thing I can come up with is Japanese style ritual suicide.

2006-10-02T11:16:00.001-05:00

The Top 10

2006-10-02T11:16:00.000-05:00

1. Ohio State - two solid road wins
2. Auburn - beat the best team anyone's beaten so far
3. LSU - Dominant against everyone except Auburn
4. Michigan - Solid wins against ND and Wisky earn them a pass for a sluggish win over Minn.
5. Florida - Solid start; will their offense be able to score against the top two defenses in the country the next two weeks?
6. Louisville - Dominant so far; can they keep it up with the injuries?
7. Tennessee - Cutcliffe + QB with famous sports last name = big time production. Again.
8. Georgia - Nasty D; need a baby QB to be more consistent, or Tereshinski to get back to 100%
9. Texas - A win over an improved OU team, and they could be back in the NC hunt
10. Georgia Tech - As the most prescient contributor on the Ocho, I commented last year that we saw flashes of what this team could be. Former Auburn QB is doing a good job as full fledged OC.

The Cinderella Report

2006-09-27T16:51:00.000-05:00

Well, we're 4 weeks into the season, and we've got a grand total of three, count em, three undefeated mid-major teams left. Let's break them down, and see how likely either one is to end up undefeated at the end of the season, and who's likely to gain a BCS bowl berth this year.

1. TCU - The Horned Frogs just have to take care of business in conference to go undefeated, and get a likely BCS bowl invite. After defeating Texas Tech (and Baylor, too, I guess) from the Big 12, the only remaining hurdle is the conference schedule. With a game at Utah at Oct. 5, and a visit from BYU tomorrow night, TCU should likely know its fate. Win both of those, and a BCS berth is almost guaranteed. Lose either and it's a much harder road ahead. Of course, this is the same TCU that after beating Oklahoma last year still managed to lost to SMU the next week. Be wary of a letdown this week against BYU, and the possibility of slipping up somewhere down the line in conference play. Oh yeah, they play Army, too, but let's just call that a win.

2. Boise State - Boise State has three challenges remaining, and only one of them is on the Smurf Turf at home. The Broncos play at Utah this week, face Fresno State on Nov. 1, and play at Nevada Nov. 25. While Boise State doesn't seem to be feeling the loss of Dan Hawkins, the Broncos MUST go undefeated to rise high enough to contend for a BCS bowl bid. As the MWC is on the verge of being the unofficial 7th BCS conference, and is seen that way by the pollsters, an undefeated, or possibly even a 1 loss TCU is likely to be more highly ranked than an undefeated Boise State. also, unlike TCU, Boise State is prone to dropping one or two games in-conference on the road to perfection, so even if it makes it past the speed bumps I mentioned, there's always the chance for the Broncos to blow it on the road.

3. Houston - The surprisingly undefeated Cougars are in the lead in C-USA right now, but don't count on them to make it to the end. Why, you might ask? Because they play Miami, at Miami, this Saturday. Now, we all know Miami isn't what it used to be, and a loss to the Cougs will certainly be Larry Coker's death knell, so the 'Canes are likely to be fired up for this one. In the event that 17 year starter Kevin Kolb (I know, it just feels that way) manages to outshoot Miami and stymie its defense, the Cougs will still face more competition in-conference than either Boise State or TCU. While they get both UTEP and UCF at home, they play at Southern Miss, which should be a stumbling block for them. On the other hand, if the Cougs do manage to beat both Miami and Southern Miss, and run the table (including the C-USA title game), expect them to contend with TCU for the Cinderella this year. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening, but if it does, well, then, go Cougs.

Because Some of Them Have Contracts They Want to Honor . . .

2006-09-24T08:24:00.000-05:00

See, the problem with doing things at the last minute (or at the last year, for football scheduling) is all the pretty dance partners probably already have dates.

For instance, Penn State already has its non-conference schedule for 2007 set, with Notre Dame, Florida International, Buffalo, and Temple next year. While I'm sure an upgrade to an opponent like Auburn to replace one of the three bottom dwellers would be nice, I think our program probably just wants to honor contracts. Ohio State, likewise, has their schedule completed, with Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, and Kent State. Notre Dame also has all 12 games filled. Miami's schedule for 2007 hasn't been released, but it has been released that they will be playing Oklahoma in 2007.

Texas, meanwhile, doesn't seem to have the same problem, as it has an empty non-conference game slot to go with TCU, Central Florida, and Rice. Same with Michigan, which has Eastern Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oregon on tap.

So, let's not throw stones at those teams who already have filled out their schedules, and want to honor contracts. (Remember Bowling Green? I bet you do!). As for Texas and Michigan, while it is possible that the avoidance of playing Auburn may have something to do with not wanting to schedule a team that's pretty successful right now, it may also have something to do with what Auburn's schedule has available. Perhaps a hom-home series split between 2007 and 2010 just isn't that attractive to a lot of teams. In addition, Auburn is looking for a season opener, at home. Both Texas and Michigan already have potentially tough non-conference challenges, as does Miami and our teams with set schedules already.

Along those lines, I had a difficult time in finding Auburn's 2007 schedule. And by difficult, I mean I couldn't find it. So if Auburn is scrambling to fill its schedule, whether with big boys or not, I would comment that trying to line someone up in 2006 is much like asking someone to prom about 2 days before the event. While the addition of the 12th game may be at fault, there are some teams (like Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame) who haven't had that problem.

Texas, Penn State refuse to play Auburn

2006-09-22T15:49:00.000-05:00

Chances that when this slot is eventually filled (at least in '07) with a I-AA/SunBelt/bad CUSA or WAC opponent that the media will remember this and blame any other program: ZERO.

http://www.al.com/sports/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/sports/115883012931120.xml&coll=2&thispage=1

That's what Auburn's athletics director keeps hearing when he tries to line up a big-name opponent for next season. While no one will say it, Auburn has made inquiries with Michigan, Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas. No dice.

Whining about Bad Calls

2006-09-20T07:44:00.000-05:00

With the furor over the horrible calls that ended the OU-Oregon game, and the controversy over the calls in the Auburn-LSU game, I'm reminded of nothing more than school-yard kids calling names and calling for do-overs in kick ball.

This is not to say that the calls were (or weren't) bad, or that bad calls aren't a part of the game. But bad calls should be complained about by fans, sports writes, and other people who really don't have any ability to affect the game. Complaining about bad calls is as much a part of the game as complaining about the BCS or the new timing rules. Even complaints by coaches and players have their place, at least within the first couple of days after the game. But this, this is something new.

The fits being thrown by the administration of both OU and LSU are unprofessional, and show that both schools are missing the point. OU President (and fans), look - the Pac 10 suspended them, recognized they were bad calls, and you unfortunately got shafted. Guess what? Deal with it. You can't open the door to review these post-game, or no final score will ever be final again. Consider yourself Gore-ed and the Pac 10 refs are your Katherine Harris. But for the sake of the game, you've got to let it go. LSU AD - same goes for you. Sorry everybody decided that the calls you thought were bad weren't bad, but guess what - that's the way the ball bounces sometimes. Sometimes the ball bounces against you.

Hey, here's an even better concept. You want to avoid losing a game due to a bad call? Actually play well enough that the bad call doesn't matter. For all the hullabaloo about the onside kick, no one seems to admit that the OU defense, after the call, couldn't stop Oregon from scoring. If the D holds up, then the call doesn't matter. Or that the OU D couldn't stop Oregon from scoring BEFORE the onside kick. Same deal with LSU - the complaints don't stem from the final drive where JaMarcus Russell inexplicably throws the ball to the one player NOT in the end zone, or his decision to run the ball with time running out, and not get out of bounds. No, the dispute is from earlier in the game.

OU, LSU, and everyone else - you don't want bad calls to determine the outcome of your game? Then win the games on your own, and don't blame the calls for your meltdowns after them.

The worst call ever? (OU-Oregon)

2006-09-19T22:56:00.000-05:00

I hate OU as much as the next guy, but this is pretty bad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I89oW2fd_pg

Here, not only did Oregon touch the ball before it went 10 yards on the onside kick (thus, automatically giving the ball to OU), but also, it appears that Oregon never actually recovered the ball, and OU did.

This rivals the other "worst call ever," which took place in Auburn-Vandy 2001. Vandy receiver Dan Stricker dropped a ball (never had possession) and was out of bounds, but was credited with a touchdown. This is in that league. The Sooners, unlike LSU, have a legitimate gripe. Disclaimer: I was at Auburn-LSU and forgot to DVR OU-Oregon, so I don't know what other calls happened (perhaps OU got some bad calls its way earlier), so I'm in no way alleging conspiracy, or even that OU was, on net, screwed by the officials. This was not a good call, though.

Update on the Colley situation

2006-09-19T12:44:00.000-05:00

The Ocho is making a difference. Here's a recent email convo I had with Wes Colley of the Colley Matrix:

Ugh, the Indiana game actually set me to coding up some ideas for
handling I-AA.

Quoting "Me">:
> Mr. Colley,
>
> Thank you for your prompt and professional reply. I agree with you
> that I-AA has been of little concern in the past. However, I see two
> reasons why this has changed this year. First, the NCAA added the
> 12th game, but did not add an additional week in which to play the
> game. Thus, many more teams than usual (including some such as Texas
> and Penn State, which have long avoided I-AA competition) are
> scheduling them, and I-AA is, as you say, doing better than usual.
> In fact, the first two weeks of the season have seen more I-AA over
> I-A victories than all of last year did. Additionally, two of the
> victims, Colorado and Northwestern, were in bowl games a year ago,
> have been to multiple bowl games in recent years, and are conference
> champions within the decade. It is possible that these teams will,
> as they usually are, be competitive in their own leagues. That will
> not be reflected, but could make a big difference.
>
> For example, Ohio State after the win at Texas emerged as a
> frontrunner for the national title. The winner of this Saturday's
> contest between Auburn and LSU will do the same. OSU plays
> Northwestern. Auburn and LSU play Arkansas. Auburn/LSU will be
> punished for Arkansas' loss to USC, but Ohio State will not be
> punished for Northwestern's double digit loss to New Hampshire. Does
> that seem like an accurate system of ranking to you?
>
> I'm curious as to the possible solutions you've considered. One to
> consider would be to disregard wins over I-AA teams, but consider
> losses. That way, scheduling an automatic win and winning doesn't
> help you, but scheduling an automatic win and losing hurts you. I'm
> not sure if that would be feasible in your formula, however.
>
> Thanks again, and have an enjoyable football season.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Wesley N. Colley [mailto:colley@colleyrankings.com]
> Sent: Tuesday, September 12, 2006 10:22 AM
> To:
> Subject: Re: I-AA games
>
>
> Every year I get e-mails with this concern. Every year this concern
> evaporates.
> So far there has not been any demonstrable need to carry I-AA in my rankings.
>
> However, I-AA teams seem to be getting slightly better each year in
> the kinds of I-A teams they beat, so I'm keeping an eye on it. I have
> considered several possible solutions should the need arise.
>
> Quoting ":
>
>> Mr. Colley,
>>
>> I enjoy keeping track of your rating system for college football,
>> and believe yours is the most credible of the 6 BCS computer
>> rankings b/c it is the most transparent. However, I find it
>> interesting that you are not counting I-AA games at all. While I
>> know it's early, and don't figure that Indiana will be a competitor
>> for the BCS title game, you have a Big XII team and a Big 10 team
>> ranked #1 and #2. Both of those conferences have seen teams lose to
>> I-AA opponents. Is your formula not giving those teams, and the
>> other teams in those conferences, a free pass for losing?
>>
>> This is of particular interest as I know that normally distributed
>> conferences, like the Big XII, tend to do better that non-normally
>> distributed conferences, like the SEC, in your rankings and other
>> computer rankings, but if Colorado were to win the Big XII North -as
>> it has done for 4 of the past 5 years - won't that mean that a team
>> that was not good enough to beat a I-AA (or championship division
>> or whatever they're calling it), being good enough to rank highly
>> in the Big XII indicates that the Big XII is not a strong league?
>> Won't your rankings be misleading for not charging them with that
>> loss?

Kudos to Mr. Colley for being concerned with integrity of his rankings and understanding their impact on the college football world.

The SEC speaks, and vindicates Auburn

2006-09-18T14:03:00.000-05:00

As you've no doubt heard, there was some controversy surrounding a 4th down pass by LSU in the 4th quarter against Auburn. Auburn defensive back Zach Gilbert collided with LSU receiver Early Doucet, and was originally flagged for pass interference. The flag was waved off, however, b/c Auburn safety Eric Brock had tipped the ball. LSU coach Les Miles, and a horde of media idiots like Spencer Tillman from CBS, and Mark May from USCSPN, complained that the call should've stood b/c replay (not available for purposes of the call, BTW) indicated that Gilbert made ocntact with Doucet a nanosecond before the arrival of the ball. What the commentators, andMiles, failed to remind folk was that for pass interference to occur, the ball must be catchable. The ball was not, b/c of the tip. The SEC has corrected them:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/football/ncaa/09/18/bc.fbc.auburn.lsucalls.ap/index.html

Now THAT, ladies and gentleman, was a football game

2006-09-18T13:06:00.000-05:00

The Auburn-LSU game this weekend was an epic struggle that pitted two incredible football teams playing football the way it was meant to be played. I haven't seen hitting that hard in college since, well, probably since I started watching football. If Florida were a prisoner at Gitmo, being forced to play LSU and Auburn back to back would be considered a violation of the Geneva Convention.

How anyone can still rank SC ahead of Auburn is beyond me. LSU is the best team anyone has beaten.

GD stands for...

2006-09-11T20:49:00.000-05:00

god dammit.

Greg Davis was up to his old tricks again. Ignoring the strengths of the Texas offense, Davis instead made the following dubious play calls:

- On Texas' opening drive against tOSU, Texas ran the ball with impunity, driving down to the tOSU 7 yard line. Rather than lining up and pounding the ball in, he called a wide-receiver screen on 1st down, which went nowhere. On 2nd down, another wide-receiver screen, which Pittman fumbled on the 1, and tOSU recovered and returned to mid-field.

- On 3rd and 1, on the buckeye side of the field, rather than lining up and running up the gut to get a 1st down, Texas runs the ball out of the shotgun, and loses four yards and momentum. The good news is, in a similar situation later in the game, Texas lined up in goal-line and converted the 1st down. Maybe even GD can learn from his mistakes.

I may be a wistful old fogey, but in goal-line and short yardage situations, put in a fullback or an extra tightend, rely on your stout O-line, and get your yardage. Running out of the shotgun seems to work fine between the 20s, but once inside the red zone, the defense tightens up, and the horizontal running and passing game is ineffective.

tOSU played a great game, and I do not contend Texas would have won if they converted on the above scenarios, but their chances of winning would greatly improve. Its up to the coaches to put the players in position to win, and GD failed again. I have never been on the "fire Greg Davis" bandwagon, and it is hard to criticize a coaching staff that just won 20 games in a row, but if Texas gets inside an opponents ten yard line, and proceeds to line up in shotgun, I'll die a little inside.

Oh, and the zone read only works if you have a QB that is a threat to run.

That said, I still think Texas is the best team in the Big 12. But will the nightmares of RRS pasts come back to haunt GD and Texas on Oct. 7? We'll see.

Wes Colley: Losses for Big XII, Big Ten don't count

2006-09-11T16:40:00.000-05:00

The Colley Matrix, a mathematical ranking founded by UVA grad and math whiz Wes Colley, is one of the 6 computer polls that together form 1/3 of the BCS formula. www.colleymatrix.com

Currently, Mr. Colley has sitting atop his poll in the #1 and #2 slots . . . Oklahoma and Indiana. Ok, so it's early. Teams have played just two games, and we haven't yet achieved "full connectivity" - the magical point at which all times are connected in the "six degrees of Kevin Bacon" sense (e.g. Notre Dame played Penn State who played Akron who played . . . ). You may recall that at a similar time a year ago, New Mexico was ranked #1 in Colley's poll. No big deal right?

But looking a little deeper, we find that Colley's conference rankings show the Big East #1 (!!!), the Big 10 #1, and the Big XII #3. The SEC lags behind at #4. How can this be? Colorado of the Big XII and Northwestern of the Big Ten have lost recently, in convincing fashion, to I-AA squads. Well, folks, here's how that can be. From Colley's FAQ section:
"I ignore I-AA results." http://www.colleyrankings.com/faq.html Yes, that's right. Wes Colley's poll is ignoring these defeats, which means that certain teams - and the teams that play them - get a free pass for their embarrassing losses. Thus, the perverse result is that a Northwestern loss to Ohio State would be WORSE for their rankings than a loss to New Hampshire. More to the point, it means that in a BCS race, Auburn will penalized by playing Arkansas who lost to USC but Ohio State will not be penalized for a matchup with Northwestern for NW's loss to New Hampshire. That's nuts and it's unfair.

If you want to discourage these I-AA matchups, fine. If you want to not count the wins, fine - don't reward teams for scheduling wins that are supposed to be automatic. But when you schedule a win that's supposed to be automatic - and you lose - you should be punished.

Or better yet, scrap the whole comptuer poll nonsense.

The Ocho: Page Six

2006-09-08T12:49:00.000-05:00

In the spirit of another great sports blog, on the DL, http://www.itsasecretsohush.blogspot.com/ , it's time to dish some college football related scoop. First, Alabama has made headlines in a not so positive way for not suspending linebacker Juwan Simpson who was arrested for having marijuana and a gun in his possession. Now, the hot buzz in cyberspace and on talk radio is that Mr. Simson wasn't alone, and that the passenger in his automobile - whose involvement was allegedly covered up - was none other than the daughter of a prominent Tide booster. Speculation is that their last name is similar to that of a former New York mayor. Why does this matter? Well, there are now concerns about the propriety of the actions of said booster, including not only an alleged cover up, but also potential issues involving the representation of Mr. Simpson (reportedly pro bono). Stay tuned.

While we're talking college football, the state of AL, and lawyers, a certain Auburn trustee just happened to find as one of his co-trustees his bank's lawyer. Reportedly, the banker is on his way to being the lawyer's former client. What does this rift mean for AU athletics? Who knows, but you're sure to find out As the Ocho Turns.

2004: Could it happen again?

2006-09-05T11:50:00.000-05:00

My thinking on the 2004 situation with Auburn running the table and getting left out was that it was such a fluke it was unlikely to happen again. After all, the previous BCS "crises" had emerged from there being too few unbeatens. The '04 year yielded 5 at the end of the regular season, 3 from the BCS conferences. This had not happened in the modern era. But the way things are shaping up this year, it could.

Currently, we have 3 conferences that are very tough: the SEC, the ACC, and the Big Ten. The rest are not so tough, and independents (you know who I'm talking about) can manage their schedules very effectively. Thus, we have a situation where a handful of schools have a relatively easy ride to an unbeaten season. Further, the perverse biases of the national media FAVOR those that have an easy ride over those that actually must achieve something to go unbeaten.

If Texas beats Ohio State this weekend, in all likelihood, the 'Horns go unbeaten. Road trips to Lincoln and Lubbock are potential stumbling blocks, but Chizik has figured out the Leach gimmick (there's a reason he advised Tuberville to hire a WCO coach in Borges as opposed to a spread guy like Rob Spence or Shane Montgomery), and Nebraska doesn't have the horses to hang with Texas.

If USC and ND make it through September unbeaten, they are likely to be unbeaten when they play each other Thanksgiving weekend. One of them has to win.

Therefore, there's a good chance that USC and Texas are unbeaten again at the end of the season. What if Auburn or Tennessee from the SEC, Florida State or VT from the ACC, and/or WVU or Louisville from the Big East are as well? Throw in Iowa as a darkhorse to go unbeaten in the Big 10 as well.

We have the same scenario, with the same cause: huge resource disparities creating an easy path to conference domination by a handful of elite teams.

Perhaps I was wrong . . .

2006-09-03T07:22:00.000-05:00

I have been known for my opposition and sadness toward IA teams, especially IA powerhouses, playing IAA teams. Not just for the lack of gamemanship in such games, but that they represent one of the plagues of modern college football: bowing down to the almighty dollar. Well, this first weekend of college football 2006 has shown me something: perhaps I have been a little hasty in my opinions considering this.

For what must be a the first time since the rigid distinction between IA and IAA was made, 3, count them, 3 IA teams lost to their IAA opponents. The Richmond Spiders posted a 13-0 win over Duke, continuing the Blue Devils misery on the gridiron. Portland State overcame the Lobos of New Mexico 17-6, a result somewhat more surprising than a IAA teams posting a win over the woeful Blue Devils. But the biggest shocker of all - Colorado - Big 12 North champ last year, BCS conference member, losing to the Bobcats of Montana State 19-10. What a good start to the Dan Hawkins era!

Even more surprising, and disappointing for fans of certain teams, were the troubles that some teams had with the lower division teams they played. Maryland struggled with William and Mary, finally winning 27-14. NC State had similar problems against perennial IAA power, Appalachian State. (By the way, ACC, that's not a good way to establish yourself as a power conference). Kansas State managed a win against Illinois State, only because after a late TD, the Rebirds went for the 2 point conversion for the win, and didn't kick the point after for the tie to force overtime. Arizona State had all it could handle against Northern Arizona, until pulling away in the 4th quarter. The same could be said for South Florida in its opener against McNeese State. Or Purdue, against Indiana State.

Meanwhile, of course, some teams managed to completely dismantle their IA opponents, regardless of conference (Arkansas - at least you didn't give up 70 this time. That 36 point margin of victory, so much more acceptable). So, perhaps a rethinking of my position the IAA game is necessary. Clearly, for some teams, the better IAA teams are just as comparable as any IA team - Sun Belt, Duke, the bottom half of the Mac, I'm talking to you. Also clear, though, following last year's huge upset of Stanford by UC Davis (a newly risen IAA team) and the Colorado debacle this year, is that big time programs, in BCS conferences, can lose to IAA teams. That speaks of a far more even playing field than I could have imagined. I will state, however, that a bye week later in the season would've done these teams more good than these losses seem to have.

Other thoughts on the weekend so far -
1. The worst game in college football has in all likelihood been played already. The worst team in IA, Temple, was beaten by Buffalo, one of the Bottom 10, 9-3. In OT. Which resulted in Bulls fans rushing the field. A win against Temple, you rush the field? What a comment on how your team has been doing lately.

2. Coaching - there has been some really bad, bad, bad coaching decisions this opening weekend. While there's some adjustment to the new timing rules, and the first week bugs that need to get ironed out, there have just been some flat-out awful calls. Central Michigan, driving to tie up the game, calls a trick play that sends a QB and 4 receivers out to face 11 men, while the other 6 are lined up halfway across the field, resulting in a pick. Nevada, with little time left and down by 9 points to Fresno State, goes for it on fourth down with 20 seconds left, instead of taking the FG, and trying for the requisite onside kick for the win. GT burns time-outs early and punts late in the game, instead of going for it on the 45 yard line, not recognizing that ND will be able to run out the clock. Jeff Tedford once again making the wrong call between Longshore and Ayoob pre-season, which is shown in the openner against Tennessee. I know the new rule that the clock will start on a change of possession is a change, but come on, coaches - you do this for a living - you should adjust better than that, and it doesn't explain some of the bonehead calls.

3. The first game - I know you can't put much stock in the first game, but somethings I think I've learned:

a. unless GT's D was just that good, I'm now less worried about the Nittany Lions visit to South Bend next week. I think if Penn State can hold ND to 14 points, too, we win that game.

b. The Big 12 seems even more divided into haves and have nots this year. The haves, so far: Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech. The have nots: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma. Look for some lopsided scores in conference play, and Oklahoma boosters - Texas fans want you to keep cheating - it works so well for us.

c. Conference records vs. OOC opponents to date (I'll be keeping a running tally):
ACC 6-4 (with a loss and two very close wins coming to IAA teams, 4 IAA overall)
Big 12 10-1 (sole loss to IAA, 6 IAA opponents overall - taking over from the SEC this year)
Big East 6-1 (3 IAA opponents)
Big Ten 11-0 (4 IAA opponents - keeping with the Joneses, are we, Big 10?)
C-USA 3-5 (Only 2AA opponents - good for you, C-USA!)
Independents 2-2 (No IAA yet, but with Army and Temple, that chance to win a game guarantees some IAA action in the future)
MAC 2-8 (1 IAA, and kudos to CMU and Toledo for almost making the upsets)
MWC 4-3 (3 IAA, and a loss to one of them - way to go, New Mexico!)
Pac 10 6-2 (2 IAA, and one loss - that bye week looks better and better, doesn't it?)
SEC 6-2 (and wait for it - only a single IAA game - on top of that, let's look at opening week conference opponents - 3 Pac 10, 1 Big 10, 1 C-USA, 1 WAC, 1 Sun Belt - good going, SEC, for showing that you CAN win when you play quality opponents. Well, except for Vandy and Arkansas, anyway)
Sun Belt 3-3 (2 IAA so far, and 2 wins against IAA. Well, 3, if you count Army)
WAC 2-6 (With both victories coming against the 2 IAA opponents - trying to compete with the Sun Belt, are we?)

So there you have it - the only undefeated in non-conference play to date is the Big 10, with their slate of MAC teams, WAC teams, IAA teams, and Vandy. Next best is the Big 12, with a similar slate, plus some Sun Belt action. The SEC is our #3, and, with the best OOC SOS to date, needs to be given the trophy for the week, for actually playing teams that just might be able to beat you. Well done, SEC, and we'll see what happens through the rest of the weekend.

Auburn vs. The World

2006-08-31T08:40:00.000-05:00

In 2006, in order to reach the Promised Land of Glendale, AZ, Auburn must battle 13 opponents (and the biased national media, of course). To aide Auburn on its quest for college football's holy grail this year, howeve,r, Auburn has added Will Muschamp, football's top defensive mind. Muschamp understands zone blitzes - and the fact that in Latin, Jehovah starts with an I.

Auburn vs. The Spread

College football's most trendy offense is appropriately named, b/c it is spreading through Division I-A (and I-AA with App State using it) like HIV, and ESPN is its bathhouse. It leads to lots of highlights in other conferences, but not a lot of points in the SEC. This year, Auburn will face as many as 3 teams that feature the spread as its base offensive alignment for the first time in modern history, and the first time probably ever.

The spread is a formation featuring 3-4 WRs, usually one back, and usually with the QB in the Shotgun. Auburn's opponents running the spread, or a version of it, will be Washington State, Florida, and probably Arkansas.

The theory behind the spread is to live up to its name by spreading out the defense. The positioning of the WRs causes the defense to expand itself, thereby creating wider running and passing lines. Additionally, so the theory goes, the defense will have to basically "declare" what it's going to do, b/c as the WRs come set, they will have to be accounted for by defenders. Many WRs increases the likelihood of man coverage, and the wider gaps give the WRs more room in space to work with, and make the defenders cover larger areas. All of this helps the running game by creating naturally occurring seams and gaps for the RBs to do their thing.

Like communism, this stuff sounds great in theory, but collapses in the face of a strong defense. The strategic defense initiative for bringing down the evil empire of the spread is to 1) be able to man cover multiple receivers and tackle in space, 2) have speed on defense to be able to close the widened gaps in a hurry, and 3) disguise coverages to "trick" the QB into making bad decisions. Auburn should be able to do all 3 this year.

Wilhite and Irons provide the best tandem of CBs in the nation. Aairon Savage is a natural corner who provides solid coverage skills, though he will likely be inconsistent early. As noted earlier, two of the starting LBs, Herring and Dede, are DB converts, and so they'll have better coverage skills than your average LB. Auburn has put together the most physical August practices since the Dye era, and that will translate

The speed on defense is there in droves. Tuberville is of the old school Miami way of thinking in which you recruit speed, speed, and more speed and sacrfiice size if you have to. Defenses that are able to recognize the play and move laterally can cause the theoretical "natural seams" to close. This is particularly important vs. Florida and Urban Meyer's spread option attack. We saw what happened to Meyer vs. Alabama's fast LB corps a year ago.

Disguising coverages is particularly effective vs. the spread b/c the spread relies on quick decision making by the QB (which is one of the fundamental flaws of the spread in that it 1) leads to mistakes, and 2) leads to dependency on short and horizontal passes, so in essence it "spreads" the field horizontally, but tends to shrink it vertically). Texas fans have seen this in action. Recall the play against Texas Tech in '04 in which Texas ran a zone blitz, and Tech QB Sonny Cumbie threw the ball directly into the hands of Texas DE Aurmon Satchell.

Why did he make that throw? Because Satchell wasn't supposed to be there, accoring to Cumbie's read. What a zone blitz does is bring at least one non-lineman (often a DB) to rush, while a DE drops back into coverage. The more complicated zone blitzes will involve a great deal of shifting among the defenders. What this does is cause the QB to misdiagnose the play. Usually, when a LB or a DB blitzes, he leaves the space or man he would normally cover unaccounted for. It is thus the job of the QB to find that space and deliver the ball there. In a zone blitz, howev er, the rotation of the defenders fills that space. So, the zone that was to be unaccounted for by the blitzing Texas defender was filled by the DE Satchell. Cumbie couldn't figure that out, b/c in the spread, he had only 2.5 seconds from snap to release to make the appropriate sight adjustment. He could not, and Tech paid the consequences. The quick decision making process makes pre-snap reads all the more important, so being able to ensure rhat the presnap alignment of the defense is misleading is incredibly advantageous in defending the spread.

To counter this, some spread offenses (think Texas last year) will run a no huddle offense. New Arkansas OC Gus Malzahn wrote the book on the hurry up, ho huddle offense (literally; the book is available on Amazon. It is not as good as Al Borges' book, also available on Amazon, about coaching the West Coast QB). What the no huddle does is diminish the time and opportunity for the defense to make its adjustments and disguise its coverage. Wazzu will likely do this as well, as they've had 9 months to prepare. This will be a challenge for Auburn, and will likely lead to some big plays since it will be the first game in Muschamp's system.

Ultimately, however, we can look to history. Against the 4 Big 6 SEC defenses Florida faced last year, the Urban Myth averaged a whopping 12.5 ppg. Elite SEC defenses can handle the spread, and Auburn will do just that.

Auburn vs. its rivals

Florida has been covered. Auburn is fortunate to have Georgia and LSU visiting the Plains this year, and Alabama at Jordan Hare West in Tuscaloosa (Auburn has never lost to the Tide in T'town). LSU will present a big early season test, regardless of venue. The two sets of Tigers have played each other dead even in each of the last two seasons, and had both road teams not suffered kicking meltdowns, the outcome could've been different in each case. LSU is the most talented team on Auburn's schedule, featuring a boatload of talented WRs and RBs, a stout defense, and a big, well coached offensive line. LSU has question marks at QB , where JaMarcus Russell is incredibly talented, but has been inconsistent. Matt FLynn replaced an injured Russell in the bowl game, and was spectacular. And then there's much ballyhooed phenom Ryan Perilloux, another name that the Texas fans that read the Ocho will remember.

Auburn's run stuffing ability should be top notch, which will force the QB to beat them. And, while the WRs are big, they've been inconsistent at catching the ball. Auburn's CBs will be good enough to force the QB to make perfect throws to make the big plays, and I don't think any of them can do that. Fisher coached in the past with Terry Bowden and Rick Trickett, so he may try to run some spread formations, particularly depending on what kind of success Wazzu has it. Refer to the above about the likelihood of success.

Where Auburn will win the game is that Al Borges' offense will outplay Bo Pellini's LSU defense by a significant margin. Last year, AU ran wild on LSU, with Kenny Irons putting up a 200 yard effort. Auburn was unable to seal the deal, leading to 6 field goal attempts, 5 of which were missed. This year, Irons has had more time as the starter (it was his first game winning back the job last year), and has had more time to gel with the line. Combine that with a supportive home crowd, and AU should do better at finishing off drives vs. the Bayou Bengals. Pellini's pass defense has also been suspect in each of the last two years (recall what Matt Leinart did to OU in '04, and what Sam Keller did to LSU a year ago), so Brandon Cox should look to have a big day. Alternatively, since Les Miles coaches LSU, Auburn could don its orange jerseys and spot LSU a 20+ point lead (people who watched the Texas -OSU game in '04 or LSU-Tenn in '05 will know where that one is coming from).

Georgia must travel to the Plains late in the season. In a year in which the SEC can legitimately claim to have 8 of the nation's elite RBs, 3 of them play for Georgia. Kregg Lumpkin, Danny Ware, and Thomas Brown could form one of the more potent rushing attacks in the country. Unfortunately for Bulldog fans, their coach is Mark Richt,a nd so he won't let them. He is still yet to heed Tommy Tuberville's advice from '01 that he needs to learn to run the ball effectively. The Dawgs are breaking in a new QB, and will start the year with 5th year Joe Tereshinki III under center. That won't last, Likely, by the time the Auburn game comes around, the Bulldogs will be starting Matt Stafford, the super talent from Highland Park, Texas. Stafford has a cannon, but is too fat to be mobile and is a freshman. As much as Richt relies on the QB, and relies on the pass to set up the run, Stafford will be relied upon to win this game. True freshman QBs will not beat a Will Muschamp defense.

Alabama's offense continues to get worse in each successive year of the Mike Shula era. Without Prothro (he'll be lucky to walk normally again after the disaster that was his surgery) and Croyle, the trend should continue. The offensive line was abysmal a year ago, and is fundamentally unsound (they block flat footed, which means ultimately, they end up on their heels, rather than on the balls of their feet). While I'm not ready to predict a replay of last year's 11 sack masterpiece, not even stud RB Ken Darby will be able to produce under the circumstances he's in, at least against the elite defenses.

Joe Kines has been brilliant as Alabama's DC in each of the last two years, fielding a top two unit both times. Kines is the only reason Shula still has a job in Tuscaloosa (and Kines was a Mike Price hire!). However, the Tide was thin last year, as evidenced by its inability to handle two top flight teams in a row late in the season (they were spent after LSU, and couldn't match it in week 11 vs. Auburn). They lose 7 starters off that defense, and though Kines will have this unit playing respectably, you don't lose names like Anderson, Ryans, Roach, Peprah, etc. and simply reload, at least not with Alabama having to depend on some probation thinned classes from a few years ago. Auburn will get the Tide's best effort, and Alabama will likely make things interesting for a half, but eventually, superior talent, depth, and coaching (at least Muschamp vs. Shula) will win out.

Auburn vs. the other teams

Aside from the spread teams and the rivals, the only troubling game for Auburn is the Thursday night road trip to face Steve Spurrier and the S. Carolina Gamecocks. Auburn humiliated Spurrier a year ago in Auburn, winning 48-7. It was the second worst loss for Spurrier in his collegiate coaching career, and only Tommy Tuberville's friendship - and the gift TD it created in the closing minutes - saved the ball coach from a shutout. This year, the Gocks will be stronger at the offensive skill positions, as its RB situation came together late in the year, plus the addition of Boyd will make them stronger. The WRs should be stronger as well, and Blake Mitchell, who didn't play vs. Auburn, has another year in the offensive system. S. Car must replace three starting OLs, but those losses are offset by the fact the new ones now have two years in Spurrier's zone blocking, pass protection type schemes, while last year's crew had to immediately switch to that from a power oriented, run blocking scheme of Granny Clampett (aka Lou Holtz).

While the offense will be improved, Tuberville has solved Spurrier. The 2001 Florida offense was the second best Spurrier ever had, and it was held to 20 points by Auburn, despite the fact that the battered AU D was a ragtag unit of young players replacing a bunch of injured starters. In some ways, defending Spurrier is like defending the spread teams, except his offense is more fundamentally sound in that it's better at creating its own running lanes and better at stretching the defense vertically. Still, look for Muschamp's aggressive defense to force multiple turnovers, and put the Gamecock D on its heels. The defense will be no better than average by SEC standards, and AU should have no trouble with it. Plus, Kenny Itons, a S. Car transfer, will have something to prove when he goes back to his old stomping ground. He will stomp all over S. Carolina, and so will Auburn.

So, my prediction is 13-0 and an appearance in the nameless NC Game.

Breaking down Auburn

2006-08-29T21:08:00.000-05:00

In the spirit of JamalRunGood's post below, I'm going to break down another preseason pick to compete for conference and national titles: the Auburn Tigers (not the Auburn War Eagles, BTW).

Defense

All analysis of a championship contender begins on the defensive side of the football. As Patrick Fain Dye famously said, "Auburn football is running the ball, playing defense, and knocking the hell out of folks." This team certainly has the ability to do all of those things. Moving from the ball and working out and back:

Tackles: DT is a legit question mark for Auburn, and though that sounds cataclysmic (not to people that work at ESPN, b/c they only watch offensive skill players, but to people that know about football), it doesn't yet rise to the level of serious concern. Auburn must replace long time veterans TJ Jackson at Noseguard (the position that lines up opposite the Center) and Wayne Dickens at the other tackle spot. However, D-line coach Don Dunn likes to work from a rotation of ideally 8 players. This year he probably has more like 6 that are ready to go in SEC play, but he ought to be able to replace the first unit without much of a dropoff, just like last year when Auburn replaced Jay Ratliff at tackle.

Josh Thompson will replace Jackson as the #1 NG, and Thompson has long been a fan favorite (as was Jackson) b/c he is, in the weightroom, the strongest Auburn Tiger. Backing him is likely to be Jackson's former Opelika High School teammate Tez Doolittle. Doolittle has been a bit of a headcase in his time on the Plains, but as Tommy Tuberville said some time ago, "If he ever realizes what God gave him, he'll be a millionaire." He has apparently had such a divine revelation and appears ready to be a major player in the rotation. A similar ubertalent, Pat Sims, has finally had the light bulb come on as well and has become the frontrunner to take over the #1 spot at the other tackle spot, though he's battling young sensation Sen'Derrick Marks. The bottom line is this is a talented unit on the interior, and Dunn has a track record of producing quality players and having smooth transitions.

At End, the Tigers are loaded again. Though Stanley McClover, probably foolishly, opted for the NFL early, Quentin Groves returns to start at Weak Defensive End (weak refers to the side of the field with fewer blockers; not to Groves' phyiscal strength) while Marquies Gunn returns on the Strong Side. After briefly flirting with a move to the interior line, Christopher Browder returned to end. He can probably be the top back up at either end position, and often was the most consistent DE last year. Groves needs to work on his recognition and discipline against the run, but this unit looks to be a strength, looking to build upon the 11 sack performance against Alabama a year ago.

Linebacker: The losses again appear to be heavy for the Tigers, as Travis and Antarrious Williams are gone. However, Karibi Dede, a secondary convert, will be the starter at the Mike (Middle) Linebacker position. Dede has found a home in the LB corps, and made one of the plays of the year for Auburn, returning a Brannan Southerland fumble for a TD against Georgia last year in Auburn's 1 point victory. Will Herring, another secondary convert, will move to the Sam, or Strong, linebacker position. An excellent safety against the run, with great athletic ability and size (6'3" 225, 4.54 40, 38" vertical, fromer running QB in HS), Herring is a natural fit at this position. The move has been speculated for years, as Herring seemed a bit out of his element at safety, but showed the skills of an OLB. NFL scouts have already remarked that he has potentioal at the next level at this position, and Herring was named pre-season All SEC. On the Will, or Weak Side Linbacker position, Auburn will start Merrill Johnson, a practice superstar, who has been resasonably impressive in limited real time action. He appears ready to step into the limelight. Auburn's unit will, as Tuberville LBs usually do, rely on its speed to make up for its lack of zize (Dede is about 215; Johnson 200). This unit is thin for now, as Steve Gandy (another secondary convert) is injured, and Kevin Sears and Tray Blackmon (the #1 LB prospect in 2005) serve indefinite suspensions for alcohol related arrests. Another loss was Coach Joe Whitt, who moved into administration after a 25 year career that saw Coach Whitt help Auburn to 5 SEC Championships, 2 undefeated seasons, 2 separate 4 game win streaks over Alabama, and put many people in the NFL at LB, including Takeo Spikes of the Buffalo Bills, and James Willis - a former Green Bay Packers LB, who will replace Whitt this fall as LB coach.

Secondary: Auburn's starting corners, David Irons and Jonathan Wilhite, will be the top unit in the country. Both are legit lockdown corners with exceptional speed, quickenss, and coverage skills. Safety will be a question mark, as there will be no one returning who has been a consistent starter. One safety spot will go to Aairon Savage, a super talent who has dazzled at practice more than any other young Tiger. Savage is a corner by trade, but is so good, the coaches want him on the field. If he develops as he should, he could be a de facto third corner who can be a tremendous asset in man coverage against the teams that will test Auburn via the pass (more on that later). The other safety spot is up for grabs, though it's likely to eventually, by season's end, be won by Tristan Davis, the fastest Tiger (who has multiple 70 plus yard TD runs in some brief stints at RB). The ability of the corners to play man coverage will allow freedom for the coaches to do a lot of different things with the defense, which is the trademark of . . .

Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp: Muschamp is the 5th defensive coordinator to serve under Tommy Tuberville in his tenure as a head coach, the 4th at Auburn. Tuberville, a former DC at Miami and Texas A&M, is notoriously demanding of his DCs, firing John Lovett a year after Lovett led the SEC in total defense, and contributing to David Gibbs' leaving after last year's unit finished an "unacceptable" 19th in the nation. While even Tuberville castoffs tend to land on their feet (Lovett went to Clemson; Gibbs to the Kansas City Chiefs), and the successful go on to other things (Gene Chizik followed up his undefeated, Broyles Award winning year at Auburn with an undefeated, NC season at Texas), Muschamp is the cream of the crop. Muschamp was the defensive coordinator of LSU's 2003 NC team, and ihe Crown Prince of the Parcells-Bellichick-Saban coaching dynasty that has dominated pro football for two decades, and now has begun to dominate college football as well. Muschamp is privately regarded by Saban, Mark Richt, and others as the top defensive mind in football, and is best known for his zone blitzing scheme. His zone blitzes, ability to disguise coverage, and ability to utilize multiple looks and players in multiple positions (more later) will be effective, especially against the rash of spread offenses AU is likely to face this year (Again, more later). The zone blitz, of which Muschamp is one of the top designers, is what no less of an authority than Homer Smith calls, "the problem that has not been solved" by offenses.

Offense:

Offensive Line: The interior of the line is no doubt solid with returning starters Joe Cope at Center, and Ben Grubbs and Tim Duckworth at Guard (the position that lines up immediately on either side of the Center). Grubbs and Duckworth both project as NFL prospects. The tackles will both be new as regulat starters, but both new LT King Dunlap and RT Jonathan Palmer have seen significant playing time. Palmer has seen a good bit as a backup at multiple positions and part time starter, and while LT is typically a more important position, Brandon Cox is a left handed QB, so the RT will be the one responsible for protecting his blind side. The line will likely be spotty early, b/c Auburn will employ a slide protection heavy zone blocking scheme (meaning that the linemen will have assigned areas, or "zones" to block as opposed to having a particular individual to block). This requires a lot more chemistry and "gelling" among linemen to make sure that they adequately cover all the appropriate areas. AU usually begins to dominate as a line around week 4 or 5, so early contests against Washington State and LSU may test the line.

Quarterback: Brandon Cox, a top 10 prospect from 2002, returns for his second year as Auburn's starter. Cox was abysmal in his first and last starts of last year, but outstanding in between. He's a deadly accurate passer, and, though somewhat slight physically (at least by the standards of his predecessor Jason Campbell), Cox is tough as nails, as demonstrated by his amazing 4th and 11 conversion to Devin Aromashadu to set up the winning FG against Georgia a year ago. Cox completed 58% of his passes a year ago with a 15-8 TD/int ratio (4 of those INTs coming in his first ever start vs. GT), and should build on those #s this year.

Runningback: This is a team coached by Tommy Tuberville and Eddie Gran. Enough said. If you want more, consider theit track record. Tommy Tuberville and Eddie Gran at Ole Miss put together John Avery (1st rounder), Deuce McCallister (1st rounder and OM career rushing leader), and threw in Joe Gunn (4th all time in OM rushing) for good measure. At Auburn, they have already produced Rudi Johnson (pro Bowler for the Cincinatti Bengals), Carnell Williams (1st rounder) and Ronnie Brown (1st rounder). This year, the RBs will be led by Kenny Irons, who led the SEC in rushing with 1,293 yards, despite not emergine as the starter until midway through the season, and getting just 1 carry vs. Georgia Tech (ah, what might have been!). Irons is an explosive runner who, while not quite as talented as either Brown or Williams, features a little of both: the shiftiness of Williams, and the power of Brown. Behind him, Auburn has Brad Lester (a Carnell Williams style runner who, in high school, videotaped all Auburn games, and watched Cadillac's runs in slow motion so he could mimic his style), Tre Smith (star of the 2002 Iron Bowl), Carl Stewart (Mr. Football in Tennesee in 2003), Benjamin Tate (one of America's top HS RB prospects a year ago, and an early HS grad), and Mario Fannin (compared by some to Reggie Bush). This unit will be fine, and running behind AU's solid line will open things up for Cox and Auburn's young . . .

Wide Receivers: There's bad news and good news for Auburn fans concerning the WRs. The bad news is most of the big names from the past few years are gone. The good news is that these new names will be much easier to pronounce. Gone are Obomanu and Aromashodu; replacing them are Guess, Dunn, Billings, Hawthorne, Zachery, and Smith. Courtney Taylor, who's made the play of the year for Auburn in each of the last two years, is back to lead the unit, and as a potential first rounder has the ability to "be the man." JUCO transfer Prechae Rodriguez saw some playing time last year, and was moderately impressive, though his fumble in the first half of the Iron Bowl kept that game from being the true massacre it deserved to be. This unit will struggle early, but there is plenty of talent and speed, and they will be helped out by a strong unit of . . .

Tight Ends: Cole Bennett returns for his senior year. Bennett is a solid blocker, and an underrated receiver who will have to step up to lead the Tigers this year. Fans may recall his amazing TD reception vs. Tennessee in 2003 on the bootleg from Campbell. There will need to be more of that this year. Redshirt Freshmen Tommy Trott and and Gabe McKenzie will battle for playing time behind Bennett (and with him,as Auburn will run lots of 2 TE sets in both running and passing situations). Trott wowed the AU crowd at the Spring game with his hands and ability to run after the catch. McKenzie has been a better blocker in practice, but has improved as a reciever, and is a tremendous athlete. The Tight Ends will be used effectively as blockers, receivers, and decoys, and be very useful.

Offensive Coordinator Al Borges: Borges has re-emerged as one of college football's premiere offensive coordinators. Borges has led the SEC in offense in each of the past two seasons, despite not having worked with the QB or the backfield in consecutive years either time. This time, he has his QB and RBs returning. Borges has gotten amazing production out of Qbs such as Tony Graziani at Oregon, Cade McNown at UCLA, and Jason Campbell at Auburn. His second year with Cox should produce similar results. Borges' shredding of Alabama's defense a year ago - the top unit in the nation - was a foreshadowing of the shock and awe he will rain down on AU's opponents this year.

Special Teams: This unit provides serious concerns. Punter Kody Bliss in his senior season ought to be All SEC, and perhaps all America, quality. PK John Vaughn has been inconsistent at best as a FG kicker, most notoriously missing 5 FGs in Auburn's overtime loss vs. LSU a year ago. Matt Clark, the kickoff specialist, has been inconsistent as well, and there is no clear frontrunner at the return game. The SEC is a defense first conference, so the ability to play the field position game will be crucial. Additionally, Jim Tressel likes to say that, "The most important play in football is the punt," and is a master at flipping the field, so AU will need to find answers on special teams to beat Tressel's team on January 8 in Glendale, Arizona.

More on AU's matchups and how the season will play out in the coming days.

Breaking down Texas

2006-08-26T17:02:00.000-05:00

Well, as promised, here is my evaluation of the Texas Longhorns and the upcoming season.

Just like last year, I'll start with the strength of the team, the defense. The defensive line looks to be improved this year. Tim Crowder and Brian Robison return at the DE position for the third year in a row. This position was thin last season after the loss of Michael Williams to academics. This year Brian Orakpo and Chris Brown will fit in the rotation, while true freshman Lamar Houston may get some playing time.

The interior will feature Frank Okam, who NFL scouts are already drooling over. Derek Lokey will finally get the chance to start. Despite the loss of Rod Wright and Larry Dibbles, the DL should also improve this year. Okam had replaced Dibbles as starter last year, and despite his talent, Wright had a habit of taking plays off during the game. Roy Miller will press Lokey for playing time, and Tulley Janzen fills out the rotation. Freshman Ben Alexander may also get some PT.

The linebacking core was the weakness in the defense last year, but figures to be better this year. Rashad Bobino will move to MLB, which is his natural position. Robert Killebrew starts at SLB, but will need to cut down on the late hits. Drew Kelson is a speed guy, as he is a converted safety. Kelson will play the weak-side. Rod Muckelroy can spell Bobino in the middle. Sergio Kindle is being hailed as the next great Texas linebacker, and will be hard to keep off the field.

The secondary is good, but relatively thin. Michael Griffin gives Texas a chance to have back-to-back Thorpe award winners. Griffin made that great interception in the end zone during the Rose Bowl. Michael will be joined at the other safety spot by his twin brother, Marcus. Tarrell Brown and Aaron Ross spilt time at corner last year, but will need to start at both positions and will have to contribute. After that, the secondary gets iffy. Eric Jackson and Ryan Palmer can fill in when needed. But the secondary cannot afford an injury to any of the starters.

On offense, the real question mark is, of course, QB. Has VY returned for another season, Texas would be a hands down preseason #1. And that perhaps is the good news. That means a lot of pieces are in place on the offense, and the young QBs will just need to be serviceable, rather than god-like. But that means this team cannot afford to get down by 28 points to Oklahoma St., or any team for that matter. Gone are the days VY can bail the team out on 4th and 18. Gone are the days when the pocket collapses and VY wiggles his way out for a 20 yards gain. After attending the scrimmage last week, it seems clear Colt McCoy is the better QB right now, and he should be the starter. Jevan Sneed is the better athlete, but just doesn't look as comfortable running the offense. Another freshman, Sherrod Harris is third-string QB. The good news is, McCoy and Sneed have an arm and can make certain passes.

The better news is, Texas should dominate the line in every game they play this year. The O-line is going to be great again this year. Justin Blalock returns and may be the best O-lineman in the country. Kasey Studdard and Center Lyle Sendlein also return. Tony Hills, Jr. is a converted tight end that played a lot of minutes last year, and will be a starter this year. Adam Ulatoski and Cedric Dockery will step up into the other O-line positions. Texas also has some talented recruits coming in. Buck Burnette and J'marcus Webb are the best of the incoming fish, but hopefully will not need to be called upon to contribute.

Texas also has a deep stable of running backs, which is good considering they may be injury prone. Whereas Adrian Peterson will be called upon to run the ball 30 to 35 times a game, Selvin Young, Jamaal Charles, Henry Melton will split carries. Charles has been receiving some early Heisman buzz, but he is still a year away. Freshman Vondrell McGee is a speedster. Fullback, when used, will be spilt between Marcus Meyers and Chris Ogbonnaya. Although Ogbonnaya will probably be in a running back during garbage time. The running backs will need to take up the slack for the 1,000 yards VY gained on the ground last year.

Even better news is, Texas is solid at WR. Limas Sweed, Billy Pittman, and Quan Cosby can all stretch the field. The reserves are good too. Jordan Shipley was the most prolific WR in Texas high school history, but has been saddled with injuries the last two seasons. Nate Jones is a former starter, and Myron Hardy has been performing well in practice. Provided the QBs can get the ball to them, the receiving core should be take care of the rest. I hope to see a lot of defenses stack the box, b/c I like our odds with Sweed and Pittman in one-on-one coverage.

David Thomas will be impossible to replace, but Neale Tweedie brings the experience of a senior to the tight end position. Peter Ullman played some minutes last year. And Britt Mitchell and Greg Smith were highly recruited last year. Most folks are excited about Jermichael Finley. He needs to improve his blocking, but is a great receiver. Finley will be able to beat most LBs down the field. Tweedie and Finley will both play significant minutes and will be important safety valves for the young QBs.

On special teams, Aaron Ross will return punts again this year after a fine season of return duty last year. Tarrell Brown and Quan Cosby will be the kick returners. Greg Johnson will punt and probably handle kick-offs. The Vandy transfer has been inconsistent at times and will need to improve. Trevor Gerland will compete for place kicker, but a lot of folks are excited about Hunter Lawrence. Mack Brown thought enough of him to offer a scholarship. Lawrence also runs track, and could figure into some fake kicks. Kicking will be very important this year, as games against tOSU and Oklahoma may come down to a FG.

Texas schedule isn't as easy as last year. Admittedly, the Big 12 is not a conference full of monsters. However, I feel the North division has improved. Texas benefits from playing the Buckeyes at home, and early in the season. Oklahoma is a neutral site game. That leaves trips to Lubbock and Lincoln in consecutive weeks as Texas' road challenges.

The Ohio St. game will be difficult. The Texas D will have to shut down Troy Smith. The defense performed well last year in Columbus. But Texas probably benefited from Tressel's juggling of the QB in last year's game. Texas will lose a shoot-out to Ohio St. Texas will need to establish the ground game and keep the Buckeye offense off the field.

The Oklahoma game is a toss-up. Okies would have you believe Bomar's dismissal was a good thing. Don't buy it. The loss of Quinn may have been more significant. Many view Oklahoma's O-line as the team's weakness. Peterson will carry the load, and may take a lot of punishment. Peterson only rushed three times for ten yards in last year's shootout (that's right, it is the Red River Shootout, you PC pussies - sorry). We'll know a lot about both of these teams by the time Oct. 7 rolls around. OU makes a trip to Autzen early in the season for a rematch of the Holiday Bowl. They also have UAB and Washington at home. Texas and OU may meet for the first time in a while with both teams having a blemish on their record.

Trips to Lubbock have been an adventure of late for Texas. The drunken lawyer is a master of offense, and wacky o-line arrangements. Tech replaces their QB - big deal. The real chore will be replacing Taurean Henderson at RB. Tech will be good, but not great. Provided the QB doesn't fall flat on his face, Texas should win this one. Nebraska may be improved, but Texas should out-talent the Cornhuskers in a potential Big 12 championship game match-up.

Best case scenario, obviously 12-0, and playing in the Fiesta. But can Texas do it? Yes, but will need mistake-free play from the QB position, and the defense will need to hold every opponent to less than 21. Worst case, probably 8-4. But then again, I thought worse case last year was 8-3. So we'll see. The OSU game will go a long way to setting the tone for this season. The players seem motivated, they are tired of hearing last year was all Vince. The other 23 players on the field want to prove they have what it takes to compete for that crystal football.

Why NPR Doesn't Cover College Football

2006-08-24T21:05:00.000-05:00

Today, on National Public Radio's afternoon news show All Things Considered, they once again revisited the "directed study" at Auburn, and interviewed the "whistle-blower". Couple of things pop into my head when hearing this story (keep in mind that, unlike Jimbo, I'm not a rabid Auburn fan, but a very mild one, and more interested in truth and fairness).

1. This is so old news - the only thing that possibly makes this relevant is it being 7 days til the season starts again.

2. While they mentioned that Auburn was under academic probation, not NCAA probation, and that this situation of easy grades for little work falls squarely under some of the things that could possibly cost Auburn its academic standing, they give the last word to the sociology professor who first made a stink.

3. What NPR totally missed, and shame on them, as I used to consider them the most unbiased news source, is that our hero, the whistle-blower, was passed over for a promotion, and blew the whistle on the guy who got it. This guy isn't even really out to get Auburn - he just wants to get the guy who got his job, and is willing to take the Plainsmen down with him, and is willing to say it's a football problem.

So shame on you NPR, for not telling the whole, and for telling an old story that has already been resolved without an NCAA investigation.

Texas' national title was fraudulent

2006-08-22T14:46:00.000-05:00

The biased media were at it again. Caught up in the glitz and glamor of Sixth Street, the Princeton Review named Texas the nation's #1 party school.

http://www.topix.net/content/ap/0770069709150176614907454465610632582187

Having lived among undergrads most of my time in Austin, and all of my time at Auburn, I once again give the edge to the rough and tumble Southeastern partiers over the effete, spread party offense crazy Big XIIers. Plus, the defense (cops) is tougher in SEC country.

I will give the Longhorn students credit for one thing: their tequila tolerance is unmatched in any conference I've seen.

my picks for the season

2006-08-21T21:23:00.000-05:00

i need to hurry and get these done. the following are my picks in the bcs conferences, and then my picks for the bcs bowls and nat'l championship game. i will pick a division winner, the runner up will be the second place team, but not necessarily the loser of the conference championship game, and then i'll pick a dark-horse.

big 12

1st place: Texas (thanks rhett)
2nd place: Oklahoma
dark horse: Texas Tech (if Tech had their schedule from last year, i might be inclined to pick them for 1st.)

big 10:

1st place: Ohio State
2nd place: Iowa
dark horse: Penn St. (fortunately, the ND game is not a conference game. and Penn St. is DUE against Michigan)

big least:

1st place: West Va.
2nd place: Louisville
dark horse: there is no dark horse

acc:

1st: Florida St.
2nd: Miami
dark horse: Clemson

sec:

1st: Florida
2nd: Auburn (sorry, jimbo)
dark horse: LSU (ridiculous schedule)

pac 10:

1st: USC
2nd: Cal.
dark horse: Oregan (again, sorry jimbo, i can't jump on the Wazzu bandwagon)

National Championship game: Texas vs. W. Va. (i hate this. i'm picking Texas with my heart, and W. Va. b/c i have to.)

Rose: Ohio St. vs. USC

Orange: Florida St. vs. Notre Dame (ND could lose three games and still end up in the BCS.)

Sugar: Iowa vs. Florida

Fiesta: California v. LSU (Auburn's loss in the SEC championship game knocks them out of BCS. Cal finally gets its chance to be embarrassed in a BCS bowl.)

there you go. saved for posterity. tear it apart boys.

Seventeen Days in August

2006-08-14T23:40:00.000-05:00

In seventeen oh so short days, college football kicks off (and Jimbo gets another year older) with UTEP at San Diego State, BC at Central Michigan, Northwestern at Miami of Ohio, and So. Carolina at Miss. State. Not a bad opening slate, and that means it's time for a brief analysis of these games. That, and, as each day creeps closer and closer, I'll be following Venu's lead, and giving my conference previews, followed by my preseason top 25 (look for changes from the pre-pre season top 8).

So, a quick glance at the first four games of 2006 -

1. UTEP at San Diego State - Ah, poor Aztecs, trying so hard. This one should be a no-brainer, with Mike Price having revved up Miner football, and UTEP having been bowl bound, and Palmer the Younger (aka Jordan Palmer) still running things in the huddle. Chuck Long is looking to make a statement in his first game, but let's be serious - UTEP has the potential to upset Texas Tech when they come to the Sun Bowl. This game goes to the Miners, and El Paso will continue to love Mike Price.
My pick: UTEP

2. BC at Central Michigan - Another no brainer. While Central Michigan has been making some improvements within the MAC, even breaking the .500 mark last year, they're not ready to compete with Tom O'Brien's soaring Eagles. The talent isn't there for the Chippewas, and this home opener will be a loss. Meanwhile, the Eagles will cruise, unless they're looking forward to the ACC opener against Clemson the next week.
My pick: BC

3. Northwestern at Miami (OH) - Okay, this is a tough one. Randy Walker's untimely death may effect this game, and all of the Wildcats' season this year, far more than one might hope. The Redhawks are trying to figure out their QB situation, but have been among the best of the MAC for the past few years. With the pall hanging over Evanston, and the game being in Oxford, I've got to call this a toss-up. If the Wildcats don't walk away with a win, expect a dismal year for Northwestern.
My pick: Toss up

4. South Carolina at Mississippi State - The Ole Ball Coach travels to Starkville. And how stark does it look for the Bulldogs. Miss. State has just been downright awful of late, and this season, if the trend continues, Sylvester Croom may start feeling his seat getting warmer and warmer. After two years at Miss. State, Croom will be playing this year with some of his recruits, and we'll see what he can do. Meanwhile, Spurrier isn't happy with what he has at South Carolina, especially with the attitudes of some of his upper classman. Still, even if Crooms has Miss. State poised for a big year, I think the Gamecocks will walk awsy with this one, in what will probably be a barn-burning defensive battle.
My pick: South Carolina

The problem with the 12th game

2006-08-08T13:00:00.000-05:00

This season, the NCAA has allowed the scheduling of a 12th game for I-A football. In theory, that was supposed to lead to better intersectional, interconference matchups. Mark Schlabach on espn.com is criticizing various programs - predictably, he names only top SEC programs and some top ACC programs - for the supposedly "weak" OOC scheduling.

In his effort to curry favor with the anti-SEC higher ups at the Mickey Mouse Club, Schlabach conveniently forgot the flaw in the current schedule: the NCAA added an extra game to the schedule, but did not add another week in which to play it. Thus, to play the 12th game, schools (at least in years like this one where only 13 Saturdays fall between Labor Day weekend and Thanksgiving weekend) must surrender an open date. The result is that many programs - including those that Schlabach smeared - are playing as many as 12 weeks in a row.

Further, weeks 11 and 12 for Auburn will be Georgia and Alabama. Weeks 11 and 12 for Alabama will be LSU and Auburn. Given that top programs in BCS conferences all have to plan for a national championship run, how in the world are they supposed to add top competition onto already tough schedules and at the same time REDUCE their time to prepare (not to mention recuperate)? Auburn anticipates playing 12 games in a row, 8 againsgt SEC foes and one against Washington State. Who cares if the other three are Buffalo, Tulane, and Ark State (the last of which, BTW, was in a bowl game a year ago). Same with Alabama, which must play 8 SEC games and a perennial mid major bowl team in Hawaii. They need teams like Duke and LaMo, or they'd be dead by the time the brutal final stretch came around.

The bottom line is the NCAA needs to be blamed for not adding the extra week b/c they made it harder, not easier, for top programs to schedule top competition. Don't blame the institutions; they're just playing the hand they were dealt.

hell in a handbasket

2006-08-02T18:59:00.000-05:00

wow. today's espn college football main page reads like a rouge's gallery. serious trouble at major programs across the country (and yes, texas has its share). i don't buy the "college players should get paid" argument, and i certainly don't think it excuses bomar and others from their transgressions. another argument: this has been going on for years, we just hear more about it due to 24 hours sports networks, internet sites, etc.

thoughts?

2006 Pre-Season Predictions

2006-07-23T12:26:00.000-05:00

Last year, the team I ranked #8 (Texas) won the title. Admittedly, that was lower than most ranking services had the Longhorns. I had USC, which at least was in the national championship game, beating Miami (FL) for the title.

I did have some spot on picks like Georgia winning the SEC title over LSU, and I jumped on neither the Tennessee bandwagon ranking the Vols much lower (#12) than most rating services where the Vols checked in as high as #3 nor the Florida bandwagon with the Gators at #19. Like all rating services, I overrated Oklahoma and Louisville. My most overrated teams last year were Miami (FL) and Louisville. My most underrated teams were my very own alma mater, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Penn State.

Trends from my recent polls: I generally overrate Miami (FL) and Lousville. Indeed, over the past 3 years, I have ranked Miami (FL) #2 (when Texas won the title), #1 (when USC won the title), and #4 (when USC/LSU won the title). Having said that, Miami has a better record than ANYONE over the past 5 years (53-9 versus USC's 54-10) so maybe I'm not so crazy. This year should be no different -- I'm potentially overrating both Miami and Louisville AGAIN. Miami's defense should be the best in the country, and they have enough offensive skill players to win a national title. They open at home against Florida State, and then has a nasty test, ironically, against Louisville on the road. Other than that, the schedule is rather easy. If Miami does not make the national title game, they should look at this year as a disappointment. As for Louisville, I believe they have enough firepower offensively to make a run for the national title as well. I think they stumble against Miami (FL) at home, but beat West Virginia to finish as a one-loss team this year.

Who will Miami play for the title? The second team is a tricky proposition. Ohio State should overrcome an early season loss at Texas and run the table. They will be rated higher than Louisville if both teams finish with one loss. LSU has a murderous schedule but more talent than anyone in the loaded SEC this year. If LSU makes it to the title game, look for them to win it. I just don't think they can make it through their regular season schedule without a blemish which is likely what it would take for them to play for the title. USC should not go undefeated this year with tests against Notre Dame, California, Arizona State, and a very underrated Arkansas team. Texas lost all-world QB Vince Young, but look for them to lose no more than 2 games this year. The Gators should be much improved in year two of Urban Meyer's campaign, and the schedule is much more favorable this year for them to make a run at the title. I think the Gators shock the world this year, and come through the SEC with only one loss. However, it won't be enough to jump Ohio State in the polls, thus leading to a rematch of the teams involved in the 2002 National Title, Miami (FL) and Ohio State.

I think Ohio State beats an undefeated Hurricanes squad for the title. There will probably be tons of second guessing as to who should have played for the title, as this year bodes well for a plethora of one loss teams. Indeed, I'm predicting that Ohio State (at Texas), Florida (at Auburn), and Louisville (at home against Miami) all finish with one regular season loss. It is very possible either Texas, USC, LSU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, or even Auburn could finish the year with one loss as well. Should be an interesting year.

Without further ado, here are the pre-season rankings for 2006:

College Football Pre-Season Rankings

1) Ohio State
2) Miami (FL)
3) Florida
4) LSU
5) Texas
6) USC
7) Notre Dame
8) Louisville
9) Oklahoma
10) Auburn
11) West Virginia
12) California
13) Florida State
14) Iowa
15) Texas A&M
16) Michigan
17) Arizona State
18) Maryland
19) TCU
20) Alabama
21) Texas Tech
22) Boston College
23) Arkansas
24) Georgia
25) Penn State

Not ranked but considered: South Carolina, Tennessee, Purdue, Michigan State, Minnesota, Clemson, Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State,Georgia Tech, Oregon, Nebraska, Colorado, UTEP, Boise State, Fresno State, Miami (OH), Utah, BYU

(I expect to take the most flak for #18 Maryland, #15 Texas A&M, and #8 Louisville...)

Conference Predictions:

SEC East:
1) Florida
2) South Carolina
3) Georgia
4) Tennessee
5) Kentucky
6) Vanderbilt

SEC West:
1) LSU
2) Auburn
3) Alabama
tie) Arkansas
5) Ole Miss
6) Mississippi State

Big 12 South:
1) Oklahoma
2) Texas
tie) Texas A&M
tie) Texas Tech
5) Baylor
6) Oklahoma State

Big 12 North:
1) Nebraska
2) Iowa State
3) Kansas
4) Colorado
5) Kansas State
6) Missouri

Big 10:
1) Ohio State
2) Iowa
tie) Michigan
4) Penn State
tie) Michigan State
6) Purdue
7) Minnesota
8) Wisconsion
9) Indiana
10) Northwestern
11) Illinois

Pac 10:
1) USC
2) California
3) Arizona State
4) UCLA
5) Oregon
6) Arizona
7) Stanford
8) Washington State
9) Oregon State
10) Washington

Big East:
1) Louisville
2) West Virginia
3) Pitt
4) Syracuse
5) Rutgers
6) USF
7) UConn
8) Cincinnatti

No prediction yet on shaking out the ACC which should have one elite team (Miami) and ten good teams (yes, including UNC and Wake). Duke will not win an ACC game this year...

New York Slimes

2006-07-17T15:37:00.000-05:00

Readership of the Ocho:

Do not take my silence on the false and misleading hit piece from last Friday's New York Times to be a tacit acceptance of the Times' conclusion, agenda, or tactics. I am in the process of cataloguing the factual errors, mischaracterizations, inaccurate quotations, violations of journalistic ethics, violations of New York Times policy, and potential violations of federal law that accompanied this article and the Times' subsequent institutional editorial published today. The list of such transgressions is lengthy, and will take time to complete. Additionally, I will have to make sure I'm not interfering with the coordinated response that will come from the Auburn Family.

As soon as I'm done with this, and get the ok, I'll go forward with eviscerating Pete Thammel's work of fiction.

A Rose Bowl by any other name

2006-07-04T10:12:00.000-05:00

In addition to the changes in nomenclature of certain schools with Native American nicknames is coming another change: the BCS national championship game has chosen to become anonymous. Though the game will be played in the metro Phoenix area this year, it will not be the Fiesta Bowl (that bowl will, as JoePa notes below, still be a BCS bowl, and will take place a week before the title game). It will simply be called "the BCS National Championship Game."

In a sport that is so rich in tradition, this change should be very unwelcome. Names like Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Sun, and Gator have long been a part of the college football and New Year's Day lexicon. To make the biggest college game of the year a game without a name is a tragedy of epic proportions. The 2 for 1 in the same city was workable: just let each city come up with a new name for a new bowl. Now, college football is without a moniker even to match "The Final Four" or "The College World Series." The sport that invented tradition has now abandoned it.

If the BCS persists in wanting a single name for its title game regardless of city, then I have a modest proposal: call it "The Orrin Hatch Bowl." As JoePa mentoned below, the primary reason for the creation of the 5th BCS bowl game was the fear of Congressional intervention, and Hatch, the meddlesome Mormon from Utah, was the primary agitator in support thereof. So, if we're going to wreck a century of tradition, let's at least pay homage to the man who made us wreck it.

Mid-Majors in the BCS? Who is the most likely to go?

2006-06-27T17:07:00.000-05:00

Starting this year, the BCS has changed its rules once again, adding a fifth BCS bowl as an unnamed title game, which will rotate through the four big boys of the BCS every year (Fiesta, Orange, Rose, and Sugar), so once every years, one bowl will host two games. This year, the lucky bowl is the Fiesta, so the Phoenix area gets to be home not to two (Insight and Fiesta), but three bowls this year.

More importantly, the two additional at-large bids come with some new rules, favoring the inclusion of mid-majors. These rules allow for a non-BCS conference team with a rating of 16th or higher in the BCS poll to gain an at-large bid if it is ranked higher than any of the BCS conference champions. Under these rules, last year, TCU, winner of the Mountain West, would have received a BCS bid, as it was ranked higher than 16th and higher ranked than Florida State, the lowest ranked BCS conference champion. I'm sure the powers that be at the BCS hope this change to give the have-nots some table scraps will help them maintain their stranglehold on the national championship, and keep Congress and the mid-majors from talking about unfair competition. What it certainly does is keep the prospects of any form of a playoff very dim indeed.

However, the changes are a bright spot for the following mid-major teams, who could, just possibly, slip into a BCS bowl and big bucks this season. One thing to keep in mind - to make it, a non-BCS team will almost certainly have to win its conference, and probably can't survive more than one loss to a BCS conference opponent. Any loss in conference or to a non-BCS conference opponent likely kills any chance to slip into the BCS. The possible Cinderellas for this year, in order of likelihood, are as follows:

1.) TCU - If the Horned Frogs should've gone last year, they certainly should this year. While their loss last year to SMU still leaves people scratching their heads, and the win over Oklahoma was over a very different team than the Oklahoma at the end of the season, TCU made a bang in its first season in the Mountain West. Expect the trend to continue, although it may face some in-conference opposition from Utah. It's non-conference schedule so far includes at Baylor, at Army, and a visit from Texas Tech. If the Horned Frogs can beat the Red Raiders, or even keep it close, and win out, expect them to have a BCS bid at the end of the season.

2.) Utah - Utah finds itself in a similar situation to TCU, as its non-conference schedule includes at UCLA, Northern Arizona, at Utah State, and Boise State. Of these, only UCLA and Boise State provide any challenge, and Boise State have to come to Salt Lake City. With a win over UCLA, or a close loss, and winning every other game, Utah will bump out TCU and take its BCS hopes away.

3.) Boise State (notice a trend here?) - Boise State is poised to win the WAC again, if it can manage to win out. Boise State lost its chance at perfection by losing to Fresno State last year, but at least this year, its non-conference schedule isn't as brutal. It gets Oregon State at home, replaces Georgia with at Utah, and has at Wyoming and I-AA Sacramento State to fill out its non-conference schedule. In this case, Boise State has to win out altogether to make it to the BCS, as the WAC schedule is not going to be quite as demanding as the MWC slate Utah and TCU face. A win in Salt Lake City, and a repeat of 2004's win over Oregon State on the Smurf Turf, ought to send the Broncos to the BCS, assuming they manage to overcome both Fresno State and a quickly improving Nevada in-conference.

4.) UTEP - Mike Price has shown his ability to coach (and stay away from one-night stands with strippers) in El Paso, and the Miners have a real chance to win the C-USA crown and go undefeated. With a non-conference slate that includes getting Texas Tech at home, and playing New Mexico, New Mexico State, and San Diego State, UTEP has a real shot at making it into conference play undefeated. Once in conference, the biggest hurdle is a game at Marshall, and the C-USA conference championship game, likely against UCF from the East. Like Boise State, UTEP will have to win out, due to the pollsters having far more respect for the Mountain West competition than the C-USA competition. It'll help if Texas Tech, in losing to the Miners, also manages to beat the Horned Frogs. Otherwise, even an undefeated season may not be enough to lift the Miners to one of the big bowls.

Outside of these four, all the other mid-major teams are a real longshot to make it to the BCS. TCU, Utah, Boise State, and UTEP stand out by having winnable contests with BCS conference opponents, and a chance to win every game in-conference. Marshall and UCF face much bigger non-conference opponents (West Virginia and Florida, respectively), and even in the unlikely event a MAC or Sun Belt team manages to win out, the quality of conference competition and the likely awful season for whatever BCS conference opponent can somehow lose to a member of one of these two conferences puts it out of reach. So, if one of our 4 Cinderellas can win out, or in the case of TCU or Utah, manage a very close loss to their BCS conference opponents, we'll see a mid-major in a BCS bowl again this year.

Way to go, BCS - you made it possible for one of four additional teams to make it. Way to open it up to the little guys.

Who will be #1 (or rather, who won't)?

2006-06-26T19:22:00.000-05:00

The punditry has selected its favorites, and, predictably, they have largely followed the Ocho, as we clearly set the college football world's agenda. However, the national championship contenders selected is a flawed list. Here are some examples of the flaws in the programs, and why they won't be #1:

1) Ohio State. The Buckeyes had an incredible year last year, losing two heartbreakers to two top 3 teams and earning a decisive win over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. The media have made them the favorite to win it all this year, largely b/c the media watch college football like 13 year old girls. Passing is pretty, and offensive skill players that run fast are supercool. Thus, Troy Smith and Ted Ginn, Jr. are this year's dashing darlings, and have the Bucknuts pegged as the top dogs in this year's race. They're not. Why? Well, for starters, it's starters. As in, 9 of them lost off tOSU's sensational unit from a year ago. They will again play solid defense, but an inexperienced unit will have breakdowns, especially early, when they must face the defending national champs on the road. The Big 10 is such a brutally tough conference that one can't plan on going unbeaten in it. The gang's all here, and they'll beat Indiana now, but 10-2 is a more realistic expectation for this squad than 12-0.

2) Texas. The media have now decided that Mack Brown can, in fact, win the big game, and are ready to jump on the Horns bandwagon and ride it all the way down IH-35 and and 10 to Tempe. However, neither Colt McCoy nor Jevan Snead is Vince young, and Greg Davis is still Greg Davis. Additionally, Chizik's schematic flaws were exposed in 2 of his last 3 games. Replacing a 1st round draft pick at QB and the Thorpe award winner on defense can be costly. Ask Chizik's old boss Tommy Tuberville. The Horns face 5 potential stumbling blocks: tOSU, OU, Texas Tech, Nebraska, and Texas A&M. They likely win at least 3, but lose at least one. If they can lose just one, and it's an early, OOC loss to tOSU, they can be a threat. Still, they'll need hope.

3( Notre Dame. ND's back. They lost only 3 games in their coach's first year and made it to a NYD bowl game. Yes, 2002 clearly marked the return of the Irish. Oh wait, we're talking about 2005, now, aren't we? Second verse, same as the first. Notre Dame continues to be to college football what Pet Sounds is to music or The English Patient is to film. People feel compelled to list them on 10 best lists even if logic and reason indicates that they're not that good. ND' stitle dreams end in week one, when Jeff Smardizja gets to see who college football's real top WR is as Calvin Johnson torches Rick Minter's porous D, just like a bad Michigan State team did last year.

4) USC. Until the 6 minute mark in the Rose Bowl, things couldn't have been going much better for Pete Carroll and the Men of Troy. Since then, things couldn't be goin gmuch worse. A late game meltdown against Texas, the loss of all their top offensive skill players, potential NCAA problems, as well as off the field troubles with phenom QB Mark Sanchez. Combine all that with the fact that the Trojan D has slipped badly in each of the last two years, the fact that the college football world now can see SC would have zero titles if they'd been matched against the appropriate teams in '03 and '04. Add on to the top of that they must open on the road against the most improved team in the country, where they will meet a RB who can both run fast and run between the tackles. They don't see many of those in Cali, and will likely not know what to do. They're more likely to be off the radar screen by the end of September (where they face two of the most improved teams in the Pac 10 in Arizona and Wazzu) than still on it in Nobember.

5) Auburn. The 13 year old girl factor at work again. Kenny Irons can run really fast, and Brandon Cox is just dreamy. Well, Auburn must install its 3rd defensive system in 3 years. Sure, Muschamp has been a smash on the Plains thus far, but they open against one of the nation's most potent offenses with an experienced QB. The shift to a different DC with different terminology and different gameday signals cost Auburn its opener a year ago, and may do so again. Combine that with AU depending on newbies on the DL and in the secondary, and the defense is likely to have some difficulty early. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the schedule is unusually frontloaded with the first half of the season featuring games against Washington State, LSU, South Carolina, Arkansas and Florida (the latter 3 in successive weeks). There are teams in the NFC South that couldn't make it through that stretch unbeaten. However, if the Hard Fighting Soldiers are still unbeaten at that point, watch out.

So what does all this mean?? There is no clear cut #1, no team to beat, no frontrunner. it means this likely to be a heck of a year in which at least one team in the BCS title game has a loss, and possibly both, and possibly another year of turmoil for the BCS in which algorithms and decimal points mean more than on the field accomplishments. In other words, it ought to be a wild race to the finish, and I can't wait.

Now Just Four Little Indians

2006-06-13T18:06:00.000-05:00

Prior to June 1, 2006, there were five remaining universities that had Native American mascots that played college football at the Division 1A level. Those five instituions were Arkansas State (Indians), Central Michigan (Chippewas), Florida State (Seminoles), Louisiana-Monroe (Indians), and Utah (Utes). Of those, CMU, FSU, and Utah had been granted permission to continue using their nicknames, primarily because a. the nicknames were actual tribes and b. the schools gained permission from at least one remaining branch of those tribes to keep using the names.

However, as of June 1, 2006, Louisiana-Monroe (or ULaMo, as I like to call it) will now use "Warhawks" as its nickname for its athletic teams. Now, on one level, I applaud this. One of the most annoying things to me in a sports league/conference is for multiple teams to have the same nickname (such as Auburn/LSU Tigers, MSU/Georgia Bulldogs, the two Roughriders teams formerly in the CFL (Ottawa has since folded)). In addition, Warhawks apparently has a connection with the area, as the P-40 Warhawk was flown by General Claire Chennault, a graduate of what was once Northeastern Louisiana.

But, on the other hand, I have come to despise the trend in political correctness in sports. While it may or may not be fair to Native Americans to be utilized as a sports mascot, the fact remains that no one picks a mascot to ridicule it (the UC-Santa Cruz Banana Slug an exception to this rule). Teams want a mascot that exudes stength and victory and honor and glory. Like Spartan. Or Trojan. Or Mountaineer. Or Ragin' Cajun. I bring the last two up, only because they are the two non-Native American mascots that actually could apply to modern demographic groups in the United States. I understand that Redskin or Redman or Savage can be seen as offensive, just as changing Mountaineer to Redneck or Inbreeder would be. But the NCAA's heavy handed policy of forcing schools to change their long-standing nicknames to appease a small but vocal group of people who find it insulting or demeaning disturbs me. What's next? Greek-Americans advocating a ban on the use of Spartan or Trojan? PETA complaining about animal mascots or nicknames? Crayola copyrighting Crimson, Cardinal, and the like? Where does it stop?

Kudos to ULaMo for finding an alternative that not only ties into school history, but also sounds pretty intimidating too. I just hate the fact that the NCAA forced them into it, by pandering to the opinions of people who really just ought to be told, "Tough. Guess you'll have to be insulted. Don't come to any of games, then."

uh oh

2006-06-09T17:52:00.000-05:00

the problem with using a timely handle is you have to keep it updated. to that end, Vince4Heisman has left early for the draft, you may now call me JamaalRunGood, or sir.

Comparing the Pre-Season Polls

2006-06-06T10:52:00.000-05:00

Way back in January, before the Ocho went on an unplanned temporary hiatus, I put up my pre-pre-season top 8. Now, most of the other polls have come out, the spring games have happened, and we can see how my top 8 stacks up against everyone else's.

So, here are the JoePa Uber Alles Top 8 Pre-Pre-Season picks.
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. West Virginia
4. Texas
5. USC
6. Oklahoma
7. Notre Dame
8. Florida

Now, in comparison, here are some other top eights that have appeared since then, with links attached:

Stewart Mandel of SI.com

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. ND
4. WVU
5. LSU
6. Oklahoma
7. USC
8. Cal (Incidentally, Mandel had Florida as his number 11, while I don't mention Cal at all)

Dennis Dodd of CBS Sportsline.com

1. Ohio State
2. WVU
3. Auburn (mentioned in my 8 next teams, in no particular order)
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas
7. Notre Dame
8. USC (Florida comes in as his number 9)

Ivan Maisel at ESPN.com

1. Ohio State
2. Oklahoma
3. WVU
4. Texas
5. Florida State (mentioned in my next 8 list)
6. USC
7. Cal (again, I didn't mention the Golden Bears)
8. Notre Dame (Florida and LSU come in at 12 and not mentioned. UTEP is his 23, but no LSU? Wow.)

Okay, so what do we gather from all this? Every poll has Ohio State at number one. 6 of the 8 teams I picked as my top eight are in every poll listed here. So, this means one of three things:
1. My picks are about as good as those of sportswriters and professionals, and are a result of having spent years watching and commenting on college football as an amateur
2. Sportswriters' picks are about as bad as mine, despite their supposed better experience as professionals.
3. All of us jump on certain teams' bandwagons, and the preseason polls reflect those bandwagons more than giving any sort of reliable indicator of expected finish in the upcoming college football season.

Figure it out yourselves, and remember, college football starts on September 2. Only 88 more days to go.

Why I Was Wrong in Saying that Joe Pa is the Winningest Coach

2006-06-06T10:38:00.000-05:00

Some may remember a few months ago that I wrote an impassioned argument as to why Joe Pa should retain the crown as winningest Division IA coach. This argument had everything to do with 21 wins Bobby Bowden had at Howard College (now Samford) and the injustice of counting those toward his overall win total. Well, while I may still find it unjust, I cannot say any longer that it was against the rules.

Upon trolling the Internet and researching this issue further, I found that the NCAA does indeed have a rule to cover this (and my questions about either Eddie Robinson or John Gagliardi coaching a Division IA game to get the record). The NCAA rules allow all prior wins to be counted if the coach coaches ten years at the Division IA level. Therefore, if ER or JG ever had coached/will coach a DIA program for 10 years, all of their prior wins would be counted toward their overall DIA win total.

While I may debate the fairness of this rule, and its future applicability now that there are clear divisions in college football (which there were not when Bobby Bowden was at Howard), the fact remains that the rules do indeed explaign why Bobby gets credit for those 21 wins.

All that's left to me is to say I was wrong, and that I hope Penn State keeps moving up and FSU keeps moving down. A couple more 1 loss seasons for my boys balanced by a couple more 5 loss seasons for the Seminoles will catapult JoePa back into first place again.

Preseason Top 8 picks - Crystal Ball time - Week -34 2006

2006-01-10T15:27:00.000-06:00

It's never too early, right? Joining in on the highly speculative (after all, neither early entries to the draft or recruiting has been finalized yet) practice of guessing who will be the best next year, here are my votes on the Ocho's preseason college football poll. (Why a top 8? Think about it.)

1. Ohio State - Why Ohio State? Why not Texas, or USC, or Penn State, or LSU? One big reason is a returning QB in Troy Smith, and the return of most of the offense. While three starting linebackers are gone, along with wideout Santonio Holmes, Ohio State's domination of Notre Dame combined with the close losses to the eventual #1 and #3 teams is enough to make me think that they'll be able to fill those holes and keep moving on up.

2. LSU - I have problems with ranking LSU this high, stemming entirely from Les Miles. Maybe he got a handle on things by the Peach Bowl, maybe the Tigers just wanted it more, maybe the players were just worn out due to the aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina. Still, the Tigers lost to the worst Tennessee team in recent memory, surrendering a huge halftime lead in the process. The talent is there, and with the right coaching, LSU could be making a return trip to the SEC championship game. Les, however, is a big "but" right now.

3. West Virginia - Why so high? Despite the sophomore slumps by the dynamic duo of Michigan, WV's offense was run by freshmen and this team had a huge lead on Georgia early in this game. Surely these freshmen will get better, not worse? Right? More importantly, the Mountaineers are sure to be the team to beat in a depleted Big East, which gives them a good shot at finishing undefeated. Why No. 3, you ask? Because an undefeated LSU and Ohio State will get the nod before WVU does.

4. Texas - With Vince Young leaving (good luck, Vince - hope the Saints don't want you), Texas has no depth at QB. This is in addition to key losses on defense, and the departure of most of the most dominant offensive line in recent memory will keep the Longhorns from repeating next year. While there's still plenty of depth at RB, and talent coming in, expect Mack Brown to lose at least once next year, probably to my number 1 pick, Ohio State.

5. USC - USC loses even more than Texas. QB, both RB's, and while much of the defense will be back, that's not saying much, is it? I think this is a bigger reload than the one between 02 and 03, with a steadily more competitive Pac 10 providing more and more opportunities for an early season loss or two.

6. Oklahoma - With some more experience at QB, and the steady stream of recruits coming into Norman, Bob Stoops will be back up again next year, contending with Texas for the Big 12 South championship and therefore the de facto championship of the Big 12. Whoever wins that game in Dallas is in the driver's seat - I think Mack has broken the curse, and there's enough talent still at Texas to overcome the Sooners next year. Don't expect many other losses on OU's schedule next year, though.

7. Notre Dame - Seventeen returning starters. Charlie Weis coaching. That should be enough, right? Why am I so reticent to put ND here? Because their most significant win all season long turned out to be over Michigan, a 7-5 team this year. Looking at ND's schedule, the only wins against teams with winning records were Navy, Michigan, and BYU. Not that impressive. A lot of talent will be back next year, plus ND overachieved this year as it is. More importantly, no one else looked good enough to be up this high.

8. Florida - The win over Iowa helps Florida to a pre-pre-season top 10 spot. With wins over all its big rivals this year, and Urban having another year with Chris Leak to tweak his system, Florida should be the team to beat in the SEC East next year. Still, the SEC is neither the MAC nor the MWC, so it shouldn't be a cakewalk for the Gators.

On the outside, looking in, or the best of the rest (in no particular order): FSU, PSU, Georgia, Auburn, TCU, Alabama, Va Tech, Michigan.

Is JoePa Uber NOW?

2006-01-09T11:42:00.000-06:00

The National Organization for Women has called for Joe Paterno's resignation.

http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/5232056

The Rose Bowl

2006-01-04T09:46:00.000-06:00

Who's going to win? I'm torn on the matter. During the season, I would've said Texas hands down, b/c the Longhorn D was better by a (insert a Mrs. JoePaUberAlles West Texas saying that means "a whole lot" here). If this game were played in Austin in October, Texas probably wins by 2-3 scores.

However, this is a bowl game. There were 4 weeks to prepare, not one. That changes a lot. First, the SC D has 4 weeks to prepare for Greg Davis, which is almost criminally unfair. Second, Vince, while a one man highlight reel, can be a turnover factory in big games. Against the one elite defense the Horns saw this year, tOSU, Young threw two picks and fumbled twice (didn't lose them). The fumble-itis was back against Texas A&M, which leads me to believe that Texas is vulnerable if hit hard.

On the other side, SC's vaunted offense usually gets in the low 20s against really good defenses (Cal last year, Auburn the two years before, K State in '02). With turnovers, they could add to that total. Also, Chiz has two main schematic flaws. The first is that against the run, he tends to have the DL downshift after the protection is called, and then walk a LB up so that the O-lineman are all committed into blocks against the front five, and the other LBs are freed up. The fix to that, employed with some success by OU, is to run a double tight end set, accounting for man on man blocking of all the front seven. Chow never seemed to take advantage of this, and I doubt Sarkisian and Kiffin have the discipline to. They want to sling the ball down the field and have Reggie Bush move horizontally. Plus, Bush doesn't have the skills to take advantage of this, b/c he won't run between the tackles (unless there's a gigantic hole, which they might blow open for him). LenDale White could, but, let's face it: he's just not that good.

The second and more problematic is that Chiz has a tendency to assign the safeties to more than one gap, leading to their being out of position on a regular basis. We saw this against Tennessee in the '04 SECCG, when it was burned by the run, and this past game against A&M, when it would've been burned by the pass if McGee could hit the broad side of a barn. This is very likely to be a vulnerability that leads to a couple of big plays for the Trojans.

The wild card could be special teams. SC has relied on explosive KR/PR out of Bush. Texas has quietly built up one of the top special teams units in the nation. Neutralizing the SC return game, and making a big play or two in the kicking game for themselves, may very well be the difference in the Horns winning or losing.

Thoughts?

Iron Conference - Which Conference Regins Supreme?

2005-12-31T08:20:00.000-06:00

Every year, ESPN keeps track of how conferences are doing in the bowl games - which conference beats which, which conference beats no one, etc. While many take this as an indication of the relative strengths and weaknesses of each individual conference, I find it far more telling of the quality of coaches facing off in that particular bowl, and on what the bowl means to each team. Take, for instance, the Alamo Bowl. Lloyd Carr, relatively secure in his position and Michigan having gone bowling for pretty much my lifetime in a row, takes on Bill Callahan's Cornhuskers, with a hot seat and a year sans bowl behind them. Nebraska ends up taking that one (though note I thought the Wolverines would).

Despite my thoughts that it doesn't provide an accurate comparison, here are the results to date, by conference:

ACC: 3 (Clemson, BC, Va) - 2 (Miami, Georgia Tech)
Big 12: 4 (Oklahoma, Neb, Kansas, Missouri) - 1 (Colorado)
Big East: 0-1(Rutgers - sure was a better game than I thought the Scarlet Knights would have, though)
Big 10: 0-3 (Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota)
CUSA: 2 (Memphis, So. Miss) - 3 (UTEP, UCF, Houston)
Independents: 1 (Navy)-0
MAC: 1 (Toledo) - 1 (Akron)
MWC: 1 (Utah) - 2 (BYU, Colo. St.)
Pac 10: 3 (Cal, ASU, UCLA) - 1 (Oregon - wow, Holiday Bowl deja vu)
SEC: 1 (LSU) - 1 (So. Carolina)
Sun Belt: 0-1 (Arkansas State)
WAC: 1 (Nevada) - 1 (Boise State)

So far, if you think the bowls are demonstrative, the Big 12 is the best conference, with wins over a Pac 10, SEC, Big 10, and CUSA team, with the sole loss coming to an ACC team. Aside from the Sun Belt (whose conference champion wins the right to lose a bowl game), the Big 10 is doing the worst, with 3 losses (though all to BCS conference teams).

There you have it, Iron Conference to date. Whose Conference will regin supreme? Who knows?

ESPN has reached new heights of absurdity

2005-12-29T20:51:00.000-06:00

ESPN has lately been hyping the 2005 USC Trojans as one of the best teams of all time. I know, I started laughing, too, but it gets much worse. This is obviously, easily the worst SC team since the run began in 2002. Nevertheless, there are people on ESPN like Mark May actually saying this USC team would beat 2001 Miami. WTF???? 2001 Miami rivals 1992 Alabama for best defense of the modern era in football. The entire freaking secondary is in the League, as are Wilfork, Vilma, DJ Williams, etc. The only Miami NC team that this USC squad would beat was the ridiculous '83 team that won the championship despite losing by 25 to the third place SEC team.

2004 Auburn was easily one of the top 5 college football teams of all time. Where were these comparisons a year ago? Methinks Tommy Tuberville was on to something with his conspiracy theory.

Why Joe Paterno Really is the Winningest Division I-A Coach

2005-12-19T07:40:00.000-06:00

The biggest draw in the Orange Bowl this year is to see the first head to head matchup between NCAA Division I-A's two winningest coaches since 1990 (the Blockbuster Bowl, which FSU won). In light of this, let's examine the quality of the wins, and I'll support my thesis that Bobby Bowden should currently be a distant (by 15 games) second to Joe Paterno.

Joe Paterno's head coaching career has occurred at one team, and one team only: Penn State. JoePa has picked up 353 wins in the 40 seasons he's been the head coach at Penn State. During that time, Penn State has never been classified as anything other than a Division I-A school, or, prior to 1973 when the divisions were added, a Major College in the NCAA University Division (from 1937 to 1973). Moreover, among those 353 wins include two, and only two, wins against teams that are now or were at the time Division I-AA teams: Brown and William and Mary. Both games were played within 3 years of the teams switching from the highest level of NCAA football, which leads me to the speculation that the games were scheduled when the teams were at the highest level. Speculation aside, though, that means JoePa has had 351 wins against Division I-A opponents during his career.

Bobby Bowden, however, follows a different path. He notched 42 wins at West Virginia, before moving over to FSU and racking up 286 wins. He has a total of 359, which leaves him 21 short right now. Where did those wins happen? At what is currently Samford, a Division I-AA school. But wait, you might ask? Was not Samford (or Howard College, as it was known then), in the upper level of NCAA football, much like Brown and William and Mary had been? Not exactly. In referencing the College Football Data Warehouse (www.cfbdatawarehouse.com), it shows a distinct N/A when asked about what NCAA division Samford played in during Bobby Bowden's tenure (1959-1962). So we must look at the nature of the competition that Bobby played while there. Sewanee. Tennessee-Martin. Troy State. West Alabama. Gordon Junior College. Furman. Wofford. University of Mexico. Clearly, Samford was not a Division I-A caliber school, as evidenced by the fact that in 1973, when the NCAA did introduce divisions, Samford began as a Division III school. Bobby has a similar record to JoePa, at FSU and WVU, with him winning 11 games against Division I-AA opponents at WVU and 7 at FSU. Of those 18 wins, 12 of them came against teams that were still at the top level of NCAA football or had very recently left that top level.

Look, I don't want to take anything away from Bobby Bowden. He's a great coach, and he almost singlehandily created Florida State football from scratch. But it's a punch in the gut that the wins he got at Samford are counted in his total, so far as counting toward being the winningest Division I-A coach of all time. If Eddie Robinson of Grambling had coached one season at Division I-A, instead of retiring in Division I-AA, should he be the winningest I-A coach, instead of just the winningest Division I coach? What about John Gagliardi at St. John's in Minnesota? He's the winningest NCAA coach ever - give him a I-A season, and he'll get the record. Or, as we should do with Bobby, we should only count the wins gotten as a coach of a Division I-A team? The NCAA complicates things, by not having a clear divisional system prior to 1973, but every indication is that the Samford of 1959-1962 was not a major college/Division I-A team, nor did Samford play that caliber of opposition.

Come on, NCAA - do the right thing. Count Bobby's wins at Samford toward his overall total, but slash those 21 wins from his Division I-A record and recognize the fact that JoePa is the winningest coach ever in Division I-A football history (not that it will matter much if FSU keeps sliding and PSU keeps winning, but still - it's the principle of the matter).

Compare then to now

2005-12-12T23:18:00.000-06:00

Here's the link to SI.com's preseason predictions about this year.

Take a look, and see how well it matched reality:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/specials/preview/2005/

The NCAA 2006 Playoff Simulation (x2)

2005-12-12T18:02:00.000-06:00

Ain't technology grand? Using just my little old PS2, and the latest copy of EA Sports' NCAA College Football franchise, I can simulate a 16 team playoff in a little over a week.

Using the two formulae I mentioned earlier (the Crawford/Conference Champ vs. the Patterson/Best 16 Teams), I will simulate how a playoff might look, and what its results might be. Keep in mind, these are the teams anticipated at the beginning of the season, and not how the season ended, so no injuries (see Alabama and Tyrone Prothro) will be taken into account, nor will unexpected breakout performances (see the Drews of UCLA, or some freshmen in the Penn State receiving corps). I'll post the results after each round of each formula.

So, first, since this is common to both, I'll talk about locations. Instead of playing games at home fields in the early rounds, I decided to play the games within the bowl system, and take advantage of next year's Plus One game. I took the 14 bowls with the highest payoff, arranged them by round by payoff (except for the Cotton, due entirely to its history and my senitmentality regarding that history), and the NC will be played in the Rose Bowl (which is otherwise a quarter-final site).

Round One: Alamo Bowl, Gator Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Independence Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Outback Bowl, Peach Bowl, and Sun Bowl
Round Two: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl
Round Three: Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl
Final: Rose Bowl redux

So, on to the brackets and games, using BCS (or estimated, for Boise State and Arkansas State):

Crawford Method (bowls in alphabetical order):
1. USC vs. 16. Arkansas State - Alamo Bowl
2. Texas vs. 15. Akron - Gator Bowl
3. Penn State vs. 14. Tulsa - Holiday Bowl
4. Ohio State vs. 13. Boise State - Independence Bowl
5. Oregon vs. 12. FSU - Liberty Bowl
6. Notre Dame vs. 11. TCU - Outback Bowl
7. Georgia vs. 10. West Virginia - Peach Bowl
8. Miami vs. 9. Auburn - Sun Bowl

Patterson Method (bowls in alphabetical order):
1. USC vs. 16. UCLA - Alamo
2. Texas vs. 15. Texas Tech - Gator
3. Penn State vs. 14. TCU - Holiday
4. Ohio State vs. 13. Alabama - Independence
5. Oregon vs. 12. LSU - Liberty
6. Notre Dame vs. 11. West Virginia - Outback
7. Georgia vs. 10. Virginia Tech - Peach
8. Miami vs. 9. Auburn - Sun

Stay tuned for the first update, once Round One has been completed on both brackets.

Note: I forgot Akron the first time; poor LSU gets left off my bracket.

Note 2: I also forgot Tulsa the first time - bye bye, Va Tech (I need to actually read my posts before posting again)

Write your congressman: tell him to stay the hell out of our game!

2005-12-08T21:16:00.000-06:00

As JoePaUberAlles mentioned, the United States Congress has decided to stick its nose into college football. My first reaction upon hearing this was to reminisce about Libertarian Nominee Harry Browne's comment in the 1996 "Alternative" Debate (which means, "debate for people who have no chance in hell of winning." The college football equivalent is the annual Kentucky-Indiana game). Browne stated that he was a Christian and was opposed to abortion, but, "Given the federal government's success in the war on poverty and the war on drugs, if we start a war on abortions, men would start having abortions." Congress, please don't ruin the greatest sport in America.

post-season awards

2005-12-08T20:07:00.000-06:00

i'll have to change my handle to vince4o'brien. that'll be his consolation prize, as it'll take an act of congress to keep bush from winning the heisman.

congrats to michael huff on the thorpe. very deserving.

Coaching changes

2005-12-08T13:48:00.000-06:00

Fran survived at A&M, but the ax fell on Gary Barnett at Colorado and may fall on Houston Nutt at Arkansas. With Bill Snyder's retirement at K-State and Barry Alvarez's at Wisocnsion, those are probably the four highest profile head coaching vacancies this year, w (I don't see how Dirk Koetter and Gary Pinkel are holding on, but that's just me).

K-State hired UVA offensive coordinator Ron Prince, which seems to be a mistake for a couple of reasons. First, UVA has underachieved under Groh. Second, I think they could've gotten somebody with HC experience. Third, they needed to go with a defensive guy. Arizona and Stanford have done that in recent years in the Pac 10, and I think that will pay dividends for them long term. You can always hope to hire a great DC, but in that league, a great defensive mind can transform and dominate.

Wisky went with Brett Bielemma, which probably looked like a better idea before the season when it was announced than after this season in which the Badgers were weak on D (and that's being kind).

Colorado is rumored to be interested in Auburn defensive coordinator David Gibbs, a Buff alum and former Denver Broncos coach. I think he's good, but not ready for the HC position. The admin probably screwed their chances at getting a big name, though, by the way they refused to back Barnett two years ago, threw him under the bus after he rode out the storm - and took the Buffs to 4 Big XII CGs in 5 years, winning one - and are now putting together a sham investigation in order to screw him out of $$. There's also some talk that Les Miles would be interested in the job, b/c he finds the stress and scrutiny of the "Tigah" nation and the SEC too much to handle. I hope Miles sticks around Red Stick for a while. LSU could be a dominant program with the right guy in charge, and if Miles left, they just might find the right guy.

At the top of the Ark wish list would be Butch Davis. I'm less impressed with Davis than most are. First, almost everybody off that '90s Dallas staff has flopped (yes, Dave Wannstedt, Norv Turner, and Dave Campo, I'm looking at you). Second, Davis himself flopped in Cleveland. Yes, he did well at Miami, but 1) who couldn't, and 2) he didn't win an NC there, unlike his 3 immediate predecessors, and his immediate successor. That will be a nice situation to walk into for whomever gets it though, at least at first. After two straight losing seasons, spirits are low in Piggyland, but the team improved dramatically over the course of the year, and played the SEC heavyweights - Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia - very tough after a disastrous start with losses to Vandy and the blowout to USC. All that young talent is getting ready to develop, and whoever is the coach next year will put up nice results.

Who should the Buffs and Hogs go with as their new guys?

The Ocho College Football Poll - Now with true transparency!!!

2005-12-08T07:47:00.000-06:00

In light of the revelations in both the coaches poll, and the Harris poll, and some of the moronic decisions made therein, here is the inaguaral Ocho poll, with one voter (so far), with others invited to join. Below is my top 25 and the reasons why. Heck, if the Harris is as crazy next year, we might be the other BCS poll.

So, with no further ado, here are my votes on the top 25, and a brief description of why:

1. Texas - Texas has looked far less vulnerable than USC, and hasn't had a close game since Ohio State
2. USC - Still undefeated, so does it really matter who is first?
3. Penn State - 1 second away from perfect, and the loss was close
4. Oregon - Lost to the then #1 team in the country - by 30
5. West Virginia - Lost to Va Tech, and swept its conference
6. Ohio State - The best ranked 2 loss team: losses came only to Texas and Penn State
7. Auburn - After a slow start against Ga Tech and some kicking troubles in Baton Rouge, the best team in the SEC
8. Georgia - Winner of the SEC, even though the Dawgs lost to #7
9. Notre Dame - Yeah. They played USC to the wire. Great. But they lost to Michigan State!
10. TCU - TCU gets recognition for beating Oklahoma and sweeping their conference. But they lost to SMU.
11. LSU - The Tigers lost to Tenn at home, but beat Auburn there. I don't get it. Also, they got hammered by the Dawgs in the championship game.
12. Texas Tech - Two losses: one to Texas, and one to, well, Oklahoma State.
13. Miami - Yes, Miami has only two losses. One came at the hands of FSU, who I don't have ranked. The other came to Georgia Tech. Doesn't quite compare with some of the other 2 loss teams.
14. Virginia Tech - Despite a good start, the Hokies have completely collapsed in every game that has mattered.
15. Alabama - Great defense, but absent offense since Tyrone Prothro got hurt.
16. Louisville - Only losses to West Virginia (top 10) and, well, South Florida. The Bulls were better than expected, but still . . .
17. UCLA - Got trashed by USC. And by Arizona. That's why they're at the bottom.
18. Wisconsin - The best three-loss team I have ranked. Losses came from Penn State, Ohio State, and, well, Northwestern.
19. Boston College - Losses to FSU and Va Tech - understandable. UNC - you kidding me?
20. Florida - The Gators get a slight penalty for just looking bad in their 2 of their 3 losses, plus the near miss with a much-improved Vandy.
21. Michigan - The best 4 loss team out there. In my mind, that still doesn't make it better than most 3 loss teams.
22. Georgia Tech - Hey, the second best team, recognized for Great Moments against Auburn and Miami, and penalized for losses to NC State and UVA.
23. FSU - Tommy beat Bobby again in the battle of the Bowdens. Then Bobby comes back and beats Va Tech. It's why this Bowden team gets a vote, and the other one doesn't.
24. South Carolina - Recognition of the Gamecocks successes with so little talent. PLus, a near miss at Georgia and Clemson follow up on the embarrassing score of 85-21 to the two SEC reps in the state of Alabama.
25. Boise State - My second mid-major, being recognized as its only losses came at Georgia, at Oregon State, and to Fresno State. Why not the Bulldogs? Late season collapse after the USC game, which helped ease USC into the #2 slot. Why not the Wolfpack? They beat Nevada and Nevada also lost to Wash. State and Colo. St.

So that's my top 25. Couple of my biases, right out of the way:
1. I don't like ranking teams with more losses higher than others with fewer, unless there are certain circumstances (mid-major vs. BCS; clear difference in quality of losses)
2. I don't like ranking teams that lost to another team higher than that other team (again, unless there are significant differences in seasons, i.e. Penn State vs. Michigan, Miami vs. FSU and Ga Tech, Auburn vs. LSU)
3. I have much love for the mid-major, despite TCU being the only team deserving of much love this year.

So post your votes, before the first bowl game (Dec. 20), and we'll compile the first-ever, pre-bowl, season ending Ocho Poll. Also, if you want to point out some other biases of mine that you can spot, let me know.

Playoff Pictures, Ideas, and Formulas

2005-12-06T08:28:00.000-06:00

Now that the BCS has breathed a sigh of relief, and has two and only two undefeated teams this season, I want to spend some time talking about playoff posibilities - what one would, could, or should look like, and who would be in it.

1. Four team mini-playoff
Let's start with the simplest - a four team playoff, that produces two winners who play for the national championship. The fairest way to do this would be to take the top 4 teams in BCS rankings (USC, Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State), match 1 and 4, 2 and 3, and let the winners battle it out. This system doesn't disrupt the bowls at all, especially with the addition of the "Plus One" game next year. You'd play all the bowls, let two of the big four be the playoff games, and then the two teams standing would go to "Plus One." Alternatively, this system would work if there was a final BCS poll after the bowls, prior to the MNC game, and the #1 and #2 at that point went to the game. Still, that would bear many of the same problems as the current system does.

2. Eight team playoff
This not one of my favorites, but it also has the benefit of not disrupting the current bowl setup too much. Again, the only fair determination would be to take the top eight schools in the BCS rnakings (though an argument could be made to take the 6 BCS conference champs, and the best ranked 2 at-large teams, similar to the current BCS system). In the first, our eight schools would be the four mentioned above, followed by Oregon, ND, Georgia and Miami. Using the BCS conference champs, our field would include USC, Texas, Penn State, West Virginia, Georgia, FSU, Ohio State, and Oregon. As you would need seven games (4, 2, 1), I would propose adding the Cotton Bowl and either the Gator or the Capital One Bowl as playoff bowls, followed up with a "Plus One" game.

3. The Sixteen Team Playoff - My Personal Favorite
I like this setup for one reason - it gives a shot to the have-nots. There are two styles, which I will call the Patterson and the Crawford methods. The Patterson Method would take the top 16 teams in the BCS (which this year would leave out FSU, the ACC champ, but include TCU, the MWC champ). The Crawford Method includes all 11 conference champs (yes, even Arkansas State from the Sun Belt) and the next best 5 teams. Why do I prefer this method? Quite simply, because it still provides a reward to winning a conference, and there is always the slight, small chance for a Cinderella team to pull a couple of upsets along the way. A 16 team playoff could either be played at home fields, or even divvied up like the NCAA baskteball tourney, or could accomodate some of the bowls (14 or 15 of them, depending on the use of a Plus One), leaving the others to continue on as they do now, or even set up an NIT-esque tourney.

But who would our participants be? Here are the Patterson playoff teams:
USC, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, ND, Georgia, Miami, Auburn, Va Tech, West Virginia, LSU, Alabama, TCU, Texas Tech, and UCLA.

Under the Crawford scheme, here would be the playoff field:

USC, Texas, Penn State, Georgia, West Virginia, FSU, TCU, Akron, Tulsa, Arkansas State, and Boise State, as conference champs, with Ohio State, Oregon, ND, Miami, and Auburn as the at-larges.

Either setup has #1 vs. #16, all the way down the line to #7 vs. #8.

Also, to see another version of a sixteen team playoff, visit College Football News's version:
http://www.collegefootballnews.com/2005/Bowls/CFNChampionshipSeries.htm

At the end of the day, what would the merits of a playoff be? No more Mythical National Championship. The champ would be determined on the field (though the field would be determined by polls). No more nightmare like 2004, where you have an unprecedented 5 undefeated teams walking into the bowls. No more nightmares in 2003, where you have 3 one-loss teams, with (mostly) equally good claims on the title game (Sorry, OU, you lost to K State in your conference champ - you shouldn't have been in that game). No more split titles. No more complaints from the non-BCS schools (under the Crawford Method, anyway) that they aren't included or given a fair shot - just prove it on the field.

Will it ever happen? Probably not anytime soon, as the current BCS setup is contracted through 2011. With Congress getting involved, though, and enough pressure from the fans (who, after all, provide the money that these teams get), some playoff, more likely the 4 team version, may eventually be in the works. Until then, marvel at the poll selections made by some of the coaches and the Harris voters, and the ability of the BCS to say that the system doesn't need to be fixed.

See how the coaches voted in the final poll

2005-12-05T10:43:00.000-06:00

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/front.htm

The coaches were forced to make this final ballot public. Some interesting notes are that Mack and Watson Brown have USC #1, Houston Nutt has Auburn #3, and Frank Solich is absolutely insane.

The BCS Bowls, and a correction

2005-12-05T08:48:00.000-06:00

In my previous post, I said that we had 3 teams bowling for the first time: Akron, UCF, and USF. Alas, I forgot the poor Indians of Arkansas State in their first bowl game. So to all those with any affiliation whatsoever to Arkansas State, I apologize for the mistake. Also, I apologize that your first bowl trip probably won't have much of a chance of turning into your first bowl victory.

Now, on to the BCS Bowls, and the continuing count of how badly I predicted the turnout this year:

The Fiesta Bowl (a.k.a. the All At-Large Bowl) - Notre Dame vs. Ohio State (10/50)
The Fighting Irish return to Arizona for a bowl, albeit a much higher profile one this year, while Ohio State gets its first BCS bid since winning it all in the Orange Bowl in 02. ND and tOSU have met only 4 times in their entire history, most recently in 1996. While this will be highly watched and highly profittable, I don't think this game will be close at all. Why, you might ask, since both teams are 9-2? Ohio State lost to #2 Texas by 2 points, and #3 Penn State by 7. ND lost to #1 USC by 3 and Michigan State in OT. The same Mich. State that both Ohio State and Penn State manhandled in conference play. It's be a good year, but you're not winning this one, Charlie Weis.

The Sugar Bowl (a.k.a. I think the Mountaineer is a little too interested in Uga) Bowl - Georgia vs. West Virginia (11/52)
West Virginia has one loss all year, to Virginia Tech, and pretty well dominated most of its Big East competition all year long. Georgia, meanwhile, is one long pass play (Auburn) and playcalling so conservative even Tom DeLay isn't comfortable (Florida) away from being undefeated. While the SEC has had a down year on offense, it has certainly had an up year on defense, and by the time this bowl rolls around, we'll get to see some good proof as to reason behind that. If it's because the SEC defenses were just that good this year, expect Georgia to spank WVU in much the same manner as it did LSU. If it's because the O's were just that bad, expect a back and forth game that Georgia manages to come away with. It'll be experience versus youth, and the old man under center for Georgia (hasn't Shockley been there since the firsth Bush administration?) will carry the day against the freshman that could romp in the Big East. Guess what, Pat White and co.? The SEC ain't the Big East, and the Dawgs will get this done. Still no call on whether on the Mountain Man will successfully woo Uga, though.

The Orange (Stay, and Get Your Condo, Coach) Bowl - Penn State vs. Florida State (12/54)
The two winningest coaches in all of Division IA history. Probably the two oldest coaches to ever face off in a bowl game (79 vs. 76). A team on the rise after 4 troublesome years out of the past five. A team seemingly in a freefall, despite winning its conference championship. A coach who is 6-1 against the other (though the six wins came against West Virginia, not FSU). The battle of the next generation running the offenses. While an 8-4 FSU and a 10-1 PSU doesn't quite have the same punch as a one-loss WVU or one-loss Va Tech (if they hadn't laid an egg, anyway), this matchup sure has plenty of drama surrounding. On paper, JoePa and the boys in blue should be able to advance him to being merely 5 games behind Bobby's boys (though I still protest the 30 odd wins Bowden received at what is now Samford as counting - why not count all of John Gagliardi's or Eddie Robinson's wins, then?). But FSU has been able to play up when it needed to (Miami, Boston College, Va Tech), despite looking awful in its losses (NC State, Clemson, Virginia, Florida). Really, at the end of the day, this game will be determined by one person: Michael Robinson. Penn State has cakewalked to victory most of the year, as long as Robinson didn't turn the ball over and played well. If there are less than two turnovers by Penn State on Jan. 3, the Nittany Lions get JoePa his first bowl win of the 21st century. If not, this game is a toss-up.

The Rose Bowl (a.k.a. Does this really need an alias?), National Championship Game - Texas vs. USC (14/56)
What does this game come down to? One thing - can USC continue to roll against a team that seems to be able to play defense? USC has looked far more vulnerable than the Horns all season long, without a significant difference in the quality of opponents (just plain awful Big 12 North and slumping A&M and Oklahoma vs. the Pac 10). Plus, the Trojans haven't had to face any team with a QB has mobile as Vince Young. While I think the talent levels in this one are close to equal, and I'd give Pete Carroll a nod as the better coach, the Horns stop Pete's bid to be the next Bud Wilkinson on Jan. 4. It'll be close, but the Horns have the better defense and have beaten the better of the two at-large BCS teams, and will bring home the hardware to Texas for the first time in all of the Ocho's writers lifetime.

That's it - that's my rundown on the bowls this year. May my picks be better than my predictions (a truly bad 12 of 56 - stupid LSU and Va Tech losing their conference championship games!).

The bowls, and the predictions

2005-12-04T19:55:00.000-06:00

In chronological order, and keeping count of reality versus my predictions:

New Orleans Bowl - Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss (0/2)
This is the first time North Texas hasn't won the Sun Belt, and gone to the New Orleans Bowl. While both teams have a 6-5 record, Arkansas State did it in the Sun Belt, as compared to North Texas, who would dominate the Sun Belt to lose this game. No question - So. Miss takes this one.

GMAC Bowl - UTEP vs. Toledo (1/4)
Up until the late season collapse by UTEP and Mike Price, which kept them from making it to the CUSA championship game, I would've given the edge to UTEP. The Miners seem to have run out of steam, while Toledo's three losses came to Fresno State, a surprise loss to the Chipewas of Central Michigan, and Northern Ill., keeping them out of the MAC title game. The Rockets still have Bruce Gradkowski, so Toledo walks away with a win.

Las Vegas Bowl - BYU vs. Cal (2/6)
While BYU has shown some improvement under the reign of Bronco Mendenhall this year (can we give this guy Best Coach's Name of the Year?), Cal still has some weapons despite a disappointing showing in the Pac 10 this year. The Cowboys of Wyoming took out UCLA last year, but the odds should be with the Golden Bears this year.

Poinsettia Bowl - Colorado State vs. Navy (2/8)
Neither of my picks made it to this one, but this one looks like a win for the Rams. Navy has managed wins against such perennial powerhouses such as Rice and Tulane, while losing to non-bowl bound teams Maryland and Stanford, and former Big East basement dweller Rutgers. The Rams have played tougher competition, and won't fold. Congrats to the Middies for making their third bowl in a row, but their record will fall to 1-2 after this one.

Fort Worth Bowl - Kansas vs. Houston (2/10)
Another blank for me in the prediction department, but I think I can predict this one. Kansas is 6-0 in Lawrence this year. They have an overall record of 6-5. The Cougars get to take one for CUSA this time.

Hawaii Bowl - UCF vs. Nevada (2/12)
The Golden Knights of Central Florida get their first bowl bid ever, and in a good location. Nevada, meanwhile, gave itself a share of the WAC title by upsetting the Fresno State team that had pushed USC to its limits. Seeing as Fresno State laid an egg the next week to La Tech (way to use that win against Boise State, boys), the Wolfpack's accomplishment looks that much worse. At the same time, UCF lost to the Golden Hurricanes to put a little rain into their Cinderella season this year. George O'Leary has done an amazing job this year, but I think Ault's Wolfpack bring home the hardware in this one.

Motor City Bowl - Akron vs. Memphis (2/14)
Speaking of teams with first ever bowl appearances - the Zips, as a result of their win over Northern Illinois, get to visit Detroit to take on the Memphis Tigers, taking a Big 10 slot due to Ohio State's selection as a BCS at-large team. Memphis, however, has been here before and has one of the best backs that's not going to the Downtown Athletic Club this year, DeAngelo Williams. With over 1800 yards, and averaging 6.5 yards a carry, Williams, and the Tigers, are going to be too much for the Zips to handle.

Champs Sports Bowl - Clemson vs. Colorado (2/16)
The Tigers, avoiding a post-South Carolina brawl, get to go bowling against the cream of the crop of the Big 12 North. Fresh off of a 70-3 shellacking by Texas, the Buffs aren't likely to put up much of a fight in this one. While Gary Barnett needs to rise up and win to perhaps maintain his position after back to back embarassing losses to Nebraska and Texas, Tommy Bowden's boys will win, and keep him off the hot seat for yet another win.

Insight Bowl - Arizona State vs. Rutgers (3/18)
Finally, I manage to get my third pick correct. Rutgers hasn't been bowling since 1978 (longer than at least one of our contributors has been alive), while Arizona State finished poorly after getting a good start. This is almost a home game for the Sun Devils, and as much as the Scarlet Knights want a bowl win, I don't see it happening here. Arizona State has too much talent, and Rutgers hasn't played in December in 27 years. Expect a Sun Devil win here.

MPC Computers Bowl - Boise State vs. Boston College (4/20)
This game is played at Boise State's home field, on the Smurf Turf. Boise State hasn't lost a game at home since 2001. Boston College - enjoy the trip from snowy Chestnut Hill to scenic and . . . snowy Boise. The Broncos take this one on the blue field, and once again we get to wonder at why there's a bowl game outdoors in Boise.

Alamo Bowl - Michigan vs. Nebraska (5/22)
The Wolverines may be the best 4 loss team in the country, as ridiculous as that sounds. Meanwhile, either the Huskers have figured out how to incorporate the forward pass into their game scheme, or Colorado really really really sucks. I tend toward the latter, and expect Michigan to win this one. Certainly Lloyd Carr needs to win this one, after yet another disappointing season capped off by a loss to Ohio State. Lloyd - remember John Cooper? Don't you miss him?

Emerald Bowl - Utah vs. Ga Tech (5/24)
So much for my streak of getting it at least half right. What is up with Georgia Tech? It manages wins against Auburn (poss. the best team in the SEC this season, and the only one to beat Georgia with a healthy D.J. Shockley) and Miami, yet managed to lose to NC State and Virginia (another schizo team this year). This one should be no contest, with the Yellowjackets winning easily, but I am always prepared for that unwelcome surprise from Ga Tech.

Holiday Bowl - Oregon vs. Oklahome (5/26 - noticing a trend here?)
Poor Oregon. One loss all season long, and it came at the hands of the #1 team in the country. Meanwhile, a two-loss Ohio State (to #2 and #3 respectively) gets that Fiesta Bowl bid. I tell you, the Ducks get no respect, which will continue if they can't manage to beat the limping Sooners. While Oklahoma is playing much better football than at the beginning of the season, the Sooners are still a 4-loss team. By the transitive property, since Oklahoma lost to UCLA who lost to USC much worse than the Ducks did, Oregon should win this one. However, expect a performance reminiscent of Cal's last year, as the snubbed team gets drubbed by the Big 12's representative. That, and to hear Boomer Sooner a lot.

Sun Bowl - Northwestern vs. UCLA (6/28 - yay! Another one right!)
The Wildcats have been competitive in a very tough Big Ten this year, and eplosive offensively, but its defense has been questionable. UCLA has been explosive at times on the offensive side of the ball, but its defense has been questionable, especially against the run. Expect a 66-63 shootout in this one. Who wins? Well, which team lost to Arizona this year? Not them.

Independence Bowl - South Carolina vs. Missouri (7/30)
The Old Ball Coach goes bowling again, and Brad Smith gets to try to close out a somewhat disappointing college career with a win against a legendary coach. Well, unfortunately for the Tigers, I think the Gamecocks are better coached, and are going to be better prepared. Spurrier's boys almost upset Georgia - expect a close game, but the W goes to the Cocks.

Music City Bowl - Minnesota vs. Virginia (7/32)
The Gophers return to Nashville to go bowling again, against the schizoid Cavs. After trying to figure out Virginia all year, I just can't call this game. Surely, Minnesota, with Lawrence Maroney and the dominating offensive line, should be able to beat a team that lost to UNC. Right? My gut tells me the Gophers win this one, but Virginia has a way of coming out and beating good teams, and losing to crappy ones. Don't be too surprised if the Cavs rise up again.

Peach Bowl - Miami vs. LSU (7/34)
Two conference also-rans. Maybe that's a bit harsh - for LSU, anyway. Miami had a spot in the ACC championship game locked up until an unfortunate loss to Georgia Tech. Seeing as Va Tech managed to fall, somehow, to the recently abyssmal Seminoles, maybe it's just as well they didn't get the rematch. Meanwhile, Les Miles's true colors shined through in an embarrassing loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Miami's losses - FSU and Ga Tech. LSU's - Georgia and Tennessee!!! Larry Coker, you get another 10 win season - Les, the death watch in Baton Rouge starts Dec. 30.

Meineke Car Care Bowl - South Florida vs. NC State (7/36)
My record keeps getting worse and worse, but this game gets an official "who cares?" from the rest of America. A 6-5 USF from a depleted Big East against a 6-5 NC State - why is this game being broadcast anywhere besides North Carolina and Florida? While the Bulls performed fairly well in their first year in the Big East, and are bowling for the first time (that's 3 this year), NC State played in what might have been the most competitive conference this season. Expect the Wolfpack to win this one.

Houston Bowl - Iowa State vs. TCU (7/38)
If not for a loss to SMU, TCU would be undefeated this season, and possibly be holding a BCS berth. Instead, they get to travel to Houston and take on Iowa State. The Cyclones, who for two seasons in a row have controlled their destiny to go to the Big 12 championship game and come up short, are probably outmatched by the Horned Frogs. Heck, had TCU played in the Big 12 North this year, they likely would've gone to Houston to get pummelled by the Longhorns. Expect the Frogs to win, and wonder about what could've been on the trip back to Fort Worth.

Liberty Bowl - Tulsa vs. Fresno State (7/40)
Fresno State comes into this game on a two game losing streak, while Tulsa rose up and snatched the CUSA title and title game shot from two other newcomers, UTEP and UCF. Give Pat Hill credit where credit is due - the 27 days from now until the bowl game is going to be enough time for him to settle his team down, and get it back to the point where it almost upset both Oregon and USC. The Golden Hurricanes are going to get doused by a well-prepared Fresno State team come New Year's Eve.

Cotton Bowl - Texas Tech vs. Alabama (8/42)
Does Alabama have Tyrone Prothro back? It doesn't - well, then expect the Red Raiders to win this one. The strange spread offense created by Mike Leach can move the bowl and score some points, and, more to the point, the Raiders can actually play defense this year. While Alabama has played wonderful defense all season long, it's offense has been nothing short of non-existent since Prothro was hurt in the Florida game. While the Tide may keep the Raiders out of the end zone for most of the game, I don't think Tech will need more than one touchdown to win this game.

Outback Bowl - Iowa vs. Florida (8/44)
I just don't know about this game, other than the defense will be tight, and the score will be low. Iowa finished the season relatively strongly, as did Florida with its win against FSU. Both teams stuggled, though, throughout the season on offense. Call this a toss up, and expect either some last minute score or overtime to decide this one. But, I'll flip the coin, and go with Florida.

Gator Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Louisville (8/46)
One of the best offenses this year against one of the best defenses and a competent offense, as long as the game doesn't matter. Thankfully for the Hokies, this game doesn't matter, though it will have national attention, since it is one of the more prestigious second tier bowls. Va Tech looked great all year, except for its two losses to Miami and FSU, where it looked awful in the first, and pedestrian in the second. Meanwhile, Louisville was unstoppable in Papa John's Stadium, but managed to lose to South Florida and West Virginia on the road. So, the question is: does Va Tech's inability to show up to the big game this year trump Lousiville's road troubles? I say yes, as the Hokies, falling from grace and out of a BCS bowl bid, don't have much to play for, while Lousiville has a little bit to prove this first year in the Big East.

Captial One (No, Dammit, it's the Citrus) Bowl - Auburn vs. Wisconsin (9/48)
As I said earlier, Auburn may very well be the best team in the SEC, and only inexplicable kicker troubles in Baton Rouge kept them from beating the Tigers of LSU. Wisconsin, meanwhile, after managing to win in the Big House, and hand Barry Alvarez his only win over Michigan, fell at Northwestern, at Penn State, and to a much improved from the first half Iowa at home. The problem for the Badgers, though, is that Auburn can play defense, and Wisconsin hasn't shown that much ability to do that this season. While the Badgers have also put up gaudy scoring numbers and yardage, they looked miserable against the two best defenses they played (Penn State and Iowa). Don't forget that nice 14-5 win over North Carolina, either. The Tigers take out their frustration at not being in a BCS bowl against the Badgers, who don't manage to send off Barry with one last bowl win.

Next up, and in the next post, the BCS bowls. So far, I'm a just plain awful 9/48 in my picks. Can't even make .500 at this point, and the championship games' results and Ohio State sneaking up to #4 in the BCS blew out a lot of my guesses about the BCS. So, what will happen in the Orange (Coaches who Could be Retirees) Bowl, the Fiesta (No Champions Here) Bowl, the Sugar (All-Redneck) Bowl, and the Granddaddy of them all, the Rose (For all the Marbles) Bowl? Stay tuned.

Chokie, Chokie, Chokie, Hi!

2005-12-04T10:26:00.000-06:00

Virginia Tech continues to be the best team in the country - as long as nobody is watching. Their performances in the two "spotlight" games this year were so painful to watch I was reminded of Marcus singing "Killing Me Softly" at his school assembly in "About a Boy." It's ironic that their latest undressing came at the hands of the Florida State Seminoles, the program once notorious for choking in the big games.

Say what you will about SC and Texas (I don't think either would be a serious contender in an 8 team playoff), but they performed at their highest levels when the stakes were the highest. Perhaps Mack Brown should give Frank Beamer advice on how to win the big game.

Reggie Bush must be really, really good

2005-12-03T17:22:00.000-06:00

He's running for a lot of yards against the 115 ranked run defense in the nation. Sigh. The Holiday Bowl is supposed to be on December 29 in San Diego, not Jan 4 in Pasadena.

The real Ocho grudge match

2005-12-03T15:18:00.000-06:00

Which Ocho contributor's team will win the Pontiac game changing performance? Alabama vs. So. Miss, Penn St. vs. N'western, Texas vs. Oklahoma State, or Auburn vs. Georgia?

Bowl Bids So Far - How Bad Were My Predictions?

2005-11-28T16:27:00.000-06:00

Here are the teams who have accepted bowl bids so far:

Arkansas State to the New Orleans Bowl (I picked La.-Monroe as the Sun Belt rep)
Colorado State vs. Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl (I had New Mexico vs NC State)
Toledo is going to the GMAC Bowl (I tapped Bowling Green as the MAC participant)
BYU is in the Las Vegas Bowl (Amazingly, I picked that one right, though not its opponent . . .)
The Insight Bowl matches Arizona State and Rutgers (I had Rutgers, and figured the Pac 10 wouldn't fill its slot, so I had Houston picking up the slack)
Utah is going to the Emerald Bowl (Hey, I had Colo. State to come from the MWC)
Fresno State is going to Memphis to play in the Liberty Bowl (And here I thought it would be TCU)
TCU, meanwhile, is travelling over I-30, and down I-45 to go to the Houston Bowl (See above for my thoughts on TCU)
The Cardinals of Louisville are going to the Gator Bowl (I think the Gator Bowl reps figured that ND would get its BCS bid, and, unfortunately, didn't like my pick of South Florida)

There you have it: Out of the 11 teams that have accepted bowl bids so far, I picked 2 correctly. 2 of 11 - at least I'm doing better at this than Syracuse did this year at football (that's what you get for taking the "men" out of your name, 'Cuse!)

Enough already: PSU vs. VT in the Rose Bowl

2005-11-25T15:05:00.000-06:00

The last two weeks have proven conclusively that the two teams shoved down are throats as #1 and #2 this year are vastly overrated. USC gave up 42 to Fresno. Giving up 42, anywhere, to anyone, in regulation should be an immediate disqualifier from a national championship game. Doing so to a WAC team at home is simply inexcusable. Reggie Bush is faster than people who are slow. We get it. Neither he nor LenDale White will be anywhere close to an every down back in the NFL. Playing against real defenses with real speed who can really tackle will be a shock to those guys. Here's hoping UCLA bails us out having to witness ABC announcers drool over the USC players in the Rose.

Texas hasn't played a team of note since week 2 in Columbus, a game they barely won. That was a great win for the 'Horns, but complacency has set in, as the "Big" XII simply doesn't require them to get better in order to roll through. We still see a team making the same mistakes. They can't take care of the football, and Chizik - who is a very good coach - still has the same schematic flaws he's always had, but no longer has the talent to compensate for it. They've now been challenged twice in the Big XII, which should be an automatic disqualifier from the BCS altogether. Texas was very fortunate to win today, as McGee missed wide open receivers right and left (Chiz still can't get the safeties in position), A&M dropped multiple sure INTs, missed on some fumble recoveries, Texas got a bad call on a fumble recovery, and A&M had the botched snap on the PAT. All this against a horrendous football with a losing record.

Let's hope the Coaches poll voters and Harris Poll voters grow a brain and a conscience and give us Penn State as #1 and either VT or LSU (assuming both win out) as #2.

My Bowl Predictions - Who's Going Where? (Maybe)

2005-11-20T10:49:00.000-06:00

From top to bottom, here come my bowl picks for the 2005 season, including what teams are likely to fill slots for those conferences that can't meet all their expectations. Starting with the big game . . .

1. Rose Bowl - Texas vs. USC
While there's a chance either team might stumble, opening up a place for PSU or LSU (if it wins out), neither has managed to do it yet. USC faces one more potential stumble against UCLA, while Texas should rout both A&M and Colorado, its likely Big 12 championship game opponent.

2. Orange Bowl - Penn State vs. Va Tech
24 hours ago, this would have been Penn State-Miami, but Miami has likely lost its ACC championship game slot to Va Tech, with the loss to Ga Tech last night. While the Orange Bowl has its choice of the ACC champ and the Big East champ, Va Tech probably gets the edge on WVU, assuming of course they take care of business against UNC and FSU first. Unless the Fiesta Bowl snags the Lions with their first pick (for losing Texas to the Rose Bowl), the Orange Bowl will snag them, as demonstrated by their presence at the PSU-MSU game yesterday.

3. Sugar Bowl - LSU vs. West Virginia
Why aren't the Tigers undefeated right now? Les Miles has to be hoping that not too many people are wondering how he managed to lose to a Tennessee team that not only isn't going bowling, but lost to Vandy yesterday. Expect LSU to beat Georgia to win the SEC (after beating Arkansas to get there), and WVU to win out and take the Big East.

4. Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Oregon
The all at-large bowl. As long as Notre Dame wins out, they'll be in the top 12 of the BCS rankings, and the Fiesta Bowl is likely to scoop them up with their first pick. While there will be other highly ranked teams available (Ohio State, Auburn), expect a loud noise from the West Coast if a one-loss Oregon isn't slotted in. With all the other remaining one-loss teams (if UCLA does lose to USC) likely to have wrapped up their conference championships, the BCS faces rebelliong from the Pac 10 if the Ducks don't go to Tempe.

5. Capital One Bowl - Ohio State vs. Auburn

6. Gator Bowl - Miami vs. South Florida

7. Outback Bowl - Wisconsin vs. Alabama

8. Cotton Bowl - Texas Tech vs. Georgia

9. Liberty Bowl - Central Florida vs. TCU
While the MWC champ no longer has a guaranteed slot in the Liberty Bowl, TCU is likely to be the biggest draw available to the Liberty Bowl, not locked up in a bowl committment.

10. Houston Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Navy
The SEC won't have enough bowl eligible teams to fill this bid, so expect Navy to move in for its third consecutive bowl.

11. Meineke Car Care Bowl - FSU vs. Louisville

12. Peach Bowl - Boston College vs. South Carolina

13. Music City Bowl - Florida vs. Iowa

14. Independence Bowl - Missouri vs. Virginia
Virginia takes the SEC slot.

15. Sun Bowl - Northwestern vs. California

16. Holiday Bowl - UCLA vs. Colorado

17. Emerald Bowl - Colorado State vs. Western Michigan
Western Michigan fills a Pac 10 slot.

18. Alamo Bowl - Iowa State vs. Michigan

19. MPC Computers Bowl - Boise State vs. Clemson

20. Insight Bowl - Houston vs. Rutgers
Houston fills in for a Pac 10 shortfall.

21. Champs Sports Bowl - Ga Tech vs. Nebraska

22. Motor City Bowl - Toledo vs. Minnesota

23. Hawaii Bowl - Tulsa vs. Fresno State

24. Fort Worth Bowl - Southern Miss vs. La Tech
La Tech takes the Big 12 slot here.

25. Poinsettia Bowl - New Mexico vs. NC State

26. Las Vegas Bowl - BYU vs. Arizona State

27. GMAC Bowl - UTEP vs. Bowling Green

28. New Orleans Bowl - ULa-Mo vs. Memphis

Week 12 and All is Well

2005-11-20T10:16:00.000-06:00

A weekly roundup, followed up by a preview of this upcoming week, starting off with my boys in blue . . .

1. Nittany Lions in the BCS - JoePa finally wins (at least a share of) his second Big Ten title, 11 years after the first one, and his first BCS bowl bid (though he's won them all before they were the BCS bowls). Though I firmly believe that Penn State should've stopped Michigan on that last play (for God's sake, Vandy could stop the Vols!), the Nittany Lions are only 1 second away from an undefeated season and BCS controversy. To top it off, as the Seminoles have continued to struggle this year, JoePa has cut Bowden's lead down to 5, with 353 wins to 358. Bobby and his boys still have 2 games to play (Florida and the ACC champ), so the margin may keep, but there's always next year. I've got the boys in blue slotted to play in the Orange Bowl, though Miami now looks like it won't be making it to the ACC championship game. Of course, if USC manages to drop one to UCLA (after pulling yet one more out of their ass to Fresno State - well done, Bulldogs. Pat Hill has shown that his boys will play anyone anywhere), or if either A&M or Colorado surprise the Longhorns, it'll be a cat fight between PSU and LSU for that #2 slot (assuming LSU wins out, of course).

2. The Iron Bowl - Though this was mostly a one-sided affair (Auburn had a 28-7 lead at the half, and, much like last year's Sugar Bowl, allowed its opponent to score points that makes it look much closer than it was), the participants had the highest rankings (9 and 11) for over a decade. Auburn, in winning, is pinning its hopes on Arkansas rising up against the other Tigers, while Alabama has seen its hopes for an at-large BCS bid fade away to nothing.

3. Vandy, there was this OTHER team in Tenn. too - Vandy finishes its season with an upset victory against the Vols, and breaks a streak of 21 (22?) years of losing to Tennessee. The Commodores end up 5-6, and not bowl-eligible, because they lost to that other team from Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State. The mighty Blue Raiders. To top it off, Vandy could've also beaten Kentucky, but failed to do that as well. Looking at their schedule, after their 4-0 start, Vandy dropped close games to 4 of the 6 teams that beat them. Florida, MTSU, S. Car., and Kentucky all won by a TD or less - a little bit more effort, and Vandy would've been bowling. Still and all, though, good run, boys, though your coach may be on the want list for schools looking for a change this year.

4. TCU wins MWC, goes undefeated . . . almost - Being such a fan of Cinderella teams, and anything that embarrasses the BCS, TCU could've been a contender, but for a pack of pesky Mustangs. Though once again the Frogs show that the Big 12 took the wrong private school from the SWC, it's still that entirely inexplicable loss to SMU that keeps them out of BCS contention. TCU is going bowling, but since the Libery Bowl no longer gets the MWC champ, no one knows where yet.

Preview of the big games of Week 13 -

1. The Lone Star Showdown - This one shouldn't be much of a showdown, right? Right? Well, maybe not, but A&M has three things that may make this more of a challenge than it should be to the Horns. One, it's in Kyle Field (though with mighty Baylor almost pulling off the upset, that may not mean much). Two, A&M needs this win to be bowl eligible and that may give them some more incentive in this game. Three, history has seen that whenever one of these two teams has clinched a berth in the Big 12 championship game, the other rises up and puts the smack down on them (98 for the Horns, 99 for the Aggies). Still, this Longhorn team should be able to march up and down the field against these Aggies. Expect a 49-10 blowout in this one, and a lot of sad faces in the Dixie Chicken.

2. Arkansas at LSU - The Tigers need to win this one to face Georgia in the SEC championship game. The Razorbacks need to win this one to, well, nothing more than be spoilers or pains in the ass. The Hogs aren't going bowling, whether they win or not, but LSU hasn't played with any consistency this year. The Hogs almost pulled off the upset between the hedges, and they'll be looking to do the same against the Tigers. Expect LSU to pull it out, to set up a showdown in Atlanta against the Dawgs, 20-10.

3. Virginia at Miami - With the Canes dropping one to the Rambling Wreck, they need to beat the Wahoos when they come to Coral Gables. Plus, they have to hope that UNC manages an upset win against the Hokies to win back their place in the ACC championship game, and a rematch against the Seminoles. The schizoid Cavaliers, who managed to beat FSU, yet lose to UNC, are a true wild card. Will the real Cavs please stand-up, so we can figure out what you're doing? All the evidence indicates Miami should just run away with this one, but the Cavs make it sticky.

4. The GA Bowl - The game with nothing on the line. Georgia has clinched its spot in the SEC championship game, and can only get to a BCS bowl if they win that game. Ga Tech, meanwhile, despite its upset of Miami, can't get to the ACC championship, and just wants a better bowl bid. This one is always nasty, and pits two dominant defenses against each other. I've got to give the Yellowjackets the edge, as the Reggie Ball-Calvin Johnson connection can take advantage of a Bulldog secondary that allowed Auburn to throw deep and set up the game winning field goal. Ga Tech takes this one, 17-14.

5. Gator eats Seminole, or maybe it's the other way around - Head south from Atlanta, and you find a similar situation. FSU has clinched its place in the ACC champ, while Florida is on the outside looking in. Neither is in the running for a BCS bowl bid, and both have coaches with something to prove. While Bowden hasn't faced the depths of badness that JoePa has, the Seminoles have managed to lose at least 3 games now for 5 years in a row. Urban Meyer, meanwhile, needs to show that his wunderkind status will be able to hold up against the big boys. Florida has the better QB, and the game is in the Swamp, so I've got the Gators chomping on Chief Osceola, 20-17.

Overrated Coaches

2005-11-15T13:51:00.000-06:00

In the spirit of balance, I wanted to take a look at some of the most overrated coaches, currently coaching, in no particular order:

1. Tyrone Willingham - Even though I think he was treated poorly by ND (though I don't think it was for racial reasons), his steady slide into mediocrity at ND and his abyssmal start at Washington makes me wonder if that 8-0 start was really a fluke. Aside from the Stanford game, each game in that start was very close, and could've potentially gone either way. That, or Bob Davie was a better recruiter than anyone gave him credit for. By 2004, when he should've had some of his own recruits, Ty limped to a 6-6 record. Perhaps this is unfair, and he would've had as similar success as Charlie Weis has had this year. I'll give him a couple more years at UW, but I think Ty got over-hyped, and couldn't live up to the expectations.

2. Jim Tressel, Ohio State - Yes, he won the NC his second year in with a lot of luck. But with all the scandals surrounding his old program at Youngstown State, and continuing scandals at tOSU, it makes you wonder how much of his success was done fairly. Mix that in with the inability to play offensive football (until the second half of this season), and his NC was won mostly with Cooper's recruits and a fella named Maurice Clarett (see scandals mentioned above), and it makes me wonder how good Mr. Tressel is. Still, he beats Michigan, so his job is secure, unlike his predecessor.

3. Tommy Bowden, Clemson - Doesn't he still just have a job cause he can beat his dad? Every year, Clemson has high hopes that are dashed by mid-season, then the Tigers somehow manage to pull out some unlikely victories down the stretch and just achieve bowl eligibility. I know the ACC is tough, but it's not like this is only the past couple of years. Perhaps Clemson's expectations are unrealistic, but Clemson lost to DUKE last year. That can get a IAA coach fired.

4. Al Groh, Virginia - See above. Hired with so many expectations, Virginia is, year in, year out, a schizoid team that loses games it shouldn't, but wins just enough to keep their coach his job. Just because he was a mediocre coach in the NFL doesn't make him a messiah to the college game (notable exception - Pete Carroll.) 4-5 losses a year is not the promised land.

5. Bob Petrino, Lousiville - Yeah, he did good things in the CUSA, with players John L. Smith recruited. Welcome to the Big East, and a loss to South Florida. While the Bulls seem to be a better team this year, the team that many (even myself) expected to make a big splash in the Big East, maybe even enough to continue to justify its BCS slot, has fallen flat. While WVU remains the team to beat in the Big East, Louisville struggled with an awful Kentucky, lost to South Florida badly, and lost that close game to WVU. While the Big East is a BCS conference, it doesn't necessarily provide tougher competition than CUSA, and Lousiville certainly isn't fulfilling anyone's expectations. Note to ADs: if you go coach hunting this season, leave Bobby out of it, okay?

Close calls, but I need more time to sort them out: Urban Meyer, Mike Stoops, George O'Leary, Dan Hawkins (looked so good last year, but lost his lock on the WAC this year)

Off this list, due to performances this year: Karl Dorrell, Larry Coker

(OT) Arrested Development was cancelled today

2005-11-11T20:49:00.000-06:00

For those of you unfamiliar (which, obviously, is a lot of you), Arrested Development is the best (non-cartoon) comedy in some time. It was cancelled today. I blame the Big XII.

Underrated coaches

2005-11-10T19:19:00.000-06:00

When people think about great active coaches, names like Bowden and Paterno come to mind. But there are a lot of guys that are doing a lot better than they "should" be doing given the programs that they've got to deal with. Football is the toughest sport in which to build a consistent winner (1 or 2 studs can radically change the fortunes of a basketball team much more so than a football team), but there are some guys that I think, if given enough time, could be the next Beamer. Here are a few:

1) Guy Morriss, Baylor - the guy won 7 games at Kentucky while Kentucky was on probation. He should've won 8, but Nick Saban and the LSU Tigers got ridiculously lucky in Lexington in 2002. Morriss has already beaten Baylor, and could easily have beaten them twice in a row. He could've beaten OU as well. Morriss could well be the next Grant Teaff at Baylor.

2) Randy Walker, Northwestern - Barnett did a great job in raising this program from the dead, but Walker has continued the success, and has them in a bowl game or in contention for one regularly.

3) Jim Grobe, Wake Forest - The best coach you've never heard of. The Deacs play hard, and, despite obvious talent disadvantages, will play smashmouth, old school football with anybody. If this guy ever gets talent, he could challenge, even in the rugged ACC.

4) Jeff Tedford, Cal - The Bears have disappointed a bit this year (he can erase that this Saturday with a win over the Trojans, though), but Cal is a consistent winner. A team that hadn't been to a bowl since 1996 has now had a winning season every year of the Tedford era. He's brought in a solid DC, and is emphasizing defense and the running game in the Pac-10. Those two things will make him competitive in that league for a long time.

Not on the list:

1) Mike Leach, Texas Tech - They were a 4-5 loss program before he got there, and that's what they've remained up to this point. This year, they'll escape that fate b/c they scheduled a bunch of high school teams in OOC and play in a Big XII down by Big XII standards. They will never be players on a national level with Leach there.

2) Steve Spurrier, South Carolina, - He's done a nice job this year, but everyone knew he's a good coach (even he's a bit overrated, though).

as the year winds down...

2005-11-09T21:57:00.000-06:00

i thought it might be fun to look back at our preseason bcs predictions. since i have the most to lose i'll go first. my picks:

Rose Bowl: Southern Cal v. Texas
Fiesta: Louisville v. Michigan
Sugar: Va Tech v. Florida
Orange: Iowa v. Tenn.

needless to say, i'm glad i didn't put any money on these. although, looks like i'll nail the rose (no biggie), and i've got a shot at the sugar.

upon reviewing earlier posts, i can't find any other bowl predictions. maybe joepa and i were swapping them in e-mail. if anyone else remembers where you made those picks, feel free to add to the thread.

Most impressive/surprising team this year

2005-11-08T17:49:00.000-06:00

congrats joepa. penn st. has been unbelievable this year. i will freely admit i expected a 5 or 6 win season at best. here's to beating the spartans and playing in a bcs bowl.

Who Should Be a BCS Conference, Anyway?

2005-11-08T16:20:00.000-06:00

There has been a lot of discussion on the relative strengths and merits of the inclusion of the 6 BCS conferences in the BCS. I've argued that 4, currently, are about of equal strength (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and SEC) year in and year out, with the Pac 10 usually being competitive, and the Big East, even before Miami's departure, being the lame duck. Another viewpoint would drop the Big 12 from the first list, and possibly even replace it with the Pac 10.

So, here are some stats, without commentary on what they mean, to add some more meat to this disagreement. All will consider only the time between now and 1996, the year of the formation of the Big 12.

National Championships:
SEC 3; Big 10 2; Big 12 2; Pac 10 2; Big East 1; ACC 1 (2 split champs)

Bowl records over that time span:
ACC: 26-22
Big 10: 31-28
Big 12: 30-33
Big East: 23-19
Pac 10: 22-26
SEC: 38-27

Week 11 - And then there were 3?

2005-11-07T13:05:00.000-06:00

Back from a bit of a schedule/Time Warner imposed hiatus (a full week and a half to fix my broadband), I've got some more insights about the season so far, predictions for what's to come, and a whole lot of love for my alma mater.

1. The Undefeateds - Now it's done to a troika of undefeated teams. USC, Texas, and Alabama are the only three teams that have managed to get this far into the season without a slip-up of some sort. Are all three going to make it to the end, setting up a BCS nightmare like last year's? I don't think so. Texas has a pesky and very exultant Kansas at home and a trip to College Station coming up. Despite Kansas's impressive win over Neb., and its stingy defense, Texas wins out at least until the Big 12 championship game. The OSU first half scare has kicked some more life back into the Longhorns, and don't expecet either of these games to be close. The championship game, likely to be a rematch against Colorado, is only scary because of Mack's past history to blow Round 2. Texas, however, has enough firepower to roll right past the Buffs again.

USC's path seams to have cleared up, following the losses by both Cal and UCLA. The only real danger to USC, who also seems to have learned the lesson of allowing first-half leads and more from its cross-town rival, is the fact that it still has three games in a row at Cal, against a scrappy Fresno State, and against a UCLA squad that will be seeking redemption come Dec. 3.

Alabama faces the toughest road of all three. With a depleted O-line, the loss of its biggest offensive playmaker, and a stingy defense and some field goals separating them from losses so far, Alabama faces 7-1 LSU, 7-2 Auburn, and, if it manages to get over the hump, either Georgia or Florida in the SEC championship game. Not a lot of talk has been made about Alabama being left out in the cold, but I've got to say this - if the Tide does manage to win all three of those games, it will have as much justification to argue for inclusion as Auburn did last year. In fact, Alabama may have a better argument, as it's non-con schedule at the very least has all Div I-A teams. Do I think it'll happen? No, I think the Tide's offensive impotence will catch up to them at least once in that stretch, but if it doesn't expect even more controversy come January.

2. TCU Kicking Itself Again - TCU has clinched the MWC chamiponship, and is likely to end its season undefeated in the MWC. Leading once again to the question - how did the Horned Frogs manage to lose to SMU? The only more inexplicable lost to date is LSU's loss to Tennessee, which I can at least chalk up to Les definitely not being more. While TCU wouldn't have been in the NC mix, it could've followed on Utah's heels, and help strengthen the argument that perhaps the Big East's BCS slot should be moving westward.

3. Coaching report cards - Enough of the season has passed, and the new coaches this year have played enough that we can start separating the wheat from the chaff:
Top of the class: Charlie Weis at ND, Terry Hoeppner at Indiana (not the worst in the Big 10 this year), Steve Spurrier at SC
Drop-outs: Dave Wannstedt (Pitt), Hal Mumme (NM State), Mike Gundy (OSU), Greg Robinson (Syracuse)
Sophomore Honorable Mentions: George O'Leary at UCF, Mike Price of UTEP. Welcome back from the penalty box, boys.
On the Hot Seat: Bill Callahan (Neb.), John Bunting (UNC), Rich Brooks (KY)
Coach of the Year: Got to give it to either Charlie Weis or Greg Schiano of Rutgers, for doing so much with so little. Honorable mentions to Guy Morriss at Baylor, and Bobby Johnson at Vanderbilt.

Games of the week -

1. Northwestern at Ohio State - Time to see if the cardiac 'Cats can keep it up again. Northwestern's offense ought to challenge the Ohio State defense, while the OSU offense, if it can get moving, ought to be able to score points against Northwestern's suspect defense. Expect a shoot-out, with the Buckeyes walking away with a 45-38 victory at the end. Half of those OSU points will be scored by its defense or special teams, so be prepared for some back and forth basketball on grass.

2. Florida at South Carolina - This match-up between old coach and old team proves far more compelling, following Florida's near loss to Vandy in the Swamp, and SC's team remaining in the hunt for a better bowl bid. Spurrier has managed wins not thought possible with what he inherited from Lou Holtz, whereas Urban Meyer is still struggling to play with the big boys. Florida has the talent - SC has the better coach. This one is too close to call for me.

3. USC at Cal - Not a battle of undefeateds, but still a tough test for the Trojans. Cal is the only team to beat them since in nearly 3 years (the win streak started AFTER the 2003 Cal game), but this is not last year's Cal. No Kyle Boller or Jeff Tedford - instead, the ever-unpredictable Joe Ayoob. Still, this game starts off the grind for USC to win out, and the game is in Berkeley. Expect a close game, but USC prevails in the end 35-33.

4. LSU at Bama - LSU has an offense, at times. Not this past Saturday, though, so I expect a battle of good defenses. Bama seems to have the better defense, but you can't count on all your TDs coming on defense against a team like LSU, and one field goal probably won't cut it. Expect the Tide to stop rolling this week, when the Tigers come to town, in a real barnburner, where the total score may be less than 2 digits.

5. Auburn at Georgia - Another set of Tigers go traveling, when the Plainsmen meet up with the Bulldogs of Georgia. This game may well depend on whether D.J. Shockley is able to play, and if Mark Richt will actually let his backup QB play some offense. Without Shockley, and an uber-conservative game plan from Georgia, Auburn's good D and better O win this game. With Shockley, I think this game is a toss-up, with Georgia getting a slight edge since it's between the hedges.

The Penn State Report -

No game this week, as the Lions get to prepare for one last game at MSU. Penn State is one win away from clinching the Big Ten, JoePa's first BCS bowl berth, and years of "what ifs?" looking back at that last second loss to Michigan. Let's be honest - Penn State would be on the outside looking in if it finished as a third or fourth unbeaten this year. That, and as stout as the D has been all year long, Michigan shouldn't have been in position to win with one second left at the end of that game. However, this year is an unqualified success for the boys in blue, and Penn State has exceeded just about everyone's expectations. We're going bowling, and I think it might be on New Year's Day.

Most disappointing team of 2005

2005-10-30T17:54:00.000-06:00

Tennessee.

Runner up: Purdue:

Honorable mention: Louisville, Texas A&M, Pitt, Arizona State.

The Fowler tape: Is Tuberville vindicated?

2005-10-27T15:53:00.000-05:00

Tommy Tuberville recently criticized ESPN as being too powerful and agenda driven, accusing Mickey's sports network of hyping particular teams for the national championship b/c of their high profile QBs and contracts ESPN and ABC have with certain conferences. The following is a link to a tape of Chris Fowler of ESPN's Gameday being interviewed by Texas players David Thomas and Michael Huff where Fowler indicates that the Gameday crew does indeed like matchups it can "hype," that they're driven by their own "agendas," and that he wants to see Vince Young and Texas vs. Matt Leinart and USC in the Rose Bowl.

Forward to around the 17 minute mark:

http://hornsblog.blogspot.com/2005/10/ut-gameday.html

Is Fisher DeBerry right?

2005-10-26T23:09:00.000-05:00

In one of the major college football controversies of the week, Air Force coach Fisher DeBerry is in hot water for suggesting that black people (or "Afro-Americans", as he likes to call them) run faster than white people.

As someone who lived close enough to Atlanta in 1996 to attend track and field olympic events, I can honestly say that when France and England are represented exclusively by black people in their track and field events that might be considered a clue. Does anyone disagree with DeBerry's comments?

Defense rules

2005-10-25T20:41:00.000-05:00

As expected, 8 of the top 10 teams in the NCAA's total defense rankings are from the Big 3 conferences: SEC, ACC, and Big 10. Texas of the Big XII is in this year after adding Gene Chizik, an SEC defensive coordinator. It's no wonder those are the three best leagues in college football, by quite a bit, and the only 3 that should have automatic BCS bids (the SEC should get one for each division).

props please

2005-10-23T11:43:00.000-05:00

about a month ago i predicted the texas/texas tech score would be 55-17.

final score: 52-17

just call my 900 number to get next week's winners free!

texas v. usc in the polls

2005-10-23T11:16:00.000-05:00

i sure hope texas picks up some 1st place votes in the polls. after the last few weeks, it seems evident that texas is fielding a more complete team. usc is an offensive juggernaut, but their defense is a sieve. and i disagree with pundits who assume usc's defense will just "get better" as the season progresses. we are in week 9 and their defense is running out of time. i don't think they could hold texas under 40. the question is, can the texas defense hold them under 40?

The unbeatens... (and which ones will lose)

2005-10-23T08:06:00.000-05:00

After Texas annihilated Texas Tech, we are left with 6 unbeaten teams in college football a little past the midpoint of the season. However, by the end of the season, we can expect that only 2 teams will be left standing. Let's look at the potential landmines left on each unbeaten team's schedule, and which teams will be the first to lose:

Georgia: Georgia will lose next week against Florida. Simply put, the Bulldogs will be playing a quarterback making his first start against a dominating defensive team. Much has been made about how Leak has not adjusted to the spread offense, but let's remember that Florida was competitive against a strong LSU squad, and that they beat Tennessee. After Shockley's injury, Georgia was outscored by Arkansas 13-6. If Georgia pulls off a miracle this coming weekend, their luck will certainly run out when facing Auburn in two weeks.

Virginia Tech: While everyone else keeps praising the Hokies, I see a flawed team. I think Vick can get rattled -- indeed, he threw 3 picks against Maryland. Maryland simply wasn't good enough to capitalize on those mistakes. That will not be the case against quality teams like Boston College and Miami, both of thom the Hokies get at home. I think Virginia Tech's perfect season comes to an end during this stretch, most likely to the Hurricanes in an epic, defensive battle.

Alabama: The reason I did not rank Alabama at the beginning of the season is because I figured Shula would make some asinine decisions that would cost Alabama key personnel throughout the season (and I thought a shaky offensive line would lead to Brodie Croyle's season ending by now). With an average head coach, I stated Alabama would win the SEC West and finish in the top 15 nationally. Fast forward to the midpoint of the season, and Alabama is looking just like the "if only..." team they were last year. Despite a 6-6 record last year, there was a feeling amongst the Alabama faithful that the Tide could have gone undefeated last year. Usually, I dismiss such talk as Tide fans looking through their Crimson colored glasses, however, we actually had a point last year. Shula's decision to keep Croyle in against Western Carolina despite a 30+ point lead led to end of Croyle's season, and, not surprisingly, Alabama's season. This year is no different in that Tyrone Prothro's injury will likely cost Alabama an undefeated season. With Prothro, Alabama keeps the defense honest, and is allowed to open holes for Ken Darby. With the passing attack dangerous, Alabama would have been able to navigate around potential landmines LSU and Auburn. However, with a limp passing attack, the games against the latter two teams will prove too difficult a task. Look for Alabama's dream season to end in the absolute worst imaginable fashion -- a loss to the hated Auburn Tigers in the final game of the season. (Why not against LSU? Because the schedule breaks favorably for the Tide. Alabama should be able to get the young wideouts some invaluable work against Utah State and Miss State, and I believe these reps should be enough to beat out a tough LSU team.)

I think the above 3 teams will lose this year, and thus, given that USC and UCLA play each other, we will only have 2 unbeaten teams this year. Texas will play the winner of the USC-UCLA game for the national title.

OT: after 28 years of frustration and longsuffering

2005-10-19T23:11:00.000-05:00

The astros are playing for the world championship of professional baseball. i'll take the astros in 7, oswalt on the mound to wrap up the series in chicago. great, i am dog tired, but i may not get any sleep until saturday night.

I foresee a big weekend in the Heart of Dixie

2005-10-18T13:28:00.000-05:00

Both Alabama schools should win handily, setting up an Iron Bowl for all the marbles, the likes of which we haven't seen since at least '94.

Tenn should be able to dominate Alabama on both lines of scrimmage, as even OM was able to do. However, assuming Alabama doesn't continue to get receivers hurt, Brodie Croyle and that talented bunch of WRs should have a field day vs. the Vol secondary. (Jason Allen wasn't a big time SEC safety, much less a CB). Darby has also made that O-line look better than it is. Shula isn't my favorite coach, but he has had the Tide up for all 4 games vs. Tennesee and Auburn. He knows which games really matter to the Tide faithful, and has had the team playing well against them, even when they weren't the better team. This year, they are better than Tennessee, and they will beat them in Tuscaloosa this weekend, 31-14.

Auburn invades LSU, and brings the #1 scoring offense and #1 scoring defnese in the SEC with it. Brandon Cox has gotten the first road game jitters out of his system. After a shaky first half, Cox threw for 3 second half TDs in Fayettenam in a game described as "the game of the year," and "the Super Bowl" for Arkansas. Now, he and West Coast Offense guru Al Borges get to take aim at Bo Pellini's pass "defense" (see my post on Pellini from a couple of weeks ago). Auburn won't be able to run the ball effectively against LSU (the Bayou Bengals lead the SEC in run D, allowing just 69.8 ypg), but look for a barrage of TDs from Cox and WR standouts Ben Obomanu and Devin Aromashodu. Also, this is the game that made Courtney Taylor a superstar last year. After a disappointing '05 campaign thus far, look for CT to score at least once in Red Stick.

Auburn 38, LSU 17.

Week 8 - BCS Poll is Out

2005-10-17T18:38:00.000-05:00

After having recovered from the pain of that last second loss to Michigan at the Big House, I return with my thoughts about the season so far, my games of the week this week, and the Penn State Update.

#1 - And then there were 7 - Only seven teams remain unbeaten this week, as PSU and FSU both fall out of the mix. These undefeated teams are clustered, with two each in the Pac 10, Big 12, and SEC, and the lone remaining team in the ACC. So what are the chances to these teams to stay undefeated?

Let's start with Va Tech, who thankfully for it has no undefeated teams left on its schedule. That having been said, the Hokies have to beat BC, Miami, Maryland, Virginia and UNC to stay unbeaten, plus a likely game against FSU in the ACC title game if they run the gauntlet. Va Tech has yet to really be slowed down by any opponent, with their closest game being a 34-17 win over WVU. I think the Hokies have both the talent and the schedule to make it, as both the BC and Miami games are in Blacksburg.

Going alphabetically by conference, we come to the Big 12, with the other Lone Star State Showdown this weekend, as Texas Tech comes to Austin to try to upset the Longhorns. Maybe I'm giving Tech too much credit, but I don't think this going to be the blowout most everyone else expects. Texas has a good D, but a defensive coordinator untested against the craziness that is Mike Leach. That having been said, if it does become a shootout as I predict, Texas still has the weapons to take this one and mow down its remaining Big 12 opponents. Tech, if by some chance they win, still has the potential to struggle with both a resurgent OU and Texas A&M (if they manage to pull their collective heads out of their, well, you know). Texas has the edge, and is likely to be going to Houston to face Colorado (probably) in a rematch for the Big 12 title. Last time that happened, the Longhorns lost, after a similar early season pasting of the Buffs. I wouldn't expect history to repeat itself this year. Look for Texas to go all the way.

Next up is the Pac-10, which also features a battle of its unbeatens, USC and UCLA, on 12/03. I don't expect that game to be between undefeateds, and could be between two one-loss teams. UCLA, while playing much tougher than recently, has had to pull out last minute wins against the likes of Washington and Washington State. With both the Beavers and the Sun Devils waiting for them, I expect UCLA to have lost at least one game before the Battle for LA. USC, meanwhile, has become the Luckjans this year, with three come from behind victories in a row now, capped by the very questionable aid of Reggie Bush to get Leinart into the end zone this past Sat. With both Cal and Fresno State before the UCLA game, USC has every opportunity to lose. Unfortunately, for fans of everyone else, USC has just demonstrated the mojo to pull a win right out of their ass, when you least expect it. Despite the hopes of the rest of college fandom, USC will manage to pull at least three more (probably the other two will be closer than they should be too) wins, and run the table.

Finally, we get to the SEC and Bama and Georgia. We'll take the east one first. UGA goes all the way to the championship game of they beat Florida this year, without a loss. They get Auburn at home, and will be flushed with victory if they manage to steal one from the Gators (very doable this year). Auburn may give Georgia a hard time, but again, the Bulldogs have just been winning this year. If Auburn can walk out of Death Valley with a win, check back with me next week. Bama? 13-10 win over Ole Miss? I don't think so - they'll lose to LSU, and probably Auburn as well. Georgia, meanwhile, if they manage to not get tripped up before the SEC title game, will face either LSU or Auburn, and manage to once again almost go undefeated.

So there you ahve it - my mid-season prediction that Texas and Va Tech should win out, and USC shouldn't but probably will anyway. What does that mean?

#2 - BCS rankings - It means the Hokies get to be this year's Auburn. Texas has a pretty commanding edge over the Hokies, which seems pretty insurmountable at this point if both win out. Again, now that we're here at mid-season, I'll update my BCS bowl picks, and start throwing in some of the other bowl picks as the season continues. Here's what I think the BCS will look like this year: undefeated champs of the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 10 Va Tech, Texas, and USC; Big Ten champ Penn State (I think we have only two touch games left, Wisc. and at MSU, and I think we take them both, even without Derrick Williams); Big East champ WVU (Bye bye Louisville, and welcome to a BCS (kind of) conference);, and SEC champ LSU. Throw in FSU and Texas Tech as your at large teams, and the bowls look a little something like this:
Rose - USC v. Texas; Sugar - LSU v. Va Tech; Orange - WVU v. FSU; and Fiesta - Texas Tech v. Penn State.

#3 - TCU, What the hell? - I'll make this call now. TCU is going to finish out the rest of the season without anymore losses, win the MWC in its first year in, and look back at the SMU game. I guess that's why we actually play the games . . .

Games of the Week -

1. Va Tech at Maryland - One of the remaining roadblocks to a perfect season, the Terps look to be beaten by the Hokies. Expect them, though, to test them as much as WVU did. This one will be won by less than 10 points, but I think the Hokies roll on with a 31-24 win at Maryland.

2. Ohio State at Indiana - Terry Hoepner has done amazing things with the Hoosiers this year, including getting fans excited about Indiana football. The Hoosiers have been playing people a lot closer than expected, and this one is at home. Ohio State may have an off day, but will probably still manage to pull off a win. I give this one to the Bucks, 27-17.

3. Texas Tech at Texas - I went into detail above, but I'll repeat my score: Texas 48-45.

4. Tennessee at Alabama - Who wins this one? Who knows? Both teams have been sporadic, but the edge has to go the Tide, with the game in Tuscaloosa. Alabama 14-10.

5. Auburn at LSU - Ah, the Tiger fight! The joy of having teams with the same mascot in the same conference playing. LSU showed it could gut it out against Florida, and still can't quite figure out how it lost to Tennessee. Meanwhile, Auburn has gotten back on track after the unfortunate earlyt loss to a Ga Tech team that's looking worse and worse. The home Tigers have the edge - it's a night game in Baton Rouge. No matter what happens, there will be drunken revelry all day long, but LSU walks away with another squeaker 17-14.

And now, the Penn State Update

Penn State at Illinois - So we don't have Derrick Williams? So it's on the road? So it's homecoming for the Illini? Sorry, Illini, this is a win. Illinois will keep alive its bid to remain winless in the Big Ten (I feel your pain - I really do), after being whipped by 36-13 by Indiana. Indiana! That, and my boys are going to be hungry for a win. We'll call off the dogs in the third quarter, but we win this one 44-7.

What might the BCS poll look like if it came out today?

2005-10-13T21:57:00.000-05:00

Well, sports fans, it's almost THAT time of year again. Come Monday, it'll be all right; Come Monday, major conference commissioners will be holdin' each other tight. They've spent thousands of days in that brown lonely haze (of clinging to a sucky system), and they just want that poll back by their side. So it will be, come Monday, October 17, when the first BCS poll of 2005 comes out. What will it say?

Well, clearly, we don't know, b/c we don't know what will happen this weekend. Also, our ability to ascertain where everything would be right now is impaired b/c two computer polls - Kenneth Massey's and Peter Wolfe's - aren't out yet, and won't begin to publish until the BCS poll beings to publish. But, dear readers, I'm here to tell you that based on our imperfect knowledge, we may be in for a surprise, if everything holds as is. The Texas Longhorns - a clear, solid #2 in the polls we've seen thus far - may not be in such a solid position (and indeed, may not be #2 at all). Texas 2005 could be in the position of Auburn 2004 should 3 BCS teams go unbeaten.

Here are the caveats,a nd then the numbers:

1) I had to run two sets of calculations, b/c we don't have the Massey and Wolfe polls. Set 1 takes the 4 that we have now, and makes the simplifying assumption that these are the four that are kept. Set 2 took the average of those four and assigned those as the values for the other two for each team, and then dropped the highest and lowest. Each calculation affected different teams in different ways.

2) Both sets of calculations assume that Massey and Wolfe will affect all teams in precisely the same way, which is almost certainly not going to be the case. Massey was the first to go for USC over OU as #1 last year, and one of only two that ultimately did so. His formula may offer something wild and crazy.

3) The human voters haven't yet settled on a consensus #3 yet. Texas is currently a strong #2, as was Oklahoma a year ago. However, a year ago, chasing SC and OU was not only Auburn, but also unbeaten Wisconsin and Miami from BCS conferences. Ultimately, Auburn closed the gap with OU when it become the only remaining challenger, pulling even one week, and ultimately finishing relativley close (much closer than Virginia Tech, the current human choice as #3 is to Texas). That means that the current numbers are inflated to favor Texas.

4) I wasn't a math major, so check my work. The current formula gives the following weights:

1/3 to the Coaches' Poll
1/3 to the Harris "Interactive"(don't know WTF that means) Poll
1/3 to the average of the 6 computer polls, excluding the highest and the lowest for each team.

The components are calculated by dividing the # of points for each team divided by the total number of points availabe in the human polls (the denominator is 2850 in the Harris Poll, and 1550 in the Coaches' Poll). In the computer polls, the teams are assigned the inverse relative value of their rank on a scale of 25 (being ranked #1 = a 25; being ranked #25 = a 1).

The values of each component are expressed from a minimum of .0000 to a maximum of 1.000, summed, and divided by 3. Here goes.

Set #1

1. USC .9709
2. Texas .8946
3. Va. Tech .8900
4. Georgia .8736
5. Fla. State .8729
6. Alabama .7330
7.Penn St. .7317
8. Miami .7291

Set #2
1. USC .9709
2. Va. Tech .8866
3. Texas .8796
4. Fla. State. 8761
5. Georgia .8703
6. Penn St. .7837
7. Alabama .7547
8. Miami . 7341

The picture gets bleaker for Texas when one considers that Va. Tech has two of the top 8 remaining on its schedule, FSU has one, and UGA and Bama would have one each if each remains unbeaten.

I think this is all academic, b/c we won't have a repeat of last year. USC is going to lose, both SEC unbeatens are going to lose, PSU - #1 in the computers under both sets of rankings right now - is likely to lose, and VT one of VT and FSU is guaranteed to lose. However, it's still interesting to see that the computers still exercise the veto power that has spurned Miami, USC, and Auburn in recent years, and threatens to do the same to Mack Brown and Texas this year.

It could happen, so you better watch.

UPDATE: SynTex from Hornfans has apparently seen the Kenneth Massey poll (It's not linking off of the BCS website), and has a set of calculations showing Texas holding a precarious lead over VT at #2, by a margin of .0014.

Don't buy the hype on Texas Tech

2005-10-12T21:00:00.000-05:00

I know this post will put me at serious risk of being kicked out of the JoePaUberAlles wedding, but it must be said. This website was founded to rail against the biases and misleading directions of the establishment college football media, and there's nothing those people love more than passing the damn football for no particular reason. And so the media have found a soulmate in Mike Leach.

It's tempting to fall in love with Mike Leach. As football coaches go, he's clearly an oddball. For starters, like Dennis Franchione and Charlie Weis - and no other head coach in the post-David Cutcliffe era - he didn't play college ball. He's clearly an intellectual, with a law degree and an avid interest in things like art and literature. With some football coaches - R.C. Slocum comes to mind - it's obvious that they couldn't do anything else. Not so with Leach. Such a bright guy with a famously engaging personality could have made his bones in many a profession. Additionally, his creativity has paid dividends. He's had a nice run putting up some nice numbers on some teams with more talent than his desert squadron, and some down right gawdy numbers on some with equal or lesser talent.

But, alas, though ESPN Magazine did a huge story about Leach and his "winning big" in Lubbock, a 4-5 loss program he inherited, and a 4-5 loss program he has run. Now, alas, his Red Raiders are unbeaten, knocking on the door of rankings never before seen in the dry county in which Tech sits, and thought - dare I say even by the Ocho's resident Longhorn?! - as a potential roadblock to Mack Brown's following in the footsteps of Roy Williams (the coach, not the WR or DB). Fear not, fellow (sort of) teasips. This Tech team poses no threat to Texas, and Leach's program has peaked and is fading in the Big XII.

But, you may ask, how can that be? The Red Raiders are off to a fast 5-0 start and wowing the voters. First, let's admit that their first 3 games don't really count. Second, let's look at broader trends. I too, friends, was once enamored of the Chinese fire drill that is Coach Leach's offense. It's fun to watch, and can confound even the savviest eye at first glance. However, even the defensive wasteland that is the Big XII (38.8 ppg in 5 bowl games vs. teams from BCS conferences a year ago) has begun to catch on to Leach's gimmicks. Dont' get me wrong: his gimmicks are effective at first. Looking at the TT O-line, one's first resppnse is simply "they just don't space themselves that way. They just DON'T." Ultimately, there's a reason why they don't, and a reason why offenses usually use a tight end and a fullback to block, and actual running plays to run. But the TT shtick can be hard to handle at first b/c it's just so . . . weird.

But once the newness wears off, friends, it's all over for Mr. Leach and his tortilla throwing buddies. Last year, every coaching staff that had seen Leach before did better against him than it had previously. This year, that trend continues. Kanas - lowly Kansas - despite trading a home game in Lawrence for a road game in Lubbock, held Texas Tech to 158 fewer total yards and one fewer offensive TD. Nebraska (of we suck and barely beat Pitt fame) - cut the Raiders' point production in half from a year ago. The lesson? Even in a bad defensive league, people are catching up with Texas Tech. Gene Chizik and Carl Torbush have proven that they can hang tough in a good defensive league, so Texas and A&M ought have nothing to worry about, and the Raiders are likely headed back to another 4 loss season.